It's the only logical way based on sound economic reasoning.

Unless United mgmt is a lot stupider than I imagine, they price that empty seat to account for the probability of a high-paying customer buying it at the last minute. Maybe filling the seat 5 times with a discount flyer is worth forgoing the possibility of someone paying full price for it -- or maybe it's 8 times. The point is there is some ratio, which United undoubtedly knows, and prices for. As long as MR is higher than MC, the guy who fills that seat has some value to United, no matter what the price is. This is econ 101.

This FT member has an average revenue to UA of ~$70/segment. My guess is the VC for this passenger is not a whole lot lower so their earnings from him are minuscule. They aren't gaining much by having him fill the seat so why be so generous in MP status when all you do is, in a small way, devalue the program to those who are actually making some money for UA?

I am staying, this is mostly a win for me. I travel domestically 2-4 times a month and typically have 100ish segments but have to take a few personal long hauls to get the PQM. It seems I am the customer that United wants to reward. The spend is a little bit close but I get it, what with them being a for profit company the revenue is indeed a priority.

Where (or if) to show loyalty to any particular airline is a decision that is going to differ depending on each person’s situation. In my case, several changes are coming together at United that will probably drive me to switch to the “Free Agent” loyalty program.

Since UA and CO merged programs I have been GS or 1K and, before the merger, I had been at the highest levels of the CO program for probably 15+ years. I attained that status by flying anywhere from 4-10+ international trips (mostly TPAC) in business a year along with 6 or so domestic round trips a year. The amount of travel has been slowly trending down over the past few years. I’m sitting at about 2.55 million miles with United and so have Platinum status through the MM program.

I’ve not had a problem meeting the spending requirements and probably would meet the $18K requirement ----- but there is no way to 54 segments without doing crazy routings that aren’t worth the effort and I don’t think that I would get to $24K on a consistent basis.

I suspect the move to dynamic pricing is going to make “free” award trips a lot more expensive.

The move to requiring you to be flying on UA to use the clubs domestically is reducing the value of that annual expense.

Taking all this into account, I think my best move may be to drop out of chasing status and just use whatever airline makes the most sense to me for any particular trip. I will probably not renew the UA club next year. When I travel internationally, I will look at other airlines (especially the Asian competitors). Won’t need a club membership, because since I am lucky enough to travel in business class, I’ll have access provided on those flights. Result is likely to be less time on UA metal.
When I travel domestically, I’ll be looking at UA, Southwest, and Delta because of where I tend to go. No driving force to use UA since I can always “buy” any status I may need on other airlines (bags, seat assignment, early boarding, etc.) at way less than trying to inflate UA spend to $24K a year. Still have Amex platinum, so that gives me Priority Pass and access to some lounges. Just sit in a nice place and have a good glass of wine in other cases.

Miles for awards? Will start buying most trips and then using the points on the credit card to “pay” for my “award” trips. Will still accumulate miles in programs and will see if there are any reasonable ways to use them.

Last nagging issue is whether to still focus on UA metal to try to get to 3 million miles and get 1K status through MM program. As work career is winding down, I think that could be quite a few years for me to get there and who knows how many devaluations and changes are going to occur over the next few years???

So, it’s the “Free Agent” loyalty program for me!

I am moving from UA to Alaska next year, I think their miles are more valuable and I don't mind the connections in SEA

The honest truth is that I will not make any status, and certainly not Premier Gold, on United Airlines without the credit card waiver. I will finish this year with somewhere between 2400 and 2750 PQD and just over 52,000 PQM, so I'll have United "Gold" status through January 2021.

My plan going forward:
Today I applied and was approved for the Delta Reserve AmEx card. The introductory offer is 75,000 redeemable SkyPesos plus 10,000 MQM with $5,000 spend in the first three months. I should have no problem with the spend; I just need to make sure I don't surpass $5,000 until January 1 so the bonus MQM will count for 2020.

On or around December 10 I intend to apply for a Delta status match challenge to Gold. I'm planning three flights in January and February - two booked in First - to fulfill the match.

I'm getting the card for the MQM earnings and the MQD waiver, but it comes with SkyClub access and, starting in February, access to Centurion Lounges.

$450 - AmEx annual fee (10,000 MQM with $3K spend in first 3 months; add'l 15,000 MQM @ $30K spend in 2020 - total 25,000 MQM)
$1776 - tickets in January and February for status match (19,000 MQM)
$750 - additional Delta ticket purchases in March-May (~6,600+ MQM)

$2976 for Delta Gold status thru January 2022.

I'll spend the rest of 2020 burning United miles while I still have *Gold status and flying Delta for additional MQM to "rollover" into 2021.

The card fee will go up $100 for the following year but if the MQD waiver and bonus MQMs for spend are retained, it's worth it to me.

Sorry to see you go…

The last two years I spent flying from ORD-PEK to get my status. The good news is that I will not be going to China very often, but trying to get status n that flight will be difficult since the tickets are sub $800 lately. Next year I might need to go to India a lot. Anyone ever try Air India for status or am I nuts?

