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United ends Tokyo – Seoul route in Oct 2017

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United ends Tokyo – Seoul route in Oct 2017

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Old Apr 5, 2017, 8:39 am
  #31  
 
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Originally Posted by 764toHI
I agree with everyone's sentiment, I'd rather connect in NRT than SFO to get to ICN. Too bad the 738 sits in ICN overnight for ~16 hours.
On the other hand, connecting in SFO instead of NRT to get to ICN avoids another security check. And, for those coming from cities that don't have a nonstop to NRT, doing XXX-SFO-ICN has one less stop than XXX-HUB-NRT-ICN.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 8:41 am
  #32  
 
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Originally Posted by radiowell
I think here are the possibilities
(1) Dump all US-NRT pax going to Korea to NH NRT-ICN.
(2) Start another US-ICN route on UA metal.
(3) JV with OZ
(4) Do nothing. Cede ICN to DL/SkyTeam (with the recent JV MoU DL/KE announcement).
(5) strengthen EWR/IAD-PEK-ICN for Air China

Last edited by nuff; Apr 5, 2017 at 11:31 am
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 8:48 am
  #33  
 
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Originally Posted by radiowell
I think this is probably the most likely outcome (may be with a bird bigger than 737).

I think here are the possibilities

(1) Dump all US-NRT pax going to Korea to NH NRT-ICN.
NH currently doesn't fly NRT-ICN. They only fly HND-GMP, so passengers have a choice of going XXX-SFO-ICN or JFK/ORD/SFO-HND-GMP.

Passengers can also connect YVR/YYZ-ICN on AC if they want to stay on *A.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 8:56 am
  #34  
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Just counting all Star alliance airlines nonstop from continental North America to ICN, i see LAX SFO SEA ORD JFK YVR YYZ.

Thats obviously a smaller offering than KE+DL's upcoming JV, but respectable nonetheless.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 9:51 am
  #35  
 
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Why not a option of EWR-ICN with a 77w?
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 9:56 am
  #36  
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Originally Posted by NH_Clark
Why not a option of EWR-ICN with a 77w?
Between KE and OZ, I suspect there's already excess capacity to ICN from NYC.

ICN premium cabin fares are pretty consistently among the lowest TPACs, and SFO-ICN has long been one of the easiest long-haul upgrades in the system.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 10:53 am
  #37  
 
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Originally Posted by Austin787
On the other hand, connecting in SFO instead of NRT to get to ICN avoids another security check. And, for those coming from cities that don't have a nonstop to NRT, doing XXX-SFO-ICN has one less stop than XXX-HUB-NRT-ICN.
1) Clearly UA has decided to turn SFO into its Asia hub and totally get out of NRT; this is simply the last straw. For east coast hubs it's a bad deal, as SFO adds time vs. NRT for most Asian destinations that can be reached from NRT (NRT is much closer to great circle).

2) While this drops a security check going to Asia, it's adds a US check instead of a JP check, which is a downgrade - the NRT checks are highly efficient and polite, as compared to TSA.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 11:04 am
  #38  
 
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The only ridiculous part of this is that they did not announce a new ICN nonstop as part of this announcement. EWR and ORD should both have a nonstop to ICN given the large volume of both business traffic and total traffic. NYC-ICN is the largest Asian market for New York (about the size of NYC-MUC and NYC-TYO combined) and ORD-ICN is the 2nd largest Asian market for Chicago (about the size of ORD-Paris). UA already loses my business when I fly to Seoul, and I imagine this announcement will result in other passengers choosing other airlines when flying to Seoul as well.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 11:08 am
  #39  
 
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Originally Posted by drewguy
1) Clearly UA has decided to turn SFO into its Asia hub and totally get out of NRT; this is simply the last straw. For east coast hubs it's a bad deal, as SFO adds time vs. NRT for most Asian destinations that can be reached from NRT (NRT is much closer to great circle).
Sort of, but not really. NRT is still very much United's largest Asia hub by several metrics, but the difference is all behind-NRT flying is now on NH metal. The JV allowed UA to shed international tags which became increasingly unprofitable in view of nonstop service and tremendous increases in TPAC capacity. This flying was assumed by a carrier whose operations and cost structure makes this type of flying more lucrative, and UA gains revenue-shared access to many more points than it could viably serve with its own equipment.

True, there's a sense of nostalgia associated with a large overseas hub (vestiges of the Pan Am days) but now it's a total anachronism. Even from the East Coast, the UA/NH JV allows for more seamless pricing and connections to places like KUL, CGK, MNL, SGN, etc. than were possible before.

With respect to own-metal TPAC flying, yes, United has clearly chosen to consolidate its resources at SFO... hard to fault that.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 11:31 am
  #40  
 
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Well

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/28133138-post383.html

So the replacement for 744 SFO-ICN is... 789.

Downgauge AND eliminate a route.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 11:40 am
  #41  
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Originally Posted by EWR764
Sort of, but not really. NRT is still very much United's largest Asia hub by several metrics, but the difference is all behind-NRT flying is now on NH metal. The JV allowed UA to shed international tags which became increasingly unprofitable in view of nonstop service and tremendous increases in TPAC capacity. This flying was assumed by a carrier whose operations and cost structure makes this type of flying more lucrative, and UA gains revenue-shared access to many more points than it could viably serve with its own equipment.
Except as noted above, NH doesn't fly NRT-ICN. So the JV doesn't really come into play here.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 11:49 am
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by radiowell
Well

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/28133138-post383.html

So the replacement for 744 SFO-ICN is... 789.

Downgauge AND eliminate a route.
It could be the 747 is too much capacity. Or maybe UA plans to add another flight to ICN.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 12:12 pm
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee
Except as noted above, NH doesn't fly NRT-ICN. So the JV doesn't really come into play here.
I realize that, and as currently scheduled, NRT-ICN is the lone exception. I don't think that changes the overall point a bit. Still, it would not surprise me to see a NRT-ICN NH flight added. To the extent ORD/JFK/LAX/HNL connectors populated the NRT-ICN flight, HND-GMP would likely be just as compelling an option, if not more so for local pax.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 12:16 pm
  #44  
 
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Originally Posted by radiowell
Well

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/28133138-post383.html

So the replacement for 744 SFO-ICN is... 789.

Downgauge AND eliminate a route.
It will be after the 747 retires that the 789 will be placed on SFO-ICN. The 3 737s returning to the mainland can be better utilized here then on GUM.
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Old Apr 5, 2017, 12:19 pm
  #45  
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Originally Posted by EWR764
To the extent ORD/JFK/LAX/HNL connectors populated the NRT-ICN flight, HND-GMP would likely be just as compelling an option, if not more so for local pax.
HND-GMP would be much more convenient if you're in either Tokyo or Seoul. But UA only has the single flight SFO-HND.

I don't doubt this is an economically sensible move by UA, just don't think it can be fit within the rubric of pushing traffic to its JV partner NH.
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