FlyerTalk Forums - Local lockdowns in the UK

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Misco60 (Post 34189422)

From what I can tell, Wales, unlike the rest of the UK, does not include LFTs in its testing figures. In England, about 90% of the tests reported each day are LFTs and so as a very rough figure you'd expect England to be reporting about 10 times the number of tests per head of population, or about 180 times the absolute number.

This will also affect the case numbers, especially as asymptomatic individuals who return a positive LFT are not required to have a follow-up PCR test. (In fact, no-one I know who has returned a positive LFT recently followed it up with a PCR.) In effect, you could say that Wales is for the most part counting only symptomatic cases. NHS Wales recognises this, and warns on its website that testing data should be interpreted with caution.

what does the ONS survey say? I believe that isn’t dependent on LFT/PCR test results?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Misco60 (Post 34189422)

It is a problem when the test results are reported UK wide though. The infection map shown above makes Wales look in a better position when it is not.

Quote:

Originally Posted by KARFA (Post 34189450)

what does the ONS survey say? I believe that isn’t dependent on LFT/PCR test results?

Wales and England (and Scotland for that matter) have similar levels of infection according to the ONS. See my post a few posts back.

Quote:

Originally Posted by KARFA (Post 34189450)

what does the ONS survey say? I believe that isn’t dependent on LFT/PCR test results?

As far as I know, the ONS survey is entirely independent: they take their own swabs from a statistically significant sample of households (no hospitals or care homes) and have them analysed in independent labs. It's undoubtedly a better measure of the prevalence of covid than the government's daily figures, and shows that Wales currently has the highest level of infection in the UK.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveS (Post 34189691)

It is a problem when the test results are reported UK wide though. The infection map shown above makes Wales look in a better position when it is not.

I agree that it's a problem, but that is surely down to the UK government choosing to publish and compare statistics produced by very different methods in each of the nations. It's not as if Wales is trying to deceive, and I doubt very much that appearing to be in a better position than England on the UK government's dashboard was a consideration when they decided how they were going to manage testing - Wales does (or tries to do) what is best for Wales. :)

I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on this.

I tested negative after Covid ~10 days ago. I’m now visiting my elderly parents in Italy. I’m due to see a friend who yesterday had a contact with someone positive.

Statistically, we’re talking about an Omicron variant in both cases.

Should I be even remotely concerned about bringing the virus back home to parents after seeing my friend this evening?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ringingup (Post 34191631)

You are talking of a contact of a contact. You will most likely have closer contacts that you do not know about, so I would suggest you should be no more worried or cautious than you would normally be.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Freddorick (Post 34083820)

Maybe someone knows this on here:

I recently had a positive PCR test. I used randox as I still had one of their kits at home. Now I would like to get an NHS covid recovery certificate as this would have a longer validity than my current vaccine validity for travel the EU.

I’m getting a bit of a runaround from 119 and randox as to how it is possible to add my test. Randox claims the NHS should add it, the NHS says I have to contact randox. Is there a way to get a covid recovery certificate based on a private test?

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluemoon68 (Post 34084609)

I don’t think you can do this. There is no way that Randox can feed into the NHS database and I doubt the NHS verify private test results.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlaneSpeaking (Post 34084766)

Hi Freddorick, I’m sorry I can’t answer your question but I tested positive last week and was able to upload my test result to the NHS by scanning the QR code on the test cassette via the NHS site. I guess you can’t do this if the test was private? However, how does one actually get the NHS recovery certificate? Does it just pop up on the app after so many days? Either way, I hope you manage to get sorted.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silver Fox (Post 34085430)

If he has one, could he take an LFT and upload that to show proof of recovery? Or is it only a PCR that gives a recovery certificate? I think you might have said that but it is early and only one coffee so far!

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveS (Post 34084822)

If it is very recent you could still get a NHS test. You would have to say you have symptoms when arranging it.

There would be no test cassette involved since it was a PCR. For the recovery certificate it does appear in the app after a delay if it was a PCR. I think it is the same for a rapid test, but I am not sure on that one.

Thanks for replies on this everyone. In case this is helpful to someone else in the same situation:

After much back and forth on randox and NHS hotlines: There is no way to get an NHS recovery certificate without taking a NHS test. What I did was:

1) Pay some company called Medicspot 60 GBP to issue me a recovery letter based on my randox test. I figured if I test positive somewhere else in the coming months, maybe this letter will help.
2) I took a new NHS test. I was still positive and got the QR NHS recovery certificate 10 days later. It seemed kind of wasteful to do so, but it seems that this is the only way to get a recovery certificate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveS (Post 34191742)

Thanks, DaveS. That is what my rational side thinks too. Also, it would be very early for him to be contagious.

Daily data:

Cases 15,026 (23,245 last Monday)
Deaths 113 (96)
Patients in hospital 15,882 (17,839 on the 15th)
Patients in ventilation beds 326 (320 on the 15th)
Vaccinated up to and including 24 April 2022:
First dose: 53,149,072
Second dose: 49,695,725
Booster: 39,169,853

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 44.7% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 11.9%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 267.94 today. The weekly percentages are broken in the official government web page because of the Easter holiday, so I use my own calculation here. There has been no update for hospital admissions since the 15th.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ringingup (Post 34191953)

Thanks, DaveS. That is what my rational side thinks too. Also, it would be very early for him to be contagious.

The chances of you, having so recently had and recovered from Covid, would pick it up again (a necessary pre-requisite for passing it on again to your parents) is also very small. I was recently in this position with my parents, one of whom is more vulnerable due to a pre-existing immune condition and age. I delayed going to see them until day 12 (having been asymptomatic since swabbing negative since day 8), which is 2 more days than the government website recommends for vulnerable people.

Daily data:

Cases 16,579 (23,245 last Tuesday)
Deaths 451 (96)
Patients admitted 1,328 (1,629 the 15th)
Patients in hospital 15,882 (17,839 on the 15th)
Patients in ventilation beds 326 (320 on the 15th)
Vaccinated up to and including 25 April 2022:
First dose: 53,157,460
Second dose: 49,703,318
Booster: 39,185,170

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 29.1% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 52.8%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 318.6 today. The figures for admissions are back and improving.

Daily data:

Cases 17,224 (26,147 last Wednesday)
Deaths 304 (508)
Patients admitted 1,186 (1,439 the 16th)
Patients in hospital 14,097 (17,951 on the 19th)
Patients in ventilation beds 326 (336 on the 19th)
Vaccinated up to and including 26 April 2022:
First dose: 53,166,150
Second dose: 49,711,368
Booster: 39,204,386

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 30.2% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 53.9%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 294.6 today.

Good to see some fairly continual substantive declines in daily admissions and numbers in hospital :tu:

I know that deaths is a lagging indicator, but it seems surprising that they are still going up so strongly rather than reaching a plateau. How lagging are they?

I am not sure they are going up strongly, or at least I don't think I could describe it that way. Using the measure DaveS posts which is "Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported" this is the chart and 7 day average since the start of this year.

It may be this is not really falling much now is that many of the deaths are not directly as a result of covid, or at least it isn't a major factor in cause of death - i.e. that many of the deaths are ones which are for more normal reasons, but that probability means a proportion of these daily deaths will have covid.
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