Internaut

This all seems to be moving far faster than in the Alpha and Delta waves.

corporate-wage-slave

Delta yes. Alpha less so. This is the stuff of future scientific reasearch but these variants, plus the initial infection version, all seem to have different epidemical trajectories, with Alpha and Omicron showing similarities. Which is less odd than it sounds since Omicron is not an evolution of Delta. In the next paragraph I'm mainly using ONS population numbers.

Delta reached its peak in the UK on 21 July 2021, with a 7 day case rate of 500 per 100k. (There are some complexities here, the pandemic has gone on so long that the demography of the UK has changed somewhat, so not all numbers are comparable). Delta then went on below the 500 mark all the way to 7 December 2021. Its lowest point was 309 on 17 September, which at the time was considered quite a high level of infection compared to the aftermath of Alpha, when we got as low as 21 per 100k, in May 2021. Then from 8 December 2021 onwards we went back over 500 as we hit Omicron, which peaked at 1885 on 5 January 2022. Today's official figure for the UK is 484 on ONS figures, about 470 on ECDC 7 day figures and 565 on UKHSA figures (these have a delay built into them).

But in round terms today is probably the day we can say the Omicron surge has receded to below its starting point and if current trends continue then we should fairly soon go below 309 - Wales already has - and thus below all parts of the summer and autumn of 2021. But we have a long way to get to the post-Alpha levels - maybe that won't matter so much. Sage released some papers today pointing out the risk of other variants, to sound a note of caution here, there again we know a lot more now than we did then.

seattle29

Well I thought it was extremely rare to catch COVID twice, but after starting to cough a lot this morning, I took a lateral flow at lunchtime and got a very strong positive, two thick lines. Current guidance says you don't need to follow up with a PCR but I went to a drive through test centre later in the afternoon anyway - should get the result back tomorrow. No other symptoms except a very bad dry cough - booster seems to be doing its job and stopping all the other symptoms.

fransknorge

No it is not extremely rare. Omicron has immune escape capacity and an infection by Omicron also give little immunity if you are immune naive. Currently circa 10% (with a large error bar) of new cases are re-infections.

flashware

This is very good news cws.

DaveS

Daily data:

Cases 34,377 (46,025 last Saturday)
Deaths 128 (167)
Vaccinated up to and including 18 February 2022:
First dose: 52,556,789
Second dose: 48,853,106
Booster: 37,964,306

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 24.6% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 22.5%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 141.3 today. The number of deaths in the last week has dropped to 968, the first time it has been blow 1,000 since 4th January. The case figure is low because Scotland did not report today for some reason. Wales does not report on Saturday.

lhrsfo

Money will play into it in other ways, and I'm specifically thinking about tax. This idea that you can work in the sun in a foreign country will most likely be challenged by a) visa rules and b) local tax rules. Broadly, working abroad is a no-no for personal legal rules and also from corporate ones. How does a company explain to the Spanish, for example, that it employs people who are working in Spain but not paying any Spanish employment taxes? And then, when it does pay those taxes, how does the employee explain to the Spanish that (s)he isn't paying Spanish tax on money earned while working there?

flashware

How is working abroad a no no?

DaveS

It is not, but there are time limits on how much time you can spend in different countries before you need to pay your taxes there. If you spend at least 183 days in the UK you are a tax resident, but other factors come into play if it is less which means you may or may not be paying UK tax. You will be taxed somewhere for sure.

There always have been people than can work from home which can be in the UK or overseas, but they are a minority and I think will continue to be. Companies will decide whether staff working from home will be more effective than their competitors are with staff in