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April 2012 DOT Data Released

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Old Jun 14, 2012 | 6:10 pm
  #31  
sxf24
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Originally Posted by channa
It's possible. But none of these data show DL being 2x the next lowest rate, which is what we've seen from UA over the past two month. If this is a trend, that's really bad.
Are you trying to say that the rate of complaints doesn't matter, only the difference between the next lowest ranking?
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Old Jun 14, 2012 | 6:21 pm
  #32  
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Originally Posted by sxf24
Are you trying to say that the rate of complaints doesn't matter, only the difference between the next lowest ranking?
I think they both matter.

The rate is important, and the comparison to others gives perspective.
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Old Jun 14, 2012 | 7:35 pm
  #33  
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Originally Posted by channa
It's possible. But none of these data show DL being 2x the next lowest rate, which is what we've seen from UA over the past two month. If this is a trend, that's really bad.
I agree, and I'm not trying to downplay these piss-poor results. However, there is evidence (based on the last mega-merger) that the results improve as the integration progresses. We'll see if UA holds true to that.
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Old Jun 14, 2012 | 7:38 pm
  #34  
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Originally Posted by sxf24
Are you trying to say that the rate of complaints doesn't matter, only the difference between the next lowest ranking?
Those us with a background and experience in statistics would say that, while the absolute rates are all low, the real interest lies in statistically significant differences, as has been shown with traditionally high PMCO (now COdbaUA) IDB rates.

I understand your personal opinion and situation may be different.
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Old Jun 14, 2012 | 7:49 pm
  #35  
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Originally Posted by channa
I think they both matter.

The rate is important, and the comparison to others gives perspective.
Yes, it shows UA's performance has been relatively consistent while its competitors have gotten better.
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Old Jun 14, 2012 | 7:51 pm
  #36  
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Originally Posted by UA-NYC
Those us with a background and experience in statistics would say that, while the absolute rates are all low, the real interest lies in statistically significant differences, as has been shown with traditionally high PMCO (now COdbaUA) IDB rates.
If the absolute numbers really are all so low then why does it matter that one carrier is "twice as bad" as another? Any given passenger is still tremendously unlikely to experience the issue, right?

Whether I've got a 1:10,000 or 2:10,000 chance of an IDB the odds still say that it is never going to happen to me, even if I fly 100 segments a year over 40 years, right?
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Old Jun 14, 2012 | 7:58 pm
  #37  
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Originally Posted by EWR764
Incidentally, there is not one period in the last four years where pre-merger UA registered fewer DOT complaints than Continental. I guess CO really had everyone brainwashed...
October 2011, United 1.84 complaints per 100,000 enplanements, Continental 1.92

August 2011, United 2.54, Continental 2.65

January 2011, United 1.58, Continental 2.11
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Old Jun 14, 2012 | 7:59 pm
  #38  
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Originally Posted by EWR764
I agree, and I'm not trying to downplay these piss-poor results. However, there is evidence (based on the last mega-merger) that the results improve as the integration progresses. We'll see if UA holds true to that.
Like US AIR? Judging from what I have seen so far there is an equally good chance they will not pull out of it anytime soon. They made a big blunder with the decision to go with the cheaper IT option Smisek Mr. Nice guy videos are a joke and the "new" coffee sucks not to mention the CFO comment on elites.
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Old Jun 14, 2012 | 8:15 pm
  #39  
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Originally Posted by cordelli
October 2011, United 1.84 complaints per 100,000 enplanements, Continental 1.92

August 2011, United 2.54, Continental 2.65

January 2011, United 1.58, Continental 2.11
Touche. I was just looking at the periodic results noted above. The fact that both were well into the merger process by then is not to be discounted, however. As an independent carrier, CO came in with a better DOT complaint rate. Sadly, the product of the integration has been a worst-of-both scenario.

Originally Posted by iquitos
Like US AIR? Judging from what I have seen so far there is an equally good chance they will not pull out of it anytime soon. They made a big blunder with the decision to go with the cheaper IT option Smisek Mr. Nice guy videos are a joke and the "new" coffee sucks not to mention the CFO comment on elites.
US complaints rate were a full point better than UA's and a similar margin better than during their integration with HP.
Last edited by EWR764; Jun 14, 2012 at 8:24 pm
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Old Jun 14, 2012 | 8:57 pm
  #40  
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Originally Posted by fastair
Sykes is correct. Airlines don't get to submit certain data and exclude wx/atc. If that was the case airlines with hubs in ewr/JFK/lga would have HA like ontime numbers. They all count. Heck, even ord, with the Obama related atc issues doesn't get to exclude delays that are caused by presidential fundraising/campaigning trips or weekends home. They all count.
OK. I will go w your more up to date info. Years ago I know as a fact that was not the case as I used to put those numbers together for a legacy carrier to submit to the DOT. But it has been some time since then and that was my one and only job in the airline industry.
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Old Jun 14, 2012 | 9:42 pm
  #41  
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Originally Posted by sbm12
Whether I've got a 1:10,000 or 2:10,000 chance of an IDB the odds still say that it is never going to happen to me, even if I fly 100 segments a year over 40 years, right?
Actually, 100 segments a year x 40 years = 4,000 segments.

With 4,000 plays and 1:10,000 odds, odds are it won't happen to you (40% chance).
With 4,000 plays and 2:10,000 ddds, odds are it will happen to you (80% chance).
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Old Jun 15, 2012 | 8:44 am
  #42  
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Originally Posted by channa
Actually, 100 segments a year x 40 years = 4,000 segments.

With 4,000 plays and 1:10,000 odds, odds are it won't happen to you (40% chance).
With 4,000 plays and 2:10,000 ddds, odds are it will happen to you (80% chance).
Yes, an 80% chance you will be involuntary denied boarding over a 40 year time period, assuming the IDB rates never change.

If you look at it on an annual basis, your odds on an IDB are small under either scenario.
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Old Jun 15, 2012 | 9:01 am
  #43  
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Originally Posted by sxf24
Yes, an 80% chance you will be involuntary denied boarding over a 40 year time period, assuming the IDB rates never change.

If you look at it on an annual basis, your odds on an IDB are small under either scenario.

Well if you dig into it, theoretically if you fly that much, you'll have status, so a better opportunity to having a pre-assigned seat, so a lower chance of being IDBed.

So the IDB rates for non-status flyers are probably higher.
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Old Jun 15, 2012 | 9:23 am
  #44  
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Originally Posted by aacharya

April 2012 reflects the fallout from the 3/3 debacle, and it is not surprising UA is this low. Let's wait until June or July data, when things have gone back to normal.
You call what we have today normal?
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Old Jun 15, 2012 | 9:24 am
  #45  
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Originally Posted by channa
Well if you dig into it, theoretically if you fly that much, you'll have status, so a better opportunity to having a pre-assigned seat, so a lower chance of being IDBed.

So the IDB rates for non-status flyers are probably higher.
Fully agree.
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