Absolutely. I've never had a problem swapping a cert. If PZ is no longer available, it requires an escalation, but they never say no. BTW, I believe this is why UA chose Dec 4. They could have easily chosen Feb 1 and cleanly launched PlusPoints with new Program year, but I think they heard the outcry from MP members around instrument unusability...

You should call 1K line on December 5 to switch out the GPUs (1/21 expiry) with Plus Points with 1/20 expiry. Good luck.

I think they'll be swamped on 05 December. I'd wait at least a couple days.

United replacing GPUs and RPUs with "PlusPoints" starting December 4th 2019
 

Sorry if this has been posted but I haven't seen anything mentioned in the forum so far!

Thanks. There is a significant message that is new to me. Near the end of the video, it says SkipWL will always available. My previous impression from a phone interview with UA was that SkipWL may not be available if discounted business fares are not available. This video seems to say that 30 days in advance you can get any J seats as long as you have high enough balance of +Pts to use.

No, he says "won't always be available" (3:37). Quirky accent, but that's aligned with the preceding messaging ("from time to time", "on select long-haul international routes", "30+ days in advance", etc).

I'm still surprised they're allowing sub-W fares to upgrade with 80 points. On the collusion routes like NRT and FRA, the W fare can be 3x the discount fare. You'll now be able to fly Polaris on SFO-FRA-SFO or SFO-NRT-SFO for $600 instead of $1700. UA taking a big cash hit in these cases with no corresponding reduction of liabilities on the balance sheet (like retiring miles in lieu of cash). Very customer friendly on UA's part...

Assuming the priority stays the same, PP, W+ then regular econ fare stays true, what are the chances that someone so far down gets an upgrade anyway?

In my recent HKG-EWR flight, only 30 polaris seats were occupied out of 60, and that was after 10 upgrades were confirmed. (There were 5 of us in the PP as a whole)

Flights like those could be one of the rare ones where sub-W econ elite may have a chance. If it’d fly half empty anyway, might as well make an elite happy and hope they spend more in the future!

(bolding mine)

Just because they "allow" it, doesn't mean it will often happen; they "allow" CPU eligibility on thousands and thousands of flights nowadays. That doesn't mean your chances are particularly good scoring such an upgrade though.

The recurring theme on this thread, as well as other upgrading threads is that 1K RPUs are near worthless and never clear. As a long time 1K member, and more recently GS, I understand the cynicism. However, I actually think that 1K upgrades on non-CPU eligible domestic routes is getting easier as the massive inventory of GS RPUs is depleted. And these Plus Points domestic upgrade routes will continue to ease as the number of 1K's shrinks next year (higher PQD). Granted, not all 1K's fly transcons or lie-flats to Hawaii, so YMMV.

I would suggest the following (these are suppositions, with no "proof" so no flames please):

The median GS member lost 75% of their awarded 2019 RPUs from the imposition of the cap at the end of 2018 (assumes 250K PQM).

The mean GS member lost even more RPUs (for example, I lost about 32 RPUs from the cap of 4 per member).

Most GS members were easily able to use all of their expiring RPUs every year.

Most GS members were using their RPUs on non-CPU eligible routes, with the majority going to friends and family. I would never use an RPU on a CPU eligible flight for myself, and would use miles for friends (no copay).

Those same friends and family flying transcons are not getting sponsored with GS miles & money, generally. They are now sitting in coach. (And I can give you 32 examples this year!)

I suspect the number of true GS members (not companions) is much larger than this board believes. As an example, if UA/UX has about 4900 flights per day, and the average number of true GS is one/flight, one can come up with some big numbers of GS members depending on your assumption of the number of RTs a member makes per year. I come up with 50-100K GS members.

Anecdotally, since I fly transcons every week, I am seeing much shorter gate upgrade lists (excluding nonrevs). I suspect SFO/EWR is still tough for 1ks, but I see a lot of upgrades SFO/BOS and LAX/EWR.

Agree/disagree?

There's another similar analysis earlier on the thread. I disagree. I suspect most people will simply find other ways to get into J, such as upgrading with (increasingly worthless) MileagePlus miles, even if you're not personally doing that.

There are plenty of GS who aren't able to use their instruments, either. They sell a lot of F seats on non-CPU eligible domestic routes.

Your estimate of the number of GSes is almost certainly way too high, also. 25K, maybe. 100K, no way. (The number of 1Ks is estimated to be about 100K).

I agree the substantial reduction in GS RPUs may make it marginally easier to upgrade premium t-cons, but the biggest current impediment to upgrades on those routes (particularly SFO-EWR) is demand for paid J.
It feels like there are 100k 1K at SFO alone ;)

Number of GS
 

Bolding mine. I have a number of GS friends who are heavy road warriors, as well as less frequent flyers via corporate contracts. The heavy road warrior GS obviously match normal FT profile, who suffer huge loss this year of RPU sponsorship for their friends and family.

There are certainly many more times of less-frequent flying GS, via corporate contract match status. These GS didn’t lose huge RPU numbers because they don’t generate the average 250k BIS miles of heavy road warrior GS type.

Agree SFO-EWR is still extremely hard to clear with RPU this year after limiting 4 RPU per GS. I did clear LAX-EWR and LAX-BOS relatively earlier than last year (e.g. before T-48).

I think this was one of the drivers behind the cap. UA can see who uses RPUs. My guess is 75% of RPUs were going to infrequent flyers with zero status and kids on traveling club sports teams, while the broader elite base was howling over upgrade availability. UA saw this and smartly ended it. The first 20 seconds of the PlusPoints video kind of alludes to this.