Sep 21, 2017, 4:08 pm
The future of the LAX hub?
Dec 1, 2017, 10:09 pm
#376
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
You can't have it both ways. In 2010 UA/CO were not merged, and it wasn't even announced until May. So that capacity is not from a merged level. It would be proper to then compare against pre-merger AA/US. As it shows, UA/CO wasn't as large as AA/US. So UA/CO never really had a chance at #1 in the long-run unless they significantly grew and/or AA/US shrank before the latter hooked up. To call them #1 in that time period is more based on a technicality than actual growth or decline of a market.
If you look at raw traffic and not percentages, you will see that UA has not "been in a downward spiral" at LAX, has not "substantially pulled down capacity", nor implemented "ongoing cuts". Those are false statements. Even if you give all SkyWest flying to the UA banner in 2010, which is not accurate, UA is off only 10% at LAX. The likely truth is that UA is somewhere in the flat to down 6 or 7% range for traffic LAX since 2010. If UA worked for a customer back then, it likely works for them today.
If you look at raw traffic and not percentages, you will see that UA has not "been in a downward spiral" at LAX, has not "substantially pulled down capacity", nor implemented "ongoing cuts". Those are false statements. Even if you give all SkyWest flying to the UA banner in 2010, which is not accurate, UA is off only 10% at LAX. The likely truth is that UA is somewhere in the flat to down 6 or 7% range for traffic LAX since 2010. If UA worked for a customer back then, it likely works for them today.
2010: UA + CO17.6%; AA+Eagle 15.9%; DAL 11.1%, SWA 11.6%, SkyWest 4.3%.
2011: UA+CO 16.26% market share; AA+Eagle 16.48% share; DL 10.79% market share. Skywest (mostly UA, but some DL) ; 6.13%
2013: AA/Eagle: 17%, US 3% (20% total) UA 16.3%, DAL 13.5%, SWA 11%, AS 5% , SkyWest 3.5%.
2017: AA: 18.8%; DL 16.7%; UA 14%; SWA 11.6%; AS+VX 8.5% [Skywest is now included in UA and DL]
They were #1 when Jeff took over, fell to #2 in 2013, and are now #3 .
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Dec 2, 2017 at 12:08 am Reason: unneeded, snarky comment removed
Dec 2, 2017, 1:10 am
#377
Join Date: Apr 2011
Programs: WN, AA, UA, DL
Posts: 1,313
Your argument continues to be based on a technicality because UA/CO merged before AA/US. It's like saying DL was the largest airline before UA/CO and then AA/US merged, and now they must be shrinking because they're #2. Even when combining all carriers, neither the combined AA or UA is a clear #1 in the 2010-2011 timeframe. They wobble back and forth.
UA was a strong #2 at LAX before Jeff set foot on the property (2009). They're a strong #3 today. Their LAX traffic has been remained remarkably steady for more than a decade. The narrative that they're shrinking and collapsing because of Jeff simply isn't true. Their fall from #1 due to a growing AA happened well before Jeff was in the picture.
UA was a strong #2 at LAX before Jeff set foot on the property (2009). They're a strong #3 today. Their LAX traffic has been remained remarkably steady for more than a decade. The narrative that they're shrinking and collapsing because of Jeff simply isn't true. Their fall from #1 due to a growing AA happened well before Jeff was in the picture.
Last edited by minnyfly; Dec 2, 2017 at 1:17 am
Dec 2, 2017, 9:30 am
#378
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Honolulu Harbor
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 15,023
I would think loss of the 4 CO gates would impact UA's subsequent strategies out of LAX. It's been so long I've forgotten if the loss was voluntary or mandated...
Edit: Looking back at an old thread it looks like UA gave 'em up voluntarily (who gives up gates at LAX voluntarily?!?!?!?) and AA picked 'em up because of a standing deal w/ LAWA to obtain returned gates. That kind of restricted LAX plans going forward.
Edit: Looking back at an old thread it looks like UA gave 'em up voluntarily (who gives up gates at LAX voluntarily?!?!?!?) and AA picked 'em up because of a standing deal w/ LAWA to obtain returned gates. That kind of restricted LAX plans going forward.
Last edited by IAH-OIL-TRASH; Dec 2, 2017 at 9:42 am
Dec 2, 2017, 9:51 am
#379
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,460
Dec 2, 2017, 2:37 pm
#380
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
I would think loss of the 4 CO gates would impact UA's subsequent strategies out of LAX. It's been so long I've forgotten if the loss was voluntary or mandated...
Edit: Looking back at an old thread it looks like UA gave 'em up voluntarily (who gives up gates at LAX voluntarily?!?!?!?) and AA picked 'em up because of a standing deal w/ LAWA to obtain returned gates. That kind of restricted LAX plans going forward.
Edit: Looking back at an old thread it looks like UA gave 'em up voluntarily (who gives up gates at LAX voluntarily?!?!?!?) and AA picked 'em up because of a standing deal w/ LAWA to obtain returned gates. That kind of restricted LAX plans going forward.
Dec 11, 2017, 2:42 pm
#383
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: New York, NY
Programs: UA, AA, DL, Hertz, Avis, National, Hyatt, Hilton, SPG, Marriott
Posts: 9,454
Rumor has it a new UA LAX longhaul will be announced shortly for a summer start. Elsewhere, some are speculating that it will actually be a resumption of a former UA flight. Expecting 787-9 service.
HKG? FRA? CDG? KIX? GRU?
HKG? FRA? CDG? KIX? GRU?
Dec 11, 2017, 2:47 pm
#384
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: DAY
Programs: UA 1K 1MM; Marriott LT Titanium; Amex MR; Chase UR; Hertz PC; Global Entry
Posts: 10,159
Dec 11, 2017, 2:48 pm
#385
Join Date: Sep 2015
Programs: UA Million Mile, Mileage Plus Premier 1K, SkyMiles Gold Medallion, AAdvantage Gold
Posts: 875
If true, I would go HKG or ICN. If it weren't for the limit on China-US flights, I would add PEK. FRA is less likely just because of the JV with LH.
Dec 11, 2017, 4:22 pm
#388
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: LAX
Programs: AA Gold (prev. Ex Plat for 10 years); DL Plat; UA Gold; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,339
GRU at one point had DL (not daily), KE (also not daily) and AA. Now it's down to just AA nonstop, although daily. Brazil market may not have recovered enough yet for a 2x daily nonstop in that market. It's a nice trip though, I've done it with AA and really enjoyed the length of the flight in both directions.
Possible HND?
Dec 11, 2017, 4:29 pm
#389
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,460
My first guess would be HKG. I'd personally like to see FRA . . . there's still relatively little UA lift west coast to Europe.
That would take all the fun out of planning multi-carrier, separate ticket connections.
No slots.
That would take all the fun out of planning multi-carrier, separate ticket connections.
No slots.