This is only true if you could actually use the RPUs. It doesn't matter how many RPUs were in circulation if they couldn't be used -- or if they were only useful on flights where a CPU would clear anyway.

This has never proven to be a factor before. Indeed, UA seems to be quite good at enticing additional spending from passengers.

I disagreed with this conclusion before, and I disagree with it still.

You're ignoring the plat RPUs... and, again, the number in circulation are irrelevant.

Not sure how that's good, and I have no idea why you would assume that upgrade inventory in 2020 will be similar to inventory in 2019. I suspect it will continue to decline, because UA will continue to improve its ability to sell the seats.

PlusPoints changes a few things:
While your numbers are likely off, this, at least, is true.

They were already in the international upgrade arena. They just had to use Miles + Copay. Just like every other customer could. And still can. For any PZ inventory -- the very same inventory that 1Ks can clear GPUs into at booking.

The number of Platinum customers is likely on par with the number of 1Ks, or slightly fewer.

No, breakage will not go to zero. There are still plenty of members who don't even know what GPUs are, despite being flush with them. And, so far, United has not indicated any inclination to allow people to use 300 points to upgrade SFO-LAX. The Skip the Waitlist functionality is expected to be limited in scope and on long-haul international routes only.

PlusPoints will have negligible effect on the total number of upgrades doled out, which are solely limited by the number of seats UA isn't able to sell. Some people will likely be able to upgrade more frequently; others will see no change at all. It's not likely to hurt anybody's chances.

There is no way that UA is culling 10% from the 1K ranks, even if I agreed with these numbers. And there are likely 3K GSes in California alone.

I don't think this will have any impact on upgrade clearance rates. Failed upgrade attempts are not caused by competition with other upgrade attempts; they are by and large caused by competition with paid fares and cash buyups.

The economy, and by extension how it impacts United's choice of frame assignment and scheduling, plus fares and inventory, will have far more effect on upgrade rates in 2020 than the PlusPoints change. (Also, I think the reduction of RPUs and the ability to use a GPU as 2x RPU roughly cancel each other out.)

I’ve been on flights (rare) with 15 other GS
theres way more then 3k GS floating around especially with MM companion benefits

While Plats like myself CAN do miles + $ upgrades, having 2 RPU now be able to be used as 1 GPU (no cash) is definitely the way I would roll mine.

The copays are like $450-$600 on most fares.

Of course now I am trying harder for 1K. I would have qualified if $12,000 PQD was still around.

Isnt skip the waitlists the same as confirm at booking? Fancy name aside

Sure, and many people will likely follow that lead. The point is just that this isn't some new ability: every UA passenger can use miles + copay if they so desire.

True, but in order for a Plat to use +Ps to upgrade on a long-haul flight, they're going to need to buy up to W. In some markets, that's not a big deal: in others, you may be paying a hefty premium just for the ability to waitlist your points. And, if they don't clear, the miles + copay is refundable, but the difference between, say, G and W is not.

No. Confirmation at booking remains available for flights that have PZ space. StW will, for some unknown number of points, allow confirmation on some flights that do not have PZ space, provided that it is at least 30 days prior to departure. (They haven't announced what inventory will be needed for StW -- guesses include ZN and PN).

MM GS companions don't count as they don't get any certs or PlusPoints. If it's much more than 3K it wouldn't be consistent with the top 1% aura of the program. How many do you think there are?

1% of what. It is speculated there are nearly a million premiers alone. UA (premerger) said there were over 500K 15 years ago.
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unit...tes-there.html

hi,

2 questions(which I cant find the answer to ,apologies if already answered)

1.
if only dom portion not internation leg of a trip clears for upgrade i understand you will get charged the 20pts for the dom upgrade leg.
however,can you cancel the upgrade request if it becomes clear you will not get the international upgrade?

2.
for ana,lh i understand you can do upgrade do biz as before-however has the fare class restriction been lifted/changed as withunited biz upgrade flights?

thanks

I must have missed that memo. AFAIK, they've always gotten GPU in the past.

