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Originally Posted by BF263533
(Post 30968653)
And, the 737-MAX and 777-X (Big MAX) appear to reflect more than "tweaking" or "modifying." With the 737 MAX they are placing much larger engines higher and more forward of the modified wing, on a plane designed for much smaller engines, generating a lot of aerodynamic issues being addressed with software. What was needed was a much higher landing gear. The United 737-200 is one of the first planes that I flew almost 50 years ago with much smaller engines balanced under the wings. Google a picture of the 737-200 and compare it to the 737 MAX. I saw a post or article stating it is like Ford putting putting a much larger engine in & stretching the Model T. To think that the 737 is one of the first airplanes that I flew on almost 50 years ago, and that it may be one of the last airplanes that I fly on before I move on to final rest in the Great Sky, makes me wonder, could Boeing have done better & its customer airlines insisted on better?
There was radical change a long time ago as well. Take a look at a 737-300 vs a -200. Radical stretch / change from the cigar engines to the then larger forward weighted ones used until the Max. And the 737-200 had its own flaws. Very prone to pitch up - was a factor in the stall that led to the Air Florida crash in DC (and also one as recently as 2012 in Pakistan). Pilots ultimately responsible, and a sensor was also involved, but the design of the aircraft and its unique handling characteristics played a memorable role. Lots that can be done better - but are we certain a clean sheet airframe would be free of its own boundary pushing and flaws. Remember the induction of the Airbus A320 and its fly by wire. I'll bet most of us though would have rather seen the 757 be updated. |
Originally Posted by jmastron
(Post 30968946)
Does the simulator accurately replicate the force required to turn the manual trim wheels at the speeds involved in these incidents? And do at least some of the runaway trim scenarios involve full downward deflection before the pilots are allowed to start recovering (including feeling how much effort required to both turn the trim wheels and to hold the stick/yoke back), and do they include "surprise" runaway when the pilot doesn't expect it (as opposed to failing to stop when the pilot releases the electric trim switch so they realize more quickly )?
I don't mean those at all to sound like loaded questions; I'm genuinely curious and appreciate all of the real pilots who are adding their insight in this thread. I have to be honest, just don't remember the exact pitch/power scenarios we used for the runaway trim training, it's been a long time since I was in that aircraft. However I do recall the training exercise was more than just hitting the cutoff switches after turning the automation off. You had the re-trim the aircraft, add or reduce power to get the plane stable for the procedure to be complete. There were full trim deflections both up and down that were demonstrated and recovery had to be made from both. In regards to your question about surprise runaway trim. The B737 is very easy to diagnose. For argument's sake, lets just assume a pilot would not recognize the situation by the excessive force on the yoke required to climb, descend, or maintain level flight; probably clue #1 . An obvious secondary sign would be the trim wheel going nuts, spinning uncontrollably inches from your left or right knee. The trim wheel moves as electric trim on the yoke is applied, rarely does it move more than 3 or 4 seconds at a time. Anything more would get my attention. Hope this helps. |
Originally Posted by fly18725
(Post 30969203)
Non sequitur. You can rigorously design and test and airplane only to discover flaws after it enters operation. It is not possible to be 100% safe. You learn from the problems, make changes so they don’t happen again, and move on. This doesn’t excuse the crashes or diminish the lives lost but it’s an extreme position where everything has to be safe or must not exist. Boeing made the conscious decision that they could get by, and make MORE MONEY, by cheating the design of the old 737. That's not as safety conscious as they could be or should be. Full stop. |
Originally Posted by DenverBrian
(Post 30969306)
It's 2019, not 1959. We have computer simulations unthinkable even 20 years ago. Wireframe construction unthinkable 50 years ago. I absolutely demand a much higher level of safety today than a decade ago or a half century ago.
Boeing made the conscious decision that they could get by, and make MORE MONEY, by cheating the design of the old 737. That's not as safety conscious as they could be or should be. Full stop. Computer simulations are only as good as the imagination AND coding capability of the simulator -- and are often quite worse. I'll bet Tesla never bothered to simulate a driver watching a movie on his phone while letting the automobile self-navigate. You can do a wonderful photorealistic simulation if you want to shoot a movie. That is NOT the same as simulating performance with 5000 different variables at play. It's one thing to say say Boeing missed something in their design. It's a whole other thing to charge they beta-test the product with passengers. |
Originally Posted by DenverBrian
(Post 30969306)
I absolutely demand a much higher level of safety today than a decade ago or a half century ago.
Look up some statistics on things that are likely to kill you. Even including the MAX crashes, many things you do in your daily life are far, far more likely to kill you, unless you actually live aboard a 737 max and never leave it. Even then, you'll probably go from heart disease first because you probably wouldn't get much exercise living aboard a plane. |
Originally Posted by LIH
(Post 30967673)
I have an uncle who is the CEO of a parts manufacturer that is in the supply chain for the GE engines on the MAX and they've been told that there are zero plans to alter production for the foreseeable future.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/05/busin...cut/index.html Boeing is cutting its 737 Max production rate as the company works to return the plane to flight. "We have decided to temporarily move from a production rate of 52 airplanes per month to 42 airplanes per month starting in mid-April," CEO Dennis Muilenburg said in a statement Friday. Muilenburg was talking about the company's entire 737 production system, which includes more than just the Max line of jets. But most are Max planes. |
Originally Posted by chrisl137
(Post 30969486)
And you're getting it.
