warrenw

You can get flights though that include the NRT-ICN leg on OZ though.

I don't think it's too much lift, it *seems* like it's always full. Of course United has the final numbers, but I've flown the route many times and it seems it's always, always full.

DA201

UA adding OZ to their Asia/Pacific JV or adding an EWR/ORD-ICN nonstop would be nice. I encourage everyone here who lives in CHI or NYC to try OZ for the nonstop. They really have a great product in both the front and back of the plane.

Honestly, I really like connecting through SFO. The only part that is annoying is the time lost (coming from the east coast). If I am traveling for leisure and not in a rush, I will most likely connect through SFO and be okay... only if all the NYC-ICN nonstops are way overpriced.

EWR764

The relatively long lead time on this cancellation (6+ months) is theoretically enough time to implement a codeshare on a single route with existing partners. If NRT-ICN service is actually strategic for United, I imagine the preference would be to replace the UA service with NH.

No doubt ICN has significant volume, but United's high capacity in the market might have the effect of depressing yields. Multiple daily KE/OZ A380s/777s/747s nonstop to the USA is a great deal of capacity to the key business markets, and UA doesn't have the benefit of revenue-shared/JV feed delivering premium traffic to its flights on that end. BKK was always full too, but we don't have much insight on fares paid.

Of course, if SFO-ICN eventually goes 77W, then all that is moot.

PsiFighter37

They are putting a 789 on it (per earlier posts), which is either indicative that there isn't demand on it, or that they won't have enough 77Ws in-house yet (thanks, Zodiac!).

bob_the_d

the airport itself i don't mind. it's that it requires taking a p.s. flight between 5:30AM - 6:30AM which then leads to a 60-120 minute connection. if the weather acts up, it's really not a comforting connection window, given the two airports' track records. i liked connecting through NRT because then you only have to deal with one long haul, instead of two (i would consider a 6AM tcon long haul-ish). and the connection window at NRT was long enough to compensate with most delays, and if you miss it there's enough NRT-ICN flights to transfer onto.

oh, NRT-ICN, i shall miss you.

1kBill

Don't forget that there is also a lot of military traffic.

warrenw

Makes sense. Also remember that UA holds the defense contract for their SFO-ICN route. As such, I'd say 25-30% of all the flights I take between SFO and ICN (~7/year) are military personnel.

EWR764

Right... I know a 789 is in the schedule but given the Zodiac issues UA is understandably circumspect in rolling out a complete schedule for all 14 ships. If I had to guess, I'd wager ICN does not get one, but time will tell.

east_west

ICN is the 5th largest non-NA foreign destination from the USA (in order, London, Tokyo, Paris, Frankfurt, Seoul). ICN (5.43M px/yr) has nearly the same passenger traffic as all of mainland China combined (5.95M px/yr). [Source: DOT US International Air Passenger and Freight Statistics Report for December 2015, for YE 2015]

ICN serves far more than tech -- it serves significant military/defense contractors (east coast heavy), students, entertainment industry, family travel, and tourism.

If ICN is too much lift for a 350 seat aircraft, UA is going to have a serious problem figuring out what to do with the new 77W frames.

UA doesn't have the benefit of JV feed on the ICN end and neither KE/OZ have JV feed on the NA-end, until the DL tieup with KE completes. UA should be able to compete for this market. This reinforces my point that UA is retreating from ICN to avoid the coming DL/KE combo with connecting flights on both ends.

BKK and ICN aren't comparable for many reasons.

PsiFighter37

I don't think SFO-KIX has ever had a 744 on it? Thought that was always a Dreamliner route.

As for TPE, because it is a *A hub (not sure what kind of arrangements they have with EVA), perhaps it made sense? Imagine there is a decent amount of tech folks flying SFO-TPE as well, particularly from the manufacturing side...

N227UA

Not really. UA's NRT-ICN is the usually the second last flight of the day from NRT to ICN. The last one is OZ which is operated with a narrowbody most of the time. If you happen to be on a delayed arrival flight into NRT with many connecting pax to ICN, then you're stuck in NRT overnight. I once arrived on a delayed arrival from LAX, and UA couldn't get me a seat on that last flight of the day from NRT to ICN operated by OZ.



Wrong. UA did have 744 on SFO-KIX many years ago. I remember flying on KIX-SFO on the first week of January 2009. SFO was hit by a very strong storm on that day, and we had to hold the pattern nearby SFO for around an hour and the taxiing at SFO even took around an hour. It was good that I got op upped to the exit row on the upper deck. That was the longest holding and taxiing I've ever had so far.

Also, SFO-KIX had 777 before Dreamliner came into service. I flew on UA 777 from KIX to SFO in 2012.

east_west

SFO-TPE is very tech traffic heavy and load factor 87%. BR will operate SFO-TPE 17x weekly as of Nov'17, CI ~10x weekly, and UA daily. East coast travelers have few non-stop choices (only JFK, YYZ, and very recently ORD, most/all of which are poorly timed for connections NA-bound so I imagine BR gets poor feeds). So we have to put up with the 9 hour combined TCON+SFO layover or the other EastCoast-NRT-TPE with NH the final leg.

DL also recently ended NRT-TPE service, perhaps anticipating the KE JV, which should help with east coast connections to TPE via ICN.

I mostly travel east coast to TPE and ICN, and the lower loads on SFO-ICN vs SFO-TPE are noticeable, but I imagine these changes will make ICN routings on UA difficult for last minute travel.

WineCountryUA

There was life before the Dreamliner.

Flew SFO-KIX, in 1995, a few months after KIX opened, on UA 747..

PsiFighter37

Got it. For some reason I had it in my head it was a relatively new route.

1kBill

I flew SFO-KIX on sUA 772 in early 2016.