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-   -   2013 Mileage Plus Program Speculation (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united-airlines-mileageplus/1387742-2013-mileage-plus-program-speculation.html)

Michael D Nov 17, 2012 9:55 pm

If the minimum spend for each status tiers comes into play instead of offering PQMs will they just ask for cash?

"Michael D we notice you have flown more than the minimum number of legs/flights on United segments and spent $X. Would you like to buy up to one of the following levels by paying the following?
1K: $(8,000 -X)
.
.
.
Silver: $(5,000 - X)"

Will/should E+, TODs, buy ups, mile purchases count?

If only BIS purchase counts then PQMS for cash will be a thing of the past?

Enquiring minds want to know. (TM) ;)

Beerman92 Nov 18, 2012 3:17 am


Originally Posted by rankourabu (Post 19699543)
I would argue there would be very few "people" who would do that voluntarily - its irrational, people dont want to spend more money than they have to.

Now, there would perhaps be companies/businesses that may spend more than they have to for whatever reason (flexibility, etc), but that is not rational for a person out of pocket.

Depsite what some believe here - most of the plane is filled by people who are rational buyers, and will always choose lowest price, and would weigh benefits if choosing a higher priced ticket.

Sounds like people proposing a revenue system have never actually bought a ticket for themselves out of their own pocket.

I don't want to argue semantics, and perhaps I'm misreading, but a business or an individual will be equally rational buyers when they purchase a fare class that matches their needs. If you consider 3 general buckets of fares as:
1) discount/non-refundable/change fee
2) discount/refundable/limited availability
3) full fare/refundable/last seat availability

Paying more or less for a given ticket occurs frequently. Regardless of whether its a business, an individual or a hybrid paying for the ticket.

emcampbe Nov 18, 2012 6:22 am


Originally Posted by ilovesprint (Post 19701967)
I spent 11k for 41,000

Stupid CVG prices. Program needs some sort of revenue component

I forget exactly what my 2011 spend was, but was definitely over $10,000 for gold. Try flying out of CVG with many of your trips to Canada, where the slightly >800 mile round-trip to YYZ usually costs more than a ~4500 round-trip to SFO or SEA. That's what I do.

I'll make plat this year - first time ever I'll make my status on miles instead of segments, but definitely surpass what the rumored revenue requirements were for 1K from last year, just not the miles.

entropy Nov 18, 2012 8:37 am


I don't want to argue semantics, and perhaps I'm misreading, but a business or an individual will be equally rational buyers when they purchase a fare class that matches their needs. If you consider 3 general buckets of fares as:
1) discount/non-refundable/change fee
2) discount/refundable/limited availability
3) full fare/refundable/last seat availability
Indeed. And given that #2 is often at least 2x #1 and #3 is 2X of #2, I'd argue that most of the time those $$$ fares are purchased out of necessity. I'm sure there are a few people out there who would gladly drop $1200 on a domestic ticket instead of $300 when both are available, but if a corporate traveler did that, without a really good reason, there'd be hell to pay. If UA moves to a revenue-based system, travelers who are motivated by status, will be incentivized to covertly increase their spend, by booking later than they would otherwise, etc... Companies don't want that.

rankourabu Nov 18, 2012 8:42 am


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 19705204)
If UA moves to a revenue-based system, travelers who are motivated by status, will be incentivized to covertly increase their spend, by booking later than they would otherwise, etc... Companies don't want that.

Thats actually a very good point.
So not only a revenue system will hurt people who buy their own tickets, it will also hurt companies who purchase tickets for their employees.

RNE Nov 18, 2012 9:07 am


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 19705204)
If UA moves to a revenue-based system, travelers who are motivated by status, will be incentivized to covertly increase their spend, by booking later than they would otherwise, etc...

Travelers already delay booking to get 150% PQM fares, which are of course higher. Got any other dire "predictions" for the revenue-based model? :rolleyes:

RNE, notifying employers to fire their GS employees. :D

rankourabu Nov 18, 2012 9:10 am


Originally Posted by RNE (Post 19705339)
Travelers already delay booking to get 150% PQM fares, which are of course higher. Got any other dire "predictions" for the revenue-based model? :rolleyes:

This of course would be easily remedied with status and points going to the actual purchaser of the ticket - only fair if the system is revenue

entropy Nov 18, 2012 9:51 am


Travelers already delay booking to get 150% PQM fares, which are of course higher. Got any other dire "predictions" for the revenue-based model?
The incentive is far less if you're booking for a 50% advantage vs. a 200-400% advantage, in addition, anyone traveling any reasonable amount will easily get at least gold, with or without bonus EQM.