I tried to extrapolate from the data above. The major adjustment I made was significantly downsizing the GS population as GS spend requirements have materially increased since 2005, while ticket prices haven't changed that much -- so a much smaller % of 2.2% in 2005 will qualify today.

Regardless of whether you think it's 3K or 9K GS members, it doesn't matter much for this exercise. In a 'capped RPU' world, the percentage of RPUs (or PlusPoints) held by the GS community is mice nuts. It's dwarfed by the 1K and Platinum population.

Historically, the GS population was polluting the well with an absurd number of RPUs. When they capped the RPUs, I thought it was because GS members were giving them all away to their kids' soccer teams -- annoying the broader elite population. I now realize the cap was in anticipation of launching PlusPoints! UA has materially increased the value of the PP currency by significantly reducing the currency in circulation. Well done by UA -- Central Bank like execution.

Probably not - not easily at any rate.

No, no change to fare class requirements.

1K companions get no instruments (or PlusPoints) unless they achieve 100K PQM. I believe GS is the same way, but someone with LT GS please chime in here...

That's not how this works. According to United's 2006 10-K -- for some reason, the 2005 10-K is missing from the website -- they earned $15.3 billion in passenger revenue in 2005. In 2018, they've reported $37.7 billion in passenger revenue. Sure, GS qualification levels might be up, but that doesn't mean that the percentage of passengers who are GS has fallen. Airline consolidation has more than made up the difference.


You're still low. I'd say there are a minimum of 15K, and 25K wouldn't be surprising.

Furthermore, the average number of GPUs / +Ps per GS is higher than the the number per 1K passenger, because they tend to earn more PQMs -- that's how they end up as a GS in the first place.

Of course, that's somewhat balanced by the fact that GS passengers aren't limited to PZ inventory.

OK, so on the one hand, there aren't very many GS members, but on the other hand, they were "polluting the well?" Your argument collapses upon itself.

1K upgrade rates, en masse, have never been materially affected by GS upgrades. Sure, there may be the occasional trip where somebody happened to sponsor a big group with GS instruments, but mostly, 1K upgrade rates are affected primarily by how many seats United can sell. They're not in the business of giving things away.

And... the other thing that GS members have lots of is MileagePlus miles. They can switch to miles + copay -- and the copay is waived for Premier members on CPU-able routes. Oh, and GS CPUs have priority over non-GS instruments anyway, at least at the gate.

UA may have materially increased the value of the +P system compared to the old one, if only because it offers more choices for passengers. All the RPUs in the world weren't valuable to someone who only traveled internationally, for example. However, it's not going to make much difference, because UA will continue to sell those seats, meaning that we're going to see people complain about how +Ps are worthless just like people complain about how GPUs/RPUs are worthless.

Great. Let's call it 15K GS. They're still dwarfed by the 1K+Plat population.

This may be a simpler way to explain it with two irrefutable facts:

1. There is less upgrade currency (PP) in the system in 2020 (due to RPU cap, 1K culling, etc.). All else equal, when there's less currency in float, the value of the currency goes up.
2. The % of upgrade currency (PP) held by GS in 2020 will be the lowest in recent history

Now if your argument continues to be, "UA will find a way to screw us all so we realize no incremental benefit..." then I don't know how to answer that.

I feel this change will materially benefit the broader elite population. Additionally, the skip-wl feature will eliminate the forced-loss of unused currency at year-end.

UA has very skillfully redistributed the upgrade-wealth across the elite base. Good execution on their part!

Except that:

the 15k GS are much more likely to be on any given flight than the __k 1K / __k Platinum members;
the 'culling' never is perceptible; and
no one here now knows how skip-waitlist will be implemented in actuality.

I feel your analysis is premature.

edit: also, quibbling — it's confusing if you refer to PointsPlus as PP since PremiumPlus also could be PP (I suggest +. and P+ ? respectively :p), and the K in 15K is weirdly suggestive of a flyer who hits 1K qualifications 15 times (I suggest SI 'kilo' abbreviation 'k').