May operational performance
Jun 10, 2012 | 2:47 pm
#31
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: JZRO
Posts: 9,175
Trying to interpret numbers on an airline of 2 merged lines is difficult at best, convoluted at worst. You cannot look at these numbers and tell how many high revenue passengers have bailed, what new business is in, how routes compare to pre-merger. I doubt anyone at WHQ is dancing in their cubicle, but I wouldn't look for anyone jumping from their windows either. Much more time will be necessary to tell whether this merger will succeed or be a huge failure (still my bet).
RNE, I'll stake my reputation on it (such that it is).
Jun 10, 2012 | 4:25 pm
#32
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 11,869
Here is my read of the May over May numbers ...
PRASM +0.3% (Compare to Delta +6%) (Compare to US Air +6%) (Compare to LUV + 5to6%)
Seat Miles +0.4% (Compare to Delta -0.9%) (US Air +0.5%)
Load Factor -0.1% (Compare to Delta +0.2%) (US Air -1.1%)
On board Passengers -0.5% (Compare to delta -0.6%) (US Air -0.9%)
Nothing for UAL to be proud of....
PRASM +0.3% (Compare to Delta +6%) (Compare to US Air +6%) (Compare to LUV + 5to6%)
Seat Miles +0.4% (Compare to Delta -0.9%) (US Air +0.5%)
Load Factor -0.1% (Compare to Delta +0.2%) (US Air -1.1%)
On board Passengers -0.5% (Compare to delta -0.6%) (US Air -0.9%)
Nothing for UAL to be proud of....
Jun 10, 2012 | 5:13 pm
#33
Join Date: Feb 2006
Programs: UA, Starwood, Priority Club, Hertz, Starbucks Gold Card
Posts: 4,007
"United Upgraded On Solid Outlook"
According to this analysis, UA is upgraded from "underperform" to "neutral." I think you can interpret it two ways: 1) UA's March-May performance (or the lack thereof) was expected, and perhaps it was better than expectations; 2) the "neutral" recommendation suggests that the jury is still out on UA's long-term prospects. I believe there's an element of truth in both.
Mind you, UA had stated earlier that they deliberately reduced bookings (via pricing, etc.) in advance of the March 3 cutover, so the reduced PRASM is in some ways exactly what UA had planned.
According to this analysis, UA is upgraded from "underperform" to "neutral." I think you can interpret it two ways: 1) UA's March-May performance (or the lack thereof) was expected, and perhaps it was better than expectations; 2) the "neutral" recommendation suggests that the jury is still out on UA's long-term prospects. I believe there's an element of truth in both.
Mind you, UA had stated earlier that they deliberately reduced bookings (via pricing, etc.) in advance of the March 3 cutover, so the reduced PRASM is in some ways exactly what UA had planned.
Jun 10, 2012 | 5:53 pm
#34
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
"United Upgraded On Solid Outlook"
According to this analysis, UA is upgraded from "underperform" to "neutral." I think you can interpret it two ways: 1) UA's March-May performance (or the lack thereof) was expected, and perhaps it was better than expectations; 2) the "neutral" recommendation suggests that the jury is still out on UA's long-term prospects. I believe there's an element of truth in both.
Mind you, UA had stated earlier that they deliberately reduced bookings (via pricing, etc.) in advance of the March 3 cutover, so the reduced PRASM is in some ways exactly what UA had planned.
According to this analysis, UA is upgraded from "underperform" to "neutral." I think you can interpret it two ways: 1) UA's March-May performance (or the lack thereof) was expected, and perhaps it was better than expectations; 2) the "neutral" recommendation suggests that the jury is still out on UA's long-term prospects. I believe there's an element of truth in both.
Mind you, UA had stated earlier that they deliberately reduced bookings (via pricing, etc.) in advance of the March 3 cutover, so the reduced PRASM is in some ways exactly what UA had planned.
Second, the "we cut traffic" line is a rather odd fairy tale UA invented. Their traffic numbers went up, not down (so that is not evidence they gave up bookings, instead they are selling all they can) and then their involentary bump numbers went dramatically up - and lead all carriers. So more tickets sold more bumps does not equal forgoing sales. it was just something they made up to try to cover their bad performance. No excuse this month.
Jun 10, 2012 | 6:06 pm
#35
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Bay Area, CA
Programs: UA Plat 2MM; AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 35,092
Second, the "we cut traffic" line is a rather odd fairy tale UA invented. Their traffic numbers went up, not down (so that is not evidence they gave up bookings, instead they are selling all they can) and then their involentary bump numbers went dramatically up - and lead all carriers. So more tickets sold more bumps does not equal forgoing sales. it was just something they made up to try to cover their bad performance. No excuse this month.
The traffic cut was an interesting one. Anyone who dug into it would see right through it. Not only what you mentioned, but prior to the cutover they even said they were not overbooking for that weekend. So 3-ish days of no overbooking should would barely make a blip on a report covering an entire quarter.
Jun 10, 2012 | 6:45 pm
#36
Join Date: Feb 2006
Programs: UA, Starwood, Priority Club, Hertz, Starbucks Gold Card
Posts: 4,007
...the "we cut traffic" line is a rather odd fairy tale UA invented. Their traffic numbers went up, not down (so that is not evidence they gave up bookings, instead they are selling all they can) and then their involentary bump numbers went dramatically up - and lead all carriers....
Jun 10, 2012 | 6:54 pm
#37
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: SEA
Posts: 12,485
The traffic cut was an interesting one. Anyone who dug into it would see right through it. Not only what you mentioned, but prior to the cutover they even said they were not overbooking for that weekend. So 3-ish days of no overbooking should would barely make a blip on a report covering an entire quarter.
I'm sure this will be discussed on the 2Q earnings call, but I would imagine a drop in over-bookings would take 25-40bps off PRASM growth.
Another factor to consider is that China yields have fallen into the crapper, and UA has substantially more exposure to China than any other US carrier. Japan, on the other hand, has been relatively robust, which is helping DL. The trends were reversed after the tsunami...
Jun 10, 2012 | 11:38 pm
#38
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SF Bay Area
Programs: UA GS MM, Marriott Life Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Southwest Alist pref, various others of little note
Posts: 2,873
"United Upgraded On Solid Outlook"
According to this analysis, UA is upgraded from "underperform" to "neutral." I think you can interpret it two ways: 1) UA's March-May performance (or the lack thereof) was expected, and perhaps it was better than expectations; 2) the "neutral" recommendation suggests that the jury is still out on UA's long-term prospects. I believe there's an element of truth in both.
Mind you, UA had stated earlier that they deliberately reduced bookings (via pricing, etc.) in advance of the March 3 cutover, so the reduced PRASM is in some ways exactly what UA had planned.
According to this analysis, UA is upgraded from "underperform" to "neutral." I think you can interpret it two ways: 1) UA's March-May performance (or the lack thereof) was expected, and perhaps it was better than expectations; 2) the "neutral" recommendation suggests that the jury is still out on UA's long-term prospects. I believe there's an element of truth in both.
Mind you, UA had stated earlier that they deliberately reduced bookings (via pricing, etc.) in advance of the March 3 cutover, so the reduced PRASM is in some ways exactly what UA had planned.