Look up some statistics on things that are likely to kill you. Even including the MAX crashes, many things you do in your daily life are far, far more likely to kill you, unless you actually live aboard a 737 max and never leave it. Even then, you'll probably go from heart disease first because you probably wouldn't get much exercise living aboard a plane. I've OFTEN quoted the safety record of air travel to nervous friends. My focus here is quite specifically on the 737MAX. All the info I'm reading so far leads me to the conclusion that Boeing dropped the ball on this particular model. It should have been a completely new type certification. Simulator training should have been provided. MCAS should have been more clearly explained. And yes, because 350 humans died after first being subjected to minutes of sheer terror, the EFFECT is that Boeing beta tested on passengers. (Of course no one sat in a room and said, "let's get this rushed out, if it crashes, we'll learn then.") |
Ya, believe AS has some unfilled 737-900 ordets and there are probably others.
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Originally Posted by ExplorerWannabe
(Post 30969425)
I'll bet Tesla never bothered to simulate a driver watching a movie on his phone while letting the automobile self-navigate.
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Originally Posted by cerealmarketer
(Post 30969236)
There was radical change a long time ago as well. Take a look at a 737-300 vs a -200. Radical stretch / change from the cigar engines to the then larger forward weighted ones used until the Max.
And the 737-200 had its own flaws. Very prone to pitch up - was a factor in the stall that led to the Air Florida crash in DC (and also one as recently as 2012 in Pakistan). Pilots ultimately responsible, and a sensor was also involved, but the design of the aircraft and its unique handling characteristics played a memorable role. Lots that can be done better - but are we certain a clean sheet airframe would be free of its own boundary pushing and flaws. Remember the induction of the Airbus A320 and its fly by wire. I'll bet most of us though would have rather seen the 757 be updated. Allegedly Boeing did not get any orders for the 160 seat 757-100 and went for the 757-200. The 757 MAX with the 160 seat version, and updated 200 and 300 series would have been a far more aerodynamically stable and flexible option than the 737 MAX. |
Originally Posted by DenverBrian
(Post 30969586)
If a Tesla makes an error, it results in the death of 1 or 3 or 5 people.
But the number of people who die due to our extremely lax attitudes toward wheeled motor vehicle operation is enormous. Approximately 3000 people *every month* die in motor vehicle related incidents in the US, most of which could probably be prevented if we improved the rigor of our operator training and testing. And while you may feel like you're in control of your own vehicle, someone else who isn't in control of theirs could easily kill you. In New York City alone, hundreds of people are struck by cars every year *while standing on the sidewalk*. If a passenger jet makes an error, 150 or 300 or 500 people die. That definitely calculates into any risk assessment and MUST increase the focus on safety first. |
I am more concerned about food recalls due to Salmonella and Listeria. But to each their own.
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Originally Posted by EmailKid
(Post 30969585)
Ya, believe AS has some unfilled 737-900 ordets and there are probably others.
There are maybe about two dozen airline 737NGs (plus a handful more military variants on a separate production line) left to be delivered (I can't find the exact up-to-date total, but it's probably around that number). That's half a month of production, tops.
Originally Posted by DenverBrian
(Post 30969586)
If a Tesla makes an error, it results in the death of 1 or 3 or 5 people. If a passenger jet makes an error, 150 or 300 or 500 people die. That definitely calculates into any risk assessment and MUST increase the focus on safety first.
Originally Posted by BF263533
(Post 30969676)
Allegedly Boeing did not get any orders for the 160 seat 757-100 and went for the 757-200. The 757 MAX with the 160 seat version, and updated 200 and 300 series would have been a far more aerodynamic and flexible option than the 737 MAX.
Boeing's launch of the 737 MAX 10 with United actually eats up a lot of the remaining 757 replacement market. Sure, we could all argue that a hypothetical 757 MAX would perform "better" than the 737 MAX, but if that better performance costs a few million dollars extra per plane to buy and to fly, for a bunch of missions that are mostly within the capability of the 737, what actual incentive do airlines have to buy it? |
Originally Posted by rmadisonwi
(Post 30969740)
Per a thread tracking this on airliners.net, the last AS 737-900ER was delivered yesterday.
There are maybe about two dozen airline 737NGs (plus a handful more military variants on a separate production line) left to be delivered (I can't find the exact up-to-date total, but it's probably around that number). That's half a month of production, tops. The irony here being that caring less about the 1 or 3 or 5 allows those 1s and 3s and 5s to add up to way more than the couple hundred that might die in one go in a plane crash. Problem with the 757 was that it was too heavy and expensive a platform to start from. It was designed around performance that wasn't really possible with the 737 engines from the early 1980s. Once the 737 became capable enough to fill most of those 757-specific missions (as well as the A320/321 coming around), there wasn't much of a reason for airlines to buy the 757. Yes, it could fly a few more people a few more miles, but the extra capacity and range came at a significant cost compared to flying a 737. When doing a cost/benefit analysis, the essentially unanimous decision by airlines was that the 757 wasn't worth it. Hence, orders completely dried up, and Boeing had to end production. Even now, with significant improvements in engine efficiency and airplane weight with composites, Boeing is struggling to find a business case for a new "middle-of-market" plane which is why its launch has been delayed until at least 2020. Boeing's launch of the 737 MAX 10 with United actually eats up a lot of the remaining 757 replacement market. Sure, we could all argue that a hypothetical 757 MAX would perform "better" than the 737 MAX, but if that better performance costs a few million dollars extra per plane to buy and to fly, for a bunch of missions that are mostly within the capability of the 737, what actual incentive do airlines have to buy it? |
Originally Posted by chrisl137
(Post 30969691)
Commercial passenger aviation, including Boeing, focuses way more on safety than you clearly seem to realize.
That we can count the number of annual casualties *worldwide* in the hundreds (and in the US on one hand) is a testament to that. I suspect that everybody at Boeing understands perfectly well that any sort of safety failure on their part is likely to be far more damaging economically than almost any savings they might make on the unit cost of a part or aircraft. |
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