Sep 21, 2017, 4:08 pm
The future of the LAX hub?
Dec 11, 2017, 5:06 pm
#391
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this is what i predicted last time there was a new LAX route rumor this past spring (LAX-SIN was the result - nobody predicted that!):
my money would be on HKG. before AA added the route in the past year, CX was the only airline that flew it.
all LAX transoceanic flying is done with the 789; this would put UA at a competitive disadvantage relative to CX/AA's premium cabins on a mature route that has plenty of HVFs. i don't see UA flying a 77W in a W-pattern just to get polaris seats on the route. UA's fleets (and even sub-fleets) are becoming increasingly 'locked' to one or two hubs.
if not HKG, then SGN would be my second choice. it fits the 'long, thin' profile of the 787, there's no nonstop competition on the route, and i believe LA has the largest vietnamese expat population in the US. 2015 PDEW for LAX-SGN was 279, compared to 174 for SFO-SGN (link to .pdf of OAG report). we all know UA is a lot more willing to start TPAC service ex-SFO compared to LAX, so new LAX additions probably require significantly better figures like that. vietnam's economy may have developed to the point where UA feels comfortable that they can fill the front of the plane, which is essential for longhaul routes.
BKK is my distant third place pick. the only reason why i even bother to mention BKK is that 1+ years ago, a LAX GS flyer with a solid reputation on this board said that he/she was told by a GS agent that a return to BKK for UA was imminent. OTOH, that was still in the smisek era, and a lot has changed since then.
all LAX transoceanic flying is done with the 789; this would put UA at a competitive disadvantage relative to CX/AA's premium cabins on a mature route that has plenty of HVFs. i don't see UA flying a 77W in a W-pattern just to get polaris seats on the route. UA's fleets (and even sub-fleets) are becoming increasingly 'locked' to one or two hubs.
if not HKG, then SGN would be my second choice. it fits the 'long, thin' profile of the 787, there's no nonstop competition on the route, and i believe LA has the largest vietnamese expat population in the US. 2015 PDEW for LAX-SGN was 279, compared to 174 for SFO-SGN (link to .pdf of OAG report). we all know UA is a lot more willing to start TPAC service ex-SFO compared to LAX, so new LAX additions probably require significantly better figures like that. vietnam's economy may have developed to the point where UA feels comfortable that they can fill the front of the plane, which is essential for longhaul routes.
BKK is my distant third place pick. the only reason why i even bother to mention BKK is that 1+ years ago, a LAX GS flyer with a solid reputation on this board said that he/she was told by a GS agent that a return to BKK for UA was imminent. OTOH, that was still in the smisek era, and a lot has changed since then.
Dec 11, 2017, 5:31 pm
#392
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I just wonder if it's going to be a new location at all - the newest Dreamliner route adds have been seasonal routes to Europe out of SFO (MUC, ZRH) and longhaul routes to existing destinations (SFO/LAX-SIN, IAH-SYD). It seems like outside of the seasonal TATL routes, UA is more focused on bulking up service to existing destinations where they already have personnel, etc. in place. If I had to guess with regards to this rumor, I would pick LAX-FRA.
Dec 11, 2017, 5:43 pm
#393
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Lax-SZX
Shenzhen is the hub of *A partner, Shenzhen Airlines. It will attract local traffic in the Pearl River Triangle including Guangzhou. It will avoid direct competition with CX and SQ if UA chooses LAX-HKG, instead.
Dec 11, 2017, 6:12 pm
#394
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Air China launched LAX-SZX nonstop last week. UA will not launch LAX-SZX.
Dec 11, 2017, 6:44 pm
#395
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Has anyone surveyed how SoCal's Vietnamese population feel about UA yet? I bet there has been a bit of turbulence over the last 8.03 months.
Dec 11, 2017, 9:47 pm
#398
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Dec 12, 2017, 2:49 am
#400
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MAN summer seasonal? Or more likely, CPH... Plenty of *A connections and not flown by SAS. Seems like a smart route choice, even though Y fares will have to be low with Norwegian in the market.
Dec 12, 2017, 4:25 am
#401
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UA has been dialing back their routes to Scandinavia over the years - EWR-ARN is only seasonal now, and OSL and CPH are both gone - so I highly doubt they'd add a route there ex-LAX before adding back ex-East Coast routes.
Dec 12, 2017, 4:34 am
#402
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But most of those have been taken over by SAS, no? I look at LAX-CPH the same way as SFO-ARN, both primed with connections to SAS. I do think it's likelier SAS will start either or both of those routes, rather than UA.
Dec 12, 2017, 9:05 am
#403
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Not gonna happen.
Dec 12, 2017, 9:13 am
#404
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Great Circle Mapper distances:
LAX-HAN 7,656sm
LAX-SGN 8,169
LAX-SIN 8,770
It's argued that LAX-SIN is viable as an ultra-long-haul route because of paid premium cabin fares. Do you think United (or anybody?) is going to get that mix on LAX-SGN?
Planespotters.net shows that Vietnam Airlines has 11 787-9s -- and it is a SkyTeam partner with Delta. Even then, I don't hold my breath.
Dec 13, 2017, 6:20 am
#405
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Nobody on this thread won a prize for their guesses. 
SFO won, LAX lose!
Here is a preliminary announcement from JOSECONLSCREW28:
Originally Posted by JOSECONLSCREW28
It's SFO-PPT 788 starts October 30 2018.
SFO won, LAX lose!
Here is a preliminary announcement from JOSECONLSCREW28:
Originally Posted by JOSECONLSCREW28
It's SFO-PPT 788 starts October 30 2018.