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2017 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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Old May 22, 2017, 6:21 am
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Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing

NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
    2. Executive Platinum
    3. Platinum Pro
    4. Platinum
    5. Gold
  • Upgrade type
    1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
    2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
    3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
  • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months

  • Booking class

  • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

U]Link[/U] to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 22 May 2017 by JDiver
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2017 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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Old Sep 20, 2017, 2:02 pm
  #646  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, BA Gold, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,989
Originally Posted by Stripe
On another trip, I waited and a good fare/schedule combo turned up on DL and I took it. Previously I would have already locked in my trip on AA.
I've also chosen DL over AA at times this year, but for a slightly different reason...

With last-minute purchases, DL often has very competitively priced F fares (actually G/A/P).

It's interesting that, despite AA clearly switching to more of a revenue model for its FFP like UA and DL, they haven't seemed to monetize domestic F the way the others have. Perhaps this is in the works for AA, but I haven't seen strong evidence of it yet.

I've been fairly loyal to AA, but when I'm buying last-minute and it looks like an upgrade may not clear on coach ticket, I'm often perfectly willing to pay for J/F. However, I won't give AA $800 when I can fly DL up front for $350 (to use a recent example).

Last-minute premium cabin purchases are generally significantly cheaper on DL than AA, so DL has gotten my business in this situation.

Originally Posted by Stripe
I really miss the time of request as the determinant of priority. One could look at the Y seat map and get a good idea where one would be on the list. Now it is completely unpredictable.
I agree that the upgrade game has become a bit more difficult to predict on AA for EXPs, primarily due to the EQD component and the addition of CK as a separate, higher priority, tier. To be fair, though, for the reasons I mentioned above (cheap last-minute F and/or discounted buy-ups just prior to departure), it's probably still more of an upgrade "lottery" at UA or DL.
metallo is offline  
Old Sep 20, 2017, 6:43 pm
  #647  
nrr
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: jfk area
Programs: AA platinum; 2MM AA, Delta Diamond, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 10,291
Is AA being nicer (now) in upgrading?

I fly AA 1263 (non-stop) from JFK-LAS (dep. 7:45 am) fairly often. FC is always fully occupied*. I've been tracking J availability on EF over the last several days, it varied between J0 and J1 almost daily. About 30 minutes ago it was J1 (again). 15 minutes ago I was upgraded.^ [My flt is tomorrow]
I'm happy about getting upgraded (of course), but I would have thought AA would have waited until close to departure time before issuing upgrades.
*On one 1263 they used a 767-300 (WB) and all upgrades cleared, I think there were a few empty FC seats. (Per seat map I'm still on a 737.)
nrr is offline  
Old Sep 20, 2017, 7:59 pm
  #648  
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Programs: Alaska Gold 75K, AA EXP, United 1K
Posts: 472
Originally Posted by nrr
I fly AA 1263 (non-stop) from JFK-LAS (dep. 7:45 am) fairly often. FC is always fully occupied*. I've been tracking J availability on EF over the last several days, it varied between J0 and J1 almost daily. About 30 minutes ago it was J1 (again). 15 minutes ago I was upgraded.^ [My flt is tomorrow]
I'm happy about getting upgraded (of course), but I would have thought AA would have waited until close to departure time before issuing upgrades.
*On one 1263 they used a 767-300 (WB) and all upgrades cleared, I think there were a few empty FC seats. (Per seat map I'm still on a 737.)
seems like some last minute cancels if it was showing j0 a few days out. Currently showing j2 c1 for tomorrow. I've been expediting that about 24 hours out on a number of routes I fly they seem to be clearing the upgrade list down to j1 which is definitely a change from last year when the upgraded wasn't running.
lightbulbs is offline  
Old Sep 21, 2017, 6:43 pm
  #649  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,372
Hey team, I have to change a JFK-LAX RT, and wondering:

1. Is Wednesday night JFK-LAX (the 8PM or 9PM flight) a better upgrade chance than Thursday, at the same times? Are those flights better than earlier flights due to LAX-Asia connections being mostly out of the way, or should I get a later departure (timing doesn't matter for me on this trip).

