rankourabu

TK via IST is still under 100k.
The extortionate prices are (for now) only if you fly United.

And whats going on? Inflation. United hands out points like crazy with credit cards and obscene amounts in $-based earnings on flights.

Have a wonder over to Delta if you want to see what the award costs will be in the near future if you think 189k is bad.

RobOnLI

Ding ding ding. This is exactly what's coming. I just booked United for NY-Tokyo r/t for 200K in Polaris. Delta wants 785K SkyPesos.

United has figured out how to monetize MileagePlus more & more each year and is quickly becoming like Delta (who utterly destroys the rest of the world's FF programs in terms of monetization and handing out SkyPesos like crazy). The more & more miles these FF programs hand out the higher & higher the redemptions will go. Within 5 years but probably 3 or less UA will also be in the 700K+ realm of miles needed for a Polaris ticket.

-RM

zapple

So, I have 10 months before my trip. Should I wait and try United again for better availability of saver business class award tickets? How long should I wait? Or maybe buy premium economy, and apply for an upgrade with miles? When the award availability in business is limited to insane mileage, what do the experts do?

MatthewLAX

You're not going to clear upgrades in advance (highly unlikely at least). You book something now--the best thing possible--that you can live with.

But only as travel approaches, like within two weeks of travel and sometimes within 1-2 days of travel, a bunch of unsold seats on partner carriers are typically released as saver space, then you can get the best deal.

Just booked JFK-IST-BKK r/t for a client for 99K each way in business...five days in advance.

I understand some people are unwilling to gamble because there is no guarantee that space will open. On the other hand, I've done this for so long that I will simply not worry about it and check in again from time to time, but only intently during the 14 day window prior to travel.

zapple

Ok. Just to be totally clear, and to risk sounding like I’m mentally slow, you suggest buying fully refundable tickets with money. Then, in the 2 weeks before the flight, try to snag business class with miles. Correct?

IAH-OIL-TRASH

No - cough up for the high mileage tickets if you’re intent on the dates and then watch for the cheap mileage tickets w/i a week or two of the trip. If you find ‘em, cancel/re-deposit the expensive ticket and redeem for the cheap one. Even if you’re subject to a re-deposit fee, you’ll probably come out far ahead.

Airlines are charging high miles far in advance for the certainty it brings.

lotemblizej

I have found award availability to be very dynamic for recent searches I have done to Japan and Europe. I literally checked daily until I found good flights at low mileage (88k to Europe, 100k to Japan) and canceled and rebooked many times until I found the best flights for me. It helps to be flexible on dates and routing.

zapple

Ouch. I don’t have 1,200,000 miles in my account. Only 600k. I thought that would be plenty, since the last tickets were 378k.

jonisflying

Just checking, did you try searching two one way award tickets? I did that for my December 2023 trip.

I did:
TPA-HND - 70,000 miles + $11.20
BKK to TPA - 99,000 miles + $95.45

And then bought a cheap 1 way ticket on Thai airways to get from Tokyo to BKK. Plus I got to spend 2 days in Tokyo!

Kacee

UA doesn't fly to BKK, so even if you assume a shot at an upgrade on UA to TYO, ICN, TPE, HKG or SIN (often not a valid assumption) this plan gets very complicated in terms of routing, fares, and class of service on your connecting flight.
Keep looking. Ten months out is a bit early to throw in the towel. If you have flexibility on dates and routing, you're likely to find better options.

As for investing everything in UA miles, bad idea. It's generally much better to focus credit card spend on a transferable currency, such as Chase or Amex.

jsloan

Airlines are loathe to give their best prices 10 months before travel, as there's no way for them to recoup that seat if it turns out they sold it at too low a price.

There is an excellent chance -- but no guarantee -- that less expensive fares will open sometime in the next ten months. Perhaps, as MatthewLAX suggested, it'll just be within two weeks of travel, but perhaps more. I rarely even start looking for travel this soon.

If "ten months from now" is "around Christmas / New Year's," you may have to get somewhat creative -- but there's still plenty of time to do so. If it's any other time, the chances are excellent that seats will appear if you wait, particularly if you can have a modicum of flexibility.

returnoftheyeti

We just book coach tickets and then change them as better routes / seats become available.

bwiadca

I was looking for similar flight to BKK 5 months out. i could only see UA/NH for 350k and up or Ethiopian for 90k. (I was looking for one way flights). Finally after checking daily for a month I snagged two J seats on Thai/Swiss combination BKK-FRA-ZRH-IAD for 90k.
Search daily, and if you are little flexible do +/- 3 days.

MatthewLAX

Keep looking. I'd imagine the 1.2 MN is because UA is taking you through SIN on its own metal, then to BKK...the SFO-SIN flights are pricing at Delta levels lately in Polaris.

Isn't there any option of taking you via Japan and then down on ANA or even with an extra stop via TPE? Those should price at the 378K level.

Book an award, which is flexible/refundable and then just improve upon it as space opens.

Worst case, you use miles to get you to BKK and then buy a one-way ticket back...the premium fares ex-BKK tend to be cheaper.

zapple

Lots of great advice. Thanks everyone. I do have some flexibility. I tried 2 one ways, but didn’t have any luck. I will keep looking for availability on United since I have so many United miles, but I did go ahead and apply for the Chase Sapphire Reserve and plan to cancel my United card.