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United "earnings initiatives" call - 21 June 2016

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Old Jun 21, 2016, 9:45 am
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06/21/2016 Investor Call Presentation

Alternate link to presentation if the ir.united.com site continues to act wonky.

United Airlines Outlines Value-Driving Initiatives
Expected to drive $3.1 billion in incremental value by 2018;
$300 million earnings benefit anticipated from continued reliability improvement
Updates second quarter passenger revenue guidance


CHICAGO, June 21, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- As United Airlines continues its efforts to create the world's greatest airline, the company is hosting a call for investors today to provide an update on initiatives the company is implementing to improve its financial performance. Additionally, United will share its current network and commercial objectives. The company also now expects second-quarter 2016 consolidated passenger unit revenue to decline 6.5 to 7.5 percent compared to the second quarter of 2015, a change from its earlier expectations of down 6.5 to 8.5 percent.

"We continue to accelerate our business performance while making strides in earning back the trust of our employees and customers," said Oscar Munoz, president and CEO of United Airlines. "With the renewed engagement of our 86,000 aviation professionals, a great global network, a highly flexible fleet plan and a healthy balance sheet all of the building blocks are in place for United to unlock its full potential."

Value-Driving Initiatives
The company will update investors on initiatives currently underway that are expected to drive more than $3 billion in incremental value to United by 2018 through a combination of cost savings and increased revenue. These initiatives include:
Commercial Enhancements: Improvements across the commercial organization will drive approximately $1.5 billion of value through increased customer segmentation, updates to its MileagePlus program and modifications to its revenue management system.
Cost Structure Improvements: Upgauging aircraft and installing slimline seats, combined with continued sensible cost management, will drive approximately $1.3 billion of benefit.
Strong Operational Performance: The company expects approximately $300 million of value from running a more reliable airline. This operational improvement will grow United's share of premium customers, reduce costs associated with delays and cancellations, decrease the number of passengers re-accommodated on other airlines and improve schedule utility.

Sustained Improvements
Since the beginning of the year, United has achieved significant improvements in its on-time arrival performance, finishing first or second among industry peers all year. United has achieved top-tier performance in baggage handling for 19 of the last 24 months.

As United continues its focus on elevating the customer experience, it recently announced the all-new United Polaris business class, free snacks and transformed airport clubs. And on July 1, United will introduce illy premium coffee on board all flights. Additionally, the company is expanding its industry-leading route network with new service to several destinations across Europe and Asia, including its new flight between San Francisco and Singapore.

For employees, the company has delivered new contracts for the pilots, IAM-represented employees and dispatchers this year and new and improved tools. These and other enhancements are delivering improved service to United's customers, with the company achieving record-high customer satisfaction scores in three of the last four months.

Webcast Information
The investor call will begin today at 9:00 a.m. CT. A live, listen-only webcast of the presentation and question and answer session will be available at ir.united.com. The webcast will be available for replay within 24 hours of the conference call and then archived on the website for a limited time.
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United "earnings initiatives" call - 21 June 2016

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Old Jun 21, 2016, 12:56 pm
  #46  
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
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Originally Posted by transportbiz
There is zero objective support for that position. DOT completion and ontime stats corroborate Delta's statements.

My own experience with DL was very much the opposite. On an award ticket from LAX-LHR-JNB my outbound from LAX was going to be about 45 minutes late, there was no serious risk of misconnect, but DL proactively rebooked me through the app with notifications on AF in FIRST class through CDG for the entire trip. I ended up in JNB 2-hours earlier that planned. Hardly what I'd call cheap or anti-consumer.
The objective evidence does not support your position. When DL made that move, they were the clear industry leader in excessive and overnight "delays"--the situations where OAL rebooking is useful and important for good customer service. The ratio was not 5-to-1 with AA in OAL opportunities. It was more like 1.66-to-1, and AA has more daily flights to boot, so there need will be naturally higher.

And the subjective evidence backs up the policies. One only needs to go the DL forum.

Originally Posted by BearX220
I think most objective observers would peg today's UA customer experience well below DL's, actually.
The hard part is too find an objective observer. Don't know if they can even exist.