2. Are the red-eyes back from LAX-JFK on a Wednesday usually bad for upgrades? Are later red-eyes more likely for an upgrade than earlier ones?

I also realize this is a very elite-heavy route...
DMPHL is offline  
Old Sep 21, 2017, 10:18 pm
  #650  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: SFO
Programs: AA EXP, SPG / Marriott GLD, HHonors GLD
Posts: 520
Originally Posted by DMPHL
Hey team, I have to change a JFK-LAX RT, and wondering:

1. Is Wednesday night JFK-LAX (the 8PM or 9PM flight) a better upgrade chance than Thursday, at the same times? Are those flights better than earlier flights due to LAX-Asia connections being mostly out of the way, or should I get a later departure (timing doesn't matter for me on this trip).

2. Are the red-eyes back from LAX-JFK on a Wednesday usually bad for upgrades? Are later red-eyes more likely for an upgrade than earlier ones?

I also realize this is a very elite-heavy route...
Thursday afternoons / evenings I try to avoid like the plague because that's when pretty much every consultant travels. I'd shoot for one of the Wednesday departures. No idea about the timings.

Worst redeyes back east are probably Sunday and Thursday for the same reasons

I checked EF for next week and it looks like 8p and 9p are both at J7. For redeye to east coast next Wed, 9p is J0; 10p is J5; and 1130p is J7 so may be some benefit to picking later. J7 is maximum that EF shows for AA so there may actually be more seats for sale. You're right this is usually a pretty tough upgrade, probably near impossible on a Thurs
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lds89 is offline  
Old Sep 22, 2017, 5:05 am
  #651  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,372
Originally Posted by lds89
Thursday afternoons / evenings I try to avoid like the plague because that's when pretty much every consultant travels. I'd shoot for one of the Wednesday departures. No idea about the timings.

Worst redeyes back east are probably Sunday and Thursday for the same reasons

I checked EF for next week and it looks like 8p and 9p are both at J7. For redeye to east coast next Wed, 9p is J0; 10p is J5; and 1130p is J7 so may be some benefit to picking later. J7 is maximum that EF shows for AA so there may actually be more seats for sale. You're right this is usually a pretty tough upgrade, probably near impossible on a Thurs
Thanks a ton for your insight!
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Old Sep 22, 2017, 6:49 am
  #652  
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 989
Originally Posted by lds89
Thursday afternoons / evenings I try to avoid like the plague because that's when pretty much every consultant travels. I'd shoot for one of the Wednesday departures. No idea about the timings.

Worst redeyes back east are probably Sunday and Thursday for the same reasons

I checked EF for next week and it looks like 8p and 9p are both at J7. For redeye to east coast next Wed, 9p is J0; 10p is J5; and 1130p is J7 so may be some benefit to picking later. J7 is maximum that EF shows for AA so there may actually be more seats for sale. You're right this is usually a pretty tough upgrade, probably near impossible on a Thurs
Can you provide insight on Friday night JFK - LAX upgrade chances with SWU? I can see the 8pm flight has C3, but I am on the 7PM flight and it shows C0. EXP with really low EQD this year and I am travelling with my daughter, what do you think are our upgrade chances?
babypuwet is offline  
Old Sep 22, 2017, 9:18 am
  #653  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,597
Do Platinum Pro members get free upgrades to Premium Economy and have any had success?
bmw303 is offline  
Old Sep 22, 2017, 10:13 am
  #654  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: SNA/LAX, PHL
Programs: AA Gold, AS MVP, WN A-List, Hilton Gold, Hyatt Exp, Hertz PC
Posts: 449
PHL-LAX. Same Friday afternoon flight.

Upgrade list two weeks ago: 20+ long.

Upgrade list today: ~5 people.

Weird.
jacobguo is offline  
Old Sep 22, 2017, 12:03 pm
  #655  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Malibu, CA
Programs: AA CK / Marriott Worthless Ambassador
Posts: 1,158
SWU

Looking at LAX to Tokyo for SWU. Was shocked and found 4 seats with immediate upgrade availability in January. I never see SWU available that far out.

And a $700 fare.

