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Originally Posted by DaveS
(Post 34563366)
There was some reporting here a couple of weeks back on the rate of excess deaths. It is still well above the average before 2020, but those deaths are not coming from covid. The speculation I saw was that some of it was the result of delayed diagnosis/treatment for things like cancer.
I hate to say it, but this is exactly the point that was made when some were advocating restrictions and lockdowns at the drop of a hat over the last 2.5 years. Restrictions and lockdowns were never consequence free, but there was a reluctance to even accept on the pro side that any negative consequences or any cost benefit analysis should be done (and by cost I do not mean money), or the effect of constant messaging to stay away from the NHS in order to protect it. Unfortunately anyone who raised this point was quickly painted as some far right selfish uncaring conspiracy theorist who must be silenced as they were clearly wanted to "let the bodies pile high". |
Originally Posted by KARFA
(Post 34563486)
Indeed there is a lot of reporting on this at the moment and as you say it is not because of covid - other conditions exist despite some thinking otherwise.
I hate to say it, but this is exactly the point that was made when some were advocating restrictions and lockdowns at the drop of a hat over the last 2.5 years. Restrictions and lockdowns were never consequence free, but there was a reluctance to even accept on the pro side that any negative consequences any cost benefit analysis should be done (and by cost I do not mean money), or the effect of constant messaging to stay away from the NHS in order to protect it. Unfortunately anyone who raised this point was quickly painted as some far right selfish uncaring conspiracy theorist who must be silenced as they were clearly wanted to "let the bodies pile high". If you have evidence that there was buckets of spare NHS capacity unused during COVID, I’d suggest you bring it up with some medics and see what response you get. |
It wasn't the lockdowns but the fact that the NHS was slammed with Covid cases (and the risk of getting Covid) that may have kept people away. That was the case everywhere in the world.
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Originally Posted by nk15
(Post 34563510)
It wasn't the lockdowns but the fact that the NHS was slammed with Covid cases (and the risk of getting Covid) that may have kept people away. That was the case everywhere in the world.
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Originally Posted by Kgmm77
(Post 34563509)
I’m not sure what the point being made here is? How would having less restrictive COVID restrictions create more capacity to deal with other illnesses? Surely the opposite would’ve occurred (more COVID illness, even less capacity to deal with existing conditions?).
If you have evidence that there was buckets of spare NHS capacity unused during COVID, I’d suggest you bring it up with some medics and see what response you get. I am afraid other approaches were available which could have balanced covid against other considerations, but unfortunately the whole approach seemed to be more concerned with saving the NHS rather than thinking about what overall may result in fewer deaths. This was a complex and nuanced debate which could have been had, but unfortunately some couldn't see past covid. |
Originally Posted by KARFA
(Post 34563527)
Interesting. So no measure was too harsh to save someone from a covid death over the last few years (which many on this board argued), but when it comes to the excess deaths we are seeing now it's just tough luck?
I am afraid other approaches were available which could have balanced covid against other considerations, but unfortunately the whole approach seemed to be more concerned with saving the NHS rather than thinking about what overall may result in fewer deaths. This was a complex and nuanced debate which could have been had, but unfortunately some couldn't see past covid. |
Originally Posted by fransknorge
(Post 34563352)
Instead of looking at daily numbers, let's look at the same number but aggregated over a year. In England, in 2020 there was 67630 deaths, in 2021 63156 deaths and in 2022 so far there has been 33838 deaths. Assuming a growth rate of zero (which is one assumption as valid as any other), this will be circa 51000 deaths in 2022. Might be close to the final number, might not be, impossible to know right now. But the death rate in 2022 was quite flat so far compared to 2020 and 2021 which had lot of variability.
So suddenly it does not look like 30 times better. |
Originally Posted by Kgmm77
(Post 34563533)
I’m all ears on what those approaches should’ve been.
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Originally Posted by KARFA
(Post 34563583)
If only you said that two years ago. I am afraid it’s a bit late now.
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Originally Posted by Kgmm77
(Post 34563646)
You have nothing other than bunch of straw men.
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Originally Posted by DaveS
(Post 34563366)
There was some reporting here a couple of weeks back on the rate of excess deaths. It is still well above the average before 2020, but those deaths are not coming from covid. The speculation I saw was that some of it was the result of delayed diagnosis/treatment for things like cancer.
On that particular subject of excess deaths, I refer you to the very detailed work done by the Financial Times which prove those excess deaths are the results of the NHS collapsing, which has multiple reasons. Impact of lockdown is not considered to be the cause, for several reasons (one of them is that most countries who lockdown in Europe do not have excess deaths currently). https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...172873728.html, So, to conclude a gargantuan thread: (1/4) • Excess deaths are currently over-stated in many countries due to a failure to age-standardise • But in England there remains a significant non-Covid excess which cannot be explained by extreme heat, unlike other countries (2/4) • Delays in urgent & emergency care are almost certainly a large factor • These stem from a shortage of capacity elsewhere in the hospital system • Which in turn stems from under-investment in social care, IT and other infrastructure, plus other issues with patient flow (3/4) • This is not an exhaustive list, either on the global excess death picture or on the pressures facing the NHS • Please let me know if I’ve missed anything, or if there are other areas I should be digging into • I’m now going to lie down for approximately a week (4/4) • To state the obvious, in the weeks of work that went into this, I’ve not encountered any evidence for either vaccines or lockdowns playing any role in this excess mortality • This is not to dismiss wider impact of lockdowns (cc @snj_1970), just saying no clear role here |
Indeed the NHS is a broken organisation it desperately needs reform. It has had real terms increases for more than 20 years now, and at current rates does
Sadly the only thing politicians of both sides seem to be able to offer is just pouring more money in to that black hole in hope of some miraculous change. |
Originally Posted by KARFA
(Post 34563672)
you are proving my point really about the inability to consider there might be other approaches :)
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Today's weekly data from the ONS survey. In the week ending 23 August 2022:
One in 60 people in England had Covid (last week one in 45) One in 65 in Wales had Covid (last week one in 45) One in 50 in Northern Ireland had Covid (last week one in 70) One in 55 in Scotland had Covid (last week one in 40) |
Originally Posted by KARFA
(Post 34563486)
Indeed there is a lot of reporting on this at the moment and as you say it is not because of covid - other conditions exist despite some thinking otherwise.
I hate to say it, but this is exactly the point that was made when some were advocating restrictions and lockdowns at the drop of a hat over the last 2.5 years. Restrictions and lockdowns were never consequence free, but there was a reluctance to even accept on the pro side that any negative consequences or any cost benefit analysis should be done (and by cost I do not mean money), or the effect of constant messaging to stay away from the NHS in order to protect it. Unfortunately anyone who raised this point was quickly painted as some far right selfish uncaring conspiracy theorist who must be silenced as they were clearly wanted to "let the bodies pile high". https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...eeae10f56.jpeg The average wait for an ambulance to arrive in England after a heart attack or stroke is now 59 minutes (July 2022), with 10% waiting more than 2 hours (compared to a target of 18 minutes). The waiting list for treatment is now 6.73 million people. There were lots of good points made during the lockdowns about the costs - lost education, social consequences, lower economic growth etc - but I don't remember any being made that without a lockdown we would have better healthcare. Planned operations were not just cancelled in mass because of lockdowns - they were only cancelled for times and locations where healthcare capacity was not available (especially ICU beds which might be needed for post operative care) regardless of if there was a lockdown or not. My personal opinion is the people driving this current lockdown discussion (the last lockdown being over 1.5 years ago) are more interested in stoking a culture war than fixing the issues and root causes. |
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