2013 Mileage Plus Program Speculation
 

The end of Q3 is around the corner and I haven't heard anything about what 2013 might bring for MP elites.

Have you heard any rumours? Are you anticipating any increased benefits, or are you afraid of degradations? What change might send you running to AAnother AAirline? Does the recent 'Expert Mode' issue give you confidence that UA will now look out for elites or does it make you worry that they'll sell you out for CCs and TODs?

Last year I was worried about the possibility of minimum spend but I've hit that spurious figure and then some. This year I wonder if 1K will require 125k PQM or if Star Gold will be limited to Platinum and up.

What do you think?

Please, no more major changes.

Almost every change made by this management has been negative to our FF benefits.

Also, please don't give them any ideas.

Best I could hope for is to remove or lessen the GPU/SWU restrictions. I think this would alleviate a lot of the problems with the expert mode discussions. At least mine anyway.

To the contrary, IMO, anyone who takes "comfort" or "confidence" in the newUA based on their miserable performance on ExpertMode is either not paying attention to what the company WANTED to do, or they are blind as a bat.

Dave

Don't really have any insights but on the above two items, i really hope not. For one thing, it would make UA non-competitive with other airlines. Why would I want to be in a program that requires me to fly 25k additional miles to get top tier status with UA when AA or DL and others offer it for 100k? (and better elite treatment, too!). On the *A gold status, I don't know of any *A airlines that require more than 50k for *A gold status. In fact, on some you can get it for less. So UA would be the only one requiring higher PQM for gold. Other alliances also offer their gold equivalent at 50k so again, UA would no longer be competitive in that regard.

Of course, thats all rational conjecture/hope on my part. And we all know UA has been anything but rational since the $misek takeover :mad::td:

My guess is that UA holds steady with the status quo in 2013.

Revenue based program in 2013? I say it won't happen.

Loosen up SWU restrictions (less than W fare)? I don't think this will happen either. UA is neither best in class (AA) nor worst in class (DL) on this front.

From a high level elite perspective, I don't see any of the important things changing - 1K line, SDC, no charge changes to award bookings, mileage bonuses for status levels, YBM ups, etc.

One thing that may change - they have been trying to kill RPU's for a year... I'd guess they will wait until 2014 to implement this change though.

If anything, I see them tweaking credit card benefits (or a new card?) adding further benefit to this valuable source of revenue.

If they are getting hurt by the departure of elites (some of whom who are even VVF'ers), then I would not be surprised to see a DEQM promotion. (yes, UA-NYC, I am not claiming that it is impossible that VFF'ers are leaving, just that we can not prove it with the numbers the airlines present publicly. :))

Reduced capacity and higher prices? These will affect all of us, not just elites...

Actually, DL's program is 25K/50K/75K/125K. They don't have a specific 100K level, it is 125K.

REALLY hoping UA doesn't follow suit on this, if they are, I'm following my wife to AA.

Looking at the competition, I would not be surprised to see the new year bring:

• fare class restrictions on RPUs (like AS). The same earning requirements as in 2012 (100k miles earns 4, versus 8 in sUA.)
• 5–10% increases in award ticket mileage cost, justified because UA has the "best award ticket availability in the industry". Maybe 2014 will bring fuel surcharges on partner awards (like AA).
• same-day standby remains free, but same-day confirmed change carries a fee for Platinum and below (like AA).
• discounted, instead of free, access to international E+ for Gold and lower elites (like DL).

Off the top of my head I can't think of any obvious innovations. Some creative options that I'd be surprised to see:

• Confirmable upgrade space reserved for you at time of booking, instead of hoping there is still room after ticketing happens.
• Free 7-day fare holds for elite members; coupled with no free 24-hour cancellation for flights booked within 7 days of travel.
• "Drink chits" in 2013 valid for drinks, IFE, or Wi-Fi (but not food) on flights where those things cost money. But: drink chit expiration dates strictly enforced.
• Blocked middle seats for GS and full-fare passengers flying in coach on the 787.

Thanks for the correction, didn't realize that was the case for DL.

Just took a quick look at DL benefits, they do offer some nicer perks for higher tiers, at least on paper. Their miles seem to be worthless, though, based on my limited experience trying to use them...

UA won't. DL goes to 125k because they have rollover and because they throw tons of EQM out on credit card spend.

Their SWUs are also best used in your bathroom.

No worries, and DITTO. ;)
I think the program COULD see changes in:
RPUs,
Award mileage increases, and
Some type of (relatively minor) spend qualification for higher level elites.

I believe management would LOVE to spitcan RPUs if they could get away with it, but still may take some time, as noted upthread.
Award increases would probably not be the end of the world, and any spend qualification wouldn't hurt very many here anyway.

All of which is to say that "I don't think much will happen"


Dave

Yep...if their SWUs were worth at least what UAs were I would have switched to DL pretty shortly after 3/3.

2013 Mileage Plus Program Speculation
 

Interesting.

Empty middle seat could be a revenue enhancer with a refund if the flight were oversold.

Funny comment about drink chits, I would love to see MP elite cards or CCs loaded with drinks or miles à la SAS. Want Duty Free, E+ or booze in Y? You can pay with miles. Let UA get rid of RDM liability and pax can feel like they got a bargain.

And DL SkyPesos are a joke. For WAS-CPT in biz the choice is 315,000 RDM through ATL or 120,000 on SA with better service. No question.

SQ sends me $150 in free onboard duty free certificates when reaching PPS. They are used just like cash. Would be nice if UA did such a thing for GS at least (PPS=GS)

Are you debating matching to AA? Switch now rather than speculate.

They are only a Gold...

And IAD based...