Beerman92 Nov 18, 2012 12:06 pm


Originally Posted by rankourabu (Post 19705351)
This of course would be easily remedied with status and points going to the actual purchaser of the ticket - only fair if the system is revenue

What good does status do a company?

And the logical next step for adopting a revenue system where the points go to the purchaser instead of the traveler is to eliminate the points as they exist today. What good do points do a company? They provide a discount on future travel. So if you are going to have a system of having points go to the purchaser you will see points eliminated and purchasers will receive either larger discounts on all tickets they purchase or start to earn dollar valued points to apply on future flights for a discount. Any time that type of system has been adopted the value of the points is less than the current United points system.

RNE Nov 18, 2012 2:51 pm


Originally Posted by entropy (Post 19705544)
The incentive is far less if you're booking for a 50% advantage...

But that insidious incentive is present, nonetheless. Revenue is already the very basis for GS, the pinnacle of elite levels. Are they (to quote you) "incentivized to covertly increase their spend"? :rolleyes:

RNE, what scoundrels! :rolleyes:

nova08 Nov 19, 2012 9:23 am

The main thing about a revenue based system is that it will completely shake up business travel. Sure partners at consulting firms or those of you working for yourselves may be able to get away with higher econ fare classes or even YBs. However, if the industry goes to a revenue system I can guarantee you expense compliance dept's that have become much more strict in the past 5 years will become even more strict. As a mid level employee I can periodically get away with higher econ fare classes when the schedule is better or it is last minute travel, however I suspect in a revenue system my purchasing activity will face much more scrutiny.

Also I'll say it again as soon as UA and/or others go to revenue system, my loyalty to any airline will be gone. I will book purely on price. No longer will I spend an extra $100 here an there to stay with the same airline. If airlines don't think that matters then it is what it is. I know 1K can be earned for a relatively cheap cost but in the past few years fares have increased. If you have the flexibility and can plan in advance yes you can manage 1K for ~5k. However in the past 2 years on 60/40 business/personal travel typically booking business travel 1-3 weeks in advance and personal a little more I've spent an average of $25k for 1K. If I shifted to completely personal I suspect I would be in the $5-10k range. However once again, in a revenue system that 5-10k would be spread out to whatever airline works best for me, if it's UA ok, if it's not then UA just lost a bunch of money that they have to make up with someone else flying them.

bocastephen Nov 19, 2012 9:57 am


Originally Posted by RNE (Post 19705339)
Travelers already delay booking to get 150% PQM fares, which are of course higher. Got any other dire "predictions" for the revenue-based model? :rolleyes:

RNE, notifying employers to fire their GS employees. :D

Sure, if someone wants to risk getting fired or losing an account over improper T+E billing...


Originally Posted by schley (Post 19701017)
Why are you people even wasting time arguing over details of a program change to revenue based, that no other airline has? The leading FF program is going to change the entire rules and history of the loyalty program because???????????

Oh yeah it's FT and people love to make up an alternate reality then get others to bite on their alternate reality and now we have people who probably never even believed this will happen thinking it might so they have to take a position on how it would be IF it did happen.

Not going to revenue based, why would the industry leader change first? It won't. Too outside the box.

Finally some logical sense here.

glasnost7 Nov 19, 2012 11:43 am

If anything, down the road you might see a revenue component that awards varying percentages of PQM for different fare classes. In addition to the 150% you already see for Y/B, lower fare classes might earn 0% or 50% or so. I don't think a strictly revenue system is in the cards and I don't think the traveling consultant industry could cope; good seats, priority boarding and uprade possibilities/instruments make weekly travel at least somewhat bearable.

briank1973 Nov 19, 2012 12:30 pm

Revenue-base FF program
 
Just a note, Virgin Australia uses a revenue-based system for FF points. Qantas, however, does not. There's no reason that the bigger airline and FF program to be the first one to make such a decision. Unless United is haemorrhaging money from it's FF program, there's no reason to change it.

The only thing I could possibly see is giving less EQM for KLG and possibly other fares, which would make getting 1K for $3K impossible.

rankourabu Nov 19, 2012 2:22 pm


Originally Posted by briank1973 (Post 19711924)
The only thing I could possibly see is giving less EQM for KLG and possibly other fares, which would make getting 1K for $3K impossible.

Remember when CO did 50% EQMs on lowest fares unless booked on their own website - this could be a good compromise as well.


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