In September, prior to the announcement from UA, I received an unsolicited Elite Fast Track offer from AA which would front me with Platinum status, 20 500-mile upgrades, and I could retain the status if I flew 12,500 EQMs within a 90 day period. Figured out travel and balanced remaining 2019 trips between UA (to maintain Platinum and bump up MileagePlus balance) and AA. Post UA-announcement, decided to do the minimum to maintain Platinum on UA (a combo of burning Flex PQMs that will be worthless and only 1.5 trips on UA) and changing other trips to AA to go for Platinum Pro by flying 20,000 EQMs.

Is the grass greener on AA? No, and I can only imagine the train-wreck I am going to get into. I figured maybe a year to let the smoke clear, take advantage of holding dual Elite status and just having more options to either find lower flights or find lower tiered mileage awards (since AA doesn't appear to be going the dynamic route as of yet) but I can't see the value of spending more money to retain status on UA since with the new requirements at best I will hit Silver, might be able to squeeze it out to Gold. If UA had a product that was superior, then sure they can have my money. If they instead try and thin the Elite ranks (which isn't a bad thing to some extent IMHO) and raise the Elite requirements to be mostly $$$ based, they are more or less making it so it is more of a privilege than a right to fly UA and that people should "pay up." Except here is the biggest thing that UA is forgetting:
THEY DON'T HAVE THE ONBOARD PRODUCT OR SERVICE THAT WARRANTS A PREMIUM

If Polaris wasn't Big Front-Flat Bed with Domestic F catering.....but UA is going to charge more $$$ for, if the F experience wasn't Big-Front Seat with Free BoB....but UA is going to charge more $$$ , and if Y wasn't UA doing the bare minimum compared to what DL is offering.....but still trying to charge more $$$......then maybe I would be more inclined to stay. But what has UA done in the past 2 years to improve? Added some pretzels/stroopwafels but made drastic cuts in the premium cabin with no future improvements. Okay we have Polaris lounges and the UA Clubs are marginally better....okay they added a few more tools. But its not enough that warrants the premium they are really seeking.

Unless you're coming off an SFO-EWR redeye, and need a shower because you're headed into the city for a 9AM meeting.

YMMV, but Air India did not post my miles twice. They are a pain to deal with. Make promises on the phone but nothing changes. I avoid them now. They were Z fares, so I lost out.

So I'm probably one of the more rare people here who now holds relatively high earned status on two carriers. Some hold multiple high status levels thru corp contracts, etc, I recognize that. That said I'm a long time 1k and for the last several years a Platinum on AA thru mostly OW partner flights- CX, QF, BA. This year, not only have I already requalified for 1k for 2020, but I've made AA Plat Pro and I'm approx ~12000 EQM and $2k EQD from earning EXP for 2020. So, I have to decide if I want to press for EXP with an eventual pivot to AA next year or just carry on with UA and let the AA/OW earnings end up wherever they fall. Looking ahead to 2020 I don't think I will have the travel to sustain both 1K and EXP, but I could shift most all my travel to UA and easily make 1k with the new requirements, or let my UA status drop down to probably gold (or possibly platinum) and target some of my travel toward mid-level AA/OW status again. I do deliberately plan some of my travel on AA/OW now just for sapphire. I find value in holding sapphire- namely the lounge access when I fly Y on OW carriers, MCE on AA...the same ways I find value in *G and holding at least UA gold.. My travel is a mix of Y and J both domestic an overseas, and *A and OW carriers both suit my needs. I'm only approx 50% of the way to MM on both UA and AA so that's still a big hill to climb in both programs.

All that aside I'm not sure if switching to AA will be any better because AA will no doubt be taking an axe to their program in the near future as well. I'm not sure that going completely free-agent is the answer because I do fly enough that I might as well obtain some sort of status out of all that time in the air.

I guess I will wait and see what AA does in the next few months before I go all in on a program pivot.

You should definitely use one of the ME3 airlines for your India travel. FAR superior than Air India and Qatar is most of the time the cheapest too. Air India is just generally a terrible airline.

FWIW, I have Indian friends who refuse to fly Air India.

My typical paid travel on UA is mostly from ORD, 10-12 TPAC and 2-3 TATL coach trips annually, with a few domestic ones sprinkled in. For last 17 years I had at least a 1K status, with GS most years, and at least 150k annual miles, more than half of the years over 200k. 2MM for near 3 years.
Clearly UA wants to get rid of the FT like me.
Even V/H TPAC flights have base fares that are under $1000/flight as a rule. TATL could be higher, but rarely over $1200. I can see myself getting to 18k PQP, but not a chance for 24k. Unless I get to crazy routing I will not make it above 40-45 PQFs. Switching to partners will not get me too far, since 7k miles RT TPAC in AC or AN will translate to the same 1200 PQP.
I would need another 6-7 years of flying like currently to make it to 3MM. Without 1K and global upgrades that come with it there is no chance for me sustaining it.
I will probably go free agent once I exhaust my upgrades...
OM