What can Gold's expect in 2013? More of the same, I would guess.

Nice post. Sort of
United has already offered a bonus EQM promotion.
LOL at the notion that credit cards are a "valuable" source of revenue

Being an AA Plat (not Exec Plat) was far better than being a UA 1K last year. I suspect that things are still this way.

Yes, connecting in ORD and DFW won't be fun, but neither is finishing #56 on an upgrade list for every flight ex-IAD.

I do think they will give fewer miles on the cheap fares....I really don't hope so

I agree with you supporting my hypothesis! :D

They've already tried to kill of RPUs once before, and I'm guessing, per capita, they've managed to greatly reduce the number they're awarding. I think those stick around for awhile.

2013 Mileage Plus Program Speculation
 

Just for the record, I should be 1K by November and I'm not even remotely contemplating a switch (to AA or anyone else).

Dear United, can I have my 50% bonus back, I swear, I will forever be more loyal, pretty please.

Every year I say, 'If they just keep things the same as last year, I'll be happy.' Never seems to happen.

I wouldn't LOL - Credit cards are major, major sources of revenue for businesses. The perks such as free bag, etc. are just enticements for people to get the card. The real money is made in interest fees on carried monthly balances. I once worked for a company whose credit card division made more income on interest fees than the operation of the business! From a business perspective, branded credit cards are a gold mine.

My point about Gold is that I did not think AA was status matching Golds. I thought they are only matching 1K's and GS's.

I am not saying that Gold is better (or worse) than similar AA status.

I have been doing a fair amount of SDC (Thanks UA for this great, no cost feature!) lately, out of ORD and SFO. Even changing hours before the flight I am ending up between 5th and 15th on the upgrade list (sometimes out of 40 or 50 people).

When UA's computer system blew up a couple of weeks ago and I was changed (at 11:00 PM) to the next mornings 8:00 AM IAD-SFO, I immediately jumped to number one on the list (Y), and cleared at the gate 30 minutes before the flight.

Thank you. I guess... :)

I was thinking about the possibility of a more general (all comers) DPQM or bonus PQM incentive. UA will see what kind of results they get from this current incentive. If it drives enough traffic and brings back enough fliers, then they won't go further. If they are still feeling some pain then perhaps a broader PQM incentive could be offered.

Yes, you may. Just fly 100,000 miles and we'll give them 'back' to you!

Really? 50k is quite common but I think there are more that are higher than ones that are lower. The largest one, Miles&More is 100k for gold.

FLASH-JUST IN: We will all be whisked to Cinderella's Castle(business first 787, of course) where we will be met by our Fairy Godmother(JSmi in disguise) who will grant our every elite wish for 2013!

I'd like to see them get rid of the CPU entirely and go back to the e500 certs.

They definitely won't do that; it would be far too confusing.

it works fine over at AA. I don't see how confusing it would be. In fact, it would mean the end of UG lists with 50+ people on it.

I believe kale's tongue was planted firmly in their cheek when they made the above statement...

What was the rationale to get rid of stickers in the first place?

Were they immediately replaced by CPU's, or did CPU's follow later?

CO felt UDUs was where the industry was headed. So before the merger when CO and UA were "partnering" or whatever it was called UA decided to go with UDU.

I wouldn't. There are lots of changes that upset me and cause me to shift SOME business (sometimes just a few flights as a silent protest). If they did that I would leave, as it would make a serious negative impact on upgrades, and make my regular work flights unbearable flying ~300K miles per year. I cant imagine getting 90% upgrades with e500's.

For a 1k if you flew 100,000 miles you earned enough e500s to upgrade 20,000 of those miles (approximately), you got 8 CR1s which I would say could upgrade about another 20,000 miles, you got 6 SWUs which could upgrade at least 30,000 miles. So that's 70,000 of the 100,000 miles. For the last 30,000 miles of flights you had the option of purchasing more e500s or using the 200,000 RDMs you earn to upgrade.

LH for one. And AC is moving STARGold to its new 50K elite tier. The 35K one will become STARSilver (though will give lounge access within NAmerica, which may or may not include UCs and US PCs, but includes all MLLs.

But I don't see any major changes next year. The problems with integration have still not all be resolved, so adding misery by changing FF program terms would be suicidal for UA. Doubt SWUs will move back (CO days) to most all economy fares which is why I will stop at Plat status for next year. SWU-eligible fares have been beyond my budget and R0 has been too prevalent on my overseas flights to take the risk of another $500-$600. I'll still get some CR1s/RUs and have award flexibility and no fees on my transactions.

Speaking of GPUs, what do you folks think about a co-pay system for applying GPUs? This would bring the GPUs in-line with mileage upgrade co-pays.

The benefit is that you'd only have to pay if your upgrade was applied, so ill feeling about buying a W fare only to not be able to apply your GPU.

:confused:

Why give UA bad ideas?

Current W class restriction is already bad enough. Often W fare is $1000 more than K.

Why not ask UA to lift W class restriction like AA does?

No thanks. I would imagine that UA would take the co-pay cash right upon requesting the upgrade, just like they do with mileage-sponsored upgrades. Having the ability to use GPUs on fares less than W would be nice; but, having to already pay the premium to buy a W fare over a cheaper fare is bad enough.

Agreed on the no thanks-and besides, I already paid to earn my GPU's [along with my RPU's for that matter] and I really don't want have to then pay again to use them

Suspect OP was intending to drop the purchase fare requirements (like is true for miles) in exchange for the co-pay.
One downside of that approach is, for many, the co-pay is not re-imbursable by their employer while a higher fare might be. There are other downsides and I doubt this change would be flavored by corporate travellers. Self employed and leisure traveller might be more flavored inclined.