Still SWU waitlisted for October in Lax to LHR.

SWU aren't so fun when it comes down to the gate.
JBauer is offline  
Old Sep 26, 2017, 3:38 pm
  #656  
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New York, NY
Programs: AA EXP & 1MM, SkyTeam Gold, *A Gold, Hilton Gold, Starwood Gold, mother's favorite son
Posts: 333
ORD-LAX 787 odds?

Hi friends, how elite-heavy is ORD-LAX on a Saturday?

I need to fly BOS-LAX this weekend and was gonna route via ORD to pick up the 787 on the ORD-LAX leg. C class was available this morning and I intended to burn a Business Extra upgrade on it.

Now the flight has dropped to C0, but is still J7 & I7. I'm inclined to save my upgrade instrument and hope a 500-mile upgrade clears. I'm a low-on-spend Platinum.

Any experience of what the upgrade list looks like on a Saturday ORD-LAX 788?
Zeffer is offline  
Old Sep 26, 2017, 10:12 pm
  #657  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: DFW
Programs: AAdvantage EXP, HHonors Gold, Marriott Rewards Lifetime Gold Elite
Posts: 14
Smile Transpacific Upgrade Chances for using SWU's for DFW to HKG & NRT to DFW

I am flying AA125 (DFW - HKG) on 17 Mar 2018 and
AA60 (NRT - DFW) on 01 Apr 2018. I am currently PPro and will be EXP in 2 weeks. I would like to use SWU's for my spouse and I both ways. We will both be EXP. We will actually make EXP on the first leg of a trip to LHR next week. I am wondering if it is worth contacting the EXP Desk while in the U.K. to inquire about availability or just wait the 2 weeks and contact them upon my return to the U.S. I do not have EF access, and since I am not EXP yet, I am not certain of the availability.

I would appreciate any response from a fellow EXP member.

Thanks in Advance
gracett1 is offline  
Old Sep 27, 2017, 5:53 am
  #658  
Hyatt Contributor Badge
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: SIN
Posts: 1,098
Originally Posted by gracett1
I am flying AA125 (DFW - HKG) on 17 Mar 2018 and
AA60 (NRT - DFW) on 01 Apr 2018. I am currently PPro and will be EXP in 2 weeks. I would like to use SWU's for my spouse and I both ways. We will both be EXP. We will actually make EXP on the first leg of a trip to LHR next week. I am wondering if it is worth contacting the EXP Desk while in the U.K. to inquire about availability or just wait the 2 weeks and contact them upon my return to the U.S. I do not have EF access, and since I am not EXP yet, I am not certain of the availability.

I would appreciate any response from a fellow EXP member.

Thanks in Advance
You can always sign-up for a 5-day free trial membership on EF, and check availability at no cost to you. I would help you check if I still had an active EF subscription, but unfortunately I don't. Perhaps someone else here with an active EF subscription will help you out.
solewalker is offline  
Old Sep 27, 2017, 7:09 am
  #659  
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: USA & UK -- AA EXP 3.5MM, Hyatt Diamond, SPG Plat, Avis President's Club
Posts: 6,411
Originally Posted by solewalker
Perhaps someone else here with an active EF subscription will help you out.
It would be even better if EF subscribers do NOT supply info to others. EF sells the info as a subscription.

It's the same thing as my buying one Buffet meal in Las Vegas, then sneaking in some friends to help partake.
CloudCoder is offline  
Old Sep 27, 2017, 8:04 am
  #660  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Programs: TK Elite+, DL Plat, Bonvoy Gold, IHG Spire, IC Ambassador, Hilton Gold
Posts: 186
Hi All,
I'm booked on a round-trip JFK-LAX in November. At the time of my reservation a couple months ago, I requested to be put on the mileage upgrade list (I'm platinum). I have 4 500-mile upgrades in my account, however, and it looks like I'm not going to make status for the next year. I'd like to use them before I lose status (and buy a fifth for the 2500 mile flight). If I call and request to use my 500-mile upgrades on one leg of the trip instead of mileage, will I "lose my place in line" and have less chance of actually getting an upgrade?
dtphonehome is offline  


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