DL's domestic revenue gains have come from the backs of its customers. UA will have to do the same if it wants to match. It needs to make the product less valuable. It needs to make more while giving you less. I don't want that at UA.
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 1:02 pm
  #47  
 
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Originally Posted by jhayes_1780
Going on in about 40min ... here is the PDF's from the presentation:
http://ir.united.com/~/media/Files/U...esentation.pdf
Link to the PDF seems to be dead now - can someone perhaps provide access to those slides for those of us who got here 15 minutes too late?
Starman is offline  
Old Jun 21, 2016, 1:10 pm
  #48  
 
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Originally Posted by milypan
* ~20% increase in Economy Plus and ~30% increase in front-cabin seating by 2018

That clearly implies more FCM and paid E+ seats
Or, could this mean that UA has plans to copy DL where DL made Comfort+ a completely separate booking class?
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 1:23 pm
  #49  
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Originally Posted by Starman
Link to the PDF seems to be dead now - can someone perhaps provide access to those slides for those of us who got here 15 minutes too late?
The posted link is still available (works for me) and is posted in the wiki

presentation link
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 1:32 pm
  #50  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
The posted link is still available (works for me) and is posted in the wiki

presentation link
The links don't work for me in Google Chrome on a Mac but they do work in Safari.
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 1:39 pm
  #51  
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Originally Posted by minnyfly
The hard part is to find an objective observer. Don't know if they can even exist.
Numerous objective assessments of the UA customer experience exist -- JD Power, Wichita State AQR, DOT complaint rates, Skytrax, etc., etc. -- and they all place UA in roughly the same position relative to peers.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jun 21, 2016 at 2:35 pm Reason: Discuss the issues, not the posters
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 1:51 pm
  #52  
 
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Originally Posted by minnyfly

DL's domestic revenue gains have come from the backs of its customers. UA will have to do the same if it wants to match. It needs to make the product less valuable. It needs to make more while giving you less. I don't want that at UA.
basic logic (not to mention 100 years of research) says that Delta can only raise its prices (increase its revenue premium) if it (1) attracts more passengers, and they are (2) willing to pay more to fly Delta. Nearly every single flight I book, I have options, often as good timing wise as is Delta. Delta can charge more (and often does) because people will pay more to fly Delta and more want to fly Delta, so the lower fare bucks are gone faster on Delta.

I am a good example of this. I have year in and year out spent 40-45+c/mi to fly, United used to get that business, now Delta (and VX) gets it.

You can argue that this has not happened, but United disagrees with your view, saying it's financial results are sub-par because it "Lost share of premium customers"

Those lost premium customers, like me, are why United's financial results are bad, and Delta's are good. For United to improve its financial picture it needs to win back the customers it lost, not just raise prices. Of course the status give aways and massive mileage bonuses (which I was not offered. ) are simply proof of what the actual issue is, the loss of elite and HVFer traffic.
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 2:00 pm
  #53  
 
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Originally Posted by minnyfly
I guessing/hoping that the operational buffers was an error, and that they meant more buffers. It's contradictory. They could really use a few more spares.
I only read the slides, but given how it was presented it looks like they want to cut buffers to improve the bottom line. I see it as contradictory as well. You have to optimize on one or the other. If you try to do both, you're just going to push the boundaries of lousy service even more.
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 2:09 pm
  #54  
 
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Originally Posted by cmdinnyc
I only read the slides, but given how it was presented it looks like they want to cut buffers to improve the bottom line. I see it as contradictory as well. You have to optimize on one or the other. If you try to do both, you're just going to push the boundaries of lousy service even more.
You can't reduce the buffer until operational performance is solid. The trends are good, but United clearly isn't there yet.

Someone asked in another thread how Delta manages such good operational performance and lots of padding is one reason. Alaska is on the other end of the spectrum. They run much tighter schedules than Delta with fewer spare aircraft (as a percent of fleet) with slightly better operational performance. If United can get to where Alaska is, and the focus on A:0 shows they're focusing on it, there's the potential to add more than $300M to the bottom line with the same set of resources. It will take a lot to get there and removing the operational buffer to quickly can backfire (see Alaska circa 2004).
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 2:10 pm
  #55  
 
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Originally Posted by tealeaf99
Or, could this mean that UA has plans to copy DL where DL made Comfort+ a completely separate booking class?
Possibly, but it's not clear how that move alone would increase buy-up revenue. Is the idea that Premier members would start purchasing the new booking class because they could only upgrade through one cabin, or couldn't be guaranteed an upgrade without paying?

Either way it sounds like more bad news for elites.
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 3:21 pm
  #56  
 
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Originally Posted by cmdinnyc
I only read the slides, but given how it was presented it looks like they want to cut buffers to improve the bottom line. I see it as contradictory as well. You have to optimize on one or the other. If you try to do both, you're just going to push the boundaries of lousy service even more.
Yeah, that gave me pause too, but I think the point was that right now they have to build in a lot of buffers because operations are unreliable. If they can make ops more reliable, then they reduce the need for buffers and can save money.
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 3:41 pm
  #57  
 
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Originally Posted by char777
The links don't work for me in Google Chrome on a Mac but they do work in Safari.
Don't work in IE, but do work in Firefox
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 3:52 pm
  #58  
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Originally Posted by char777
The links don't work for me in Google Chrome on a Mac but they do work in Safari.
Originally Posted by Starman
Don't work in IE, but do work in Firefox
there is an unusually "/~/" in the url UA uses that may be the source of the problem

However on my Win10 PC; FF, Chrome and Edge work but IE does not????
and the simple UA investor site -- http://ir.united.com/ fails on IE
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 4:32 pm
  #59  
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Originally Posted by cerealmarketer
I listened and my interpretation is the cost saving is less about changing policy, but about being more reliable so the OAL rebook isn't necessary to begin with.
Agreed, but we'll see how it plays out with the front line. If they hear that, who knows how it will be interpreted by the agent responsible for rebooking you.

I had some unnecessary pushback on a recent delay that would have necessitated an overnight. Only way out was AA. Ultimately got it, but it took the usual fighting that's been the case since the merger.


Originally Posted by minnyfly
What I take from the PDF is be careful what you wish for. For UA to improve their financial status, in part they will need to do what DL and others have done--downgrade their customer's experience. I didn't see much good news in the presentation.
I have no idea what you're talking about. I fly both DL and UA. The DL experience is superior in nearly all aspects. From instant ticketing, to on board service, to baggage guaranteed at the carousel in 20 minutes.


Originally Posted by minnyfly
This is where I'm afraid UA will follow DL and clamp down on OAL rebooking when it is needed.
I haven't had much issue with DL getting rebooked on OAL. They've sent me to AC, UA, AS, even AA (AA before they cut ties with them).



Originally Posted by minnyfly
DL's cheap and anti-customer in the OAL rebooking area. They would rather keep you captive on them and wait, wait, wait. The 5-to-1 ratio was evidence that DL doesn't like to rebook, not because they were five times less likely to need it.
Nonsense. DL has rebooked me on OAL plenty of times. And even on shorter delays, DL opens the floodgates and lets you rebook on any DL flights with space to/from any alternate airports (and then some).

UA doesn't even post known delays the way DL does, and even if a delay is posted, the UA IRROP tool doesn't let you change flights sometimes until it's too late.

A delay on DL is far less stressful than a delay on UA.


Originally Posted by spin88
United is in a box of its own creation. It now has large numbers of corporate deals at 40+% off. If it lowers its pricing to attract fliers who are not tied in "unmanaged fliers" to use Jeff's old term, people like me (and I think you), well then it lowers its cost to the managed flier to way below what OALs are charging.
Don't forget the loss of MileagePlus as a draw for many customers. By tinkering with both the earning and redemption side of things, many customers have lost interest in MileagePlus as a loyalty program. When combined with the service issues already noted, it's going to be difficult to woo those folks back.


Originally Posted by minnyfly
DL's domestic revenue gains have come from the backs of its customers. UA will have to do the same if it wants to match. It needs to make the product less valuable. It needs to make more while giving you less. I don't want that at UA.
Giving you less? Have you been in a SkyClub lately? The food, beverage, and decor blow away UA's Clubs. Have you been on a DL plane in, oh, the last 3 years? Free PTVs, power ports for everyone (not every other like UA), plus USB. Pillows in First, water bottles, etc. Best on time in the industry and guaranteed baggage delivery in 20 minutes.

Not sure what you mean by giving less, seems that DL gives you more for your money.

Maybe the real problem is UA's unreliable operation is getting people OAL'ed to DL, they experience it, and never come back.
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Old Jun 21, 2016, 5:16 pm
  #60  
 
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Originally Posted by minnyfly
The objective evidence does not support your position. When DL made that move, they were the clear industry leader in excessive and overnight "delays"--the situations where OAL rebooking is useful and important for good customer service. The ratio was not 5-to-1 with AA in OAL opportunities. It was more like 1.66-to-1, and AA has more daily flights to boot, so there need will be naturally higher.

And the subjective evidence backs up the policies. One only needs to go the DL forum.


The hard part is too find an objective observer. Don't know if they can even exist.

DL's domestic revenue gains have come from the backs of its customers. UA will have to do the same if it wants to match. It needs to make the product less valuable. It needs to make more while giving you less. I don't want that at UA.
Sorry, you're simply wrong. No objective data supports your position at all. And certainly they exist the DOT has no ax to grind, doesn't give a hoot who is better or worse, they just report the data. AA when combined with US has more daily flights, however that only exacerbates the already greater need to access OAL accommodation because they also have far more cancellations and delays. Delta probably got the brunt of the load because AA and DL share more destinations and routes than do UA and AA.

Subjective evidence is an oxymoron.

I don't see HOW UA could make it's product less valuable, and everything in the presentation indicates UA recognizes a need to add value. I don't know where you come up with this stuff.

January 2013 through January 2016 DOT BTS data:

Airline Total flights Cancelled Delayed

AA 1,803,986 1.62% 20.22%
DL 2,432,635 0.52% 14.72%
UA 1,516,377 1.24% 20.89%
US 1,025,753 1.45% 17.78%

Last edited by transportbiz; Jun 21, 2016 at 5:25 pm
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