I think it all depends on the refugee - AS is really struggling at SFO (in my opinion) and I'm sure they'd love to high dollar customers if they can get them - do they want customers that flies long distances on very cheap tickets (they kind UA is lowering benefits for), I'm not so sure.....

This is total myth. I'm sure AS will be delighted to pick up pax who spend $18k per year flying 75,000 miles BIS on less than 54 segments.

When PQD were introduced, we talked about "low spend" flyers being those below 8 cents per mile or so, and an18 cpm BIS flyer was "an HVF" who would clear the original $10k PQD threshold with ease.

Now those who seek to justify UA's new rules are calling 25 cpm (BIS) tickets "very cheap."

AS doesn't have long-distance cheap-ticket routes.

It's already come up in the AS forum that meeting the status match requirements will be tricky for a lot of people who get their status on UA with TPACs. They'll have to fly a few domestic transcons that they might not otherwise in order to meet the AS metal requirement for the challenge miles.

Or AS could pick up some underused 777s from UA with since everybody is bailing on them and start flying some TPACs.

I've benefited from UA matching AS SFO-MCO sub $200 airfares this year - I don't know what you consider a long distance cheap ticket, but 2,500 miles on under $200, seemed cheap to me

Stay with UA, because under the new scheme, I will be able to earn P+ easier than the current scheme. I do about 150K BIS on *A and 250K on United each year. Those *A flights will now let me earn PQP, and I am no longer need to tie myself to flying United since I already have lifetime GS.

My needs are RDMs and P+ for family awards travel, and I can max both under the new scheme.

Wow! Are you comfortable with these assumptions and prediction?

As a UA MM and unable to earn beyond Gold, I will focus on keeping BA Silver and see whether BA Gold works also. As US is such a bad airline I see no reason to fly it again after using up next year's GPUs.

I tend to find myself in a situation at least a couple of times a year where UA is the only realistic option for my itinerary. The Explorer card benefits are nice and the LAX lounge is really nice in terms of food...but it's definitely at best a break-even situation.

It's not the end of the world...heck, even under the new program, I would probably get 1K. But I won't because I don't want to lug a <1 year old everywhere around the world I want to go.

Before last weekend's mileage run, I was sitting at 6.9 cpm on the year. None of this total up until that point was mileage running, it was all completely legit travel: trips to China and Hawaii on UA metal, and a trip to Chile on CM metal to watch the total eclipse (I would have paid about a 25-30% premium for UA metal to SCL, but the actual premium UA was charging over CM was something like 75%, so as a result, I didn't fly UA metal on that trip). This is just based on what tickets happened to be available when I wanted to book, tracking prices via Google Flights for a while, and making purchases about 21-100 days before departure.

Mapping the old system for Premier Gold (50000 PQM) onto the new system (10000 PQP), we can calculate that UA wants at least 20 cpm if you are going to fly 50k miles. That's absolutely insane. You're talking about $2k R/T tickets from the US West Coast to Asia at that point. Alternately, you're talking about flying 83333 miles instead of 50000 at the old requirement of 12 cpm (50000 PQM + 6000 PQD). I mean, I like traveling, but I'm not going to just literally throw money away like that. A few years ago, I purchased a personal ticket to go to Asia about 3-7 days prior to departure, and even that fairly last minute ticket was only around 13-15 cpm. You literally have to TRY to throw away money to hit a 20 cpm target if you're flying Y; if you always fly J or F, you'll hit that target easily, but you don't care about status if you do that.

United just validated my decision to drop the MileagePlus Explorer card with its concentration on travel on United. I can use cash back better than reward miles anyway and pick whichever airline best meets my flight needs for a given itinerary.

I have a theory that Kirby is trying to kill the UA Card portfolio as much as he can as a negotiating tacit with Chase. I heard their agreement still have several years left. Maybe Kirby is trying to get a early renewal.

That would be stupid, IMO - all the press I have read says that Chase is eating UA’s lunch on credit cards. Unless UA has a new co-branded offering showing up, that will continue to be the case.

While I agree that it's going to be extremely hard to earn status on just pure spend, I think the new Gold will end up benefitting most of the short/medium-haul travelers on OPM. A very large chunk of corporate travelers make up the type of travel of 24 PQF and 8000 PQP, it's really just 12 round-trips a year, or once a month and $667 a ticket.

Those that were previously doing something like EWR-DFW/IAH once a month would have only gotten 33,600 PQM and were stuck at Silver will now be Gold. Assuming they're spending over $667 per ticket which is not unreasonable if booked a week ahead. I'm not sure that this is the right approach or not, but that group of travelers should be happy. And may end up filling up the E+ cabin and make 1K/GS who buy last min to sit in the back (which I've seen happen many times).

As for status, I fly J and F long-haul and I still care about it and there are still benefits to me for the time being. Whether or not it's worth 24,000 PQP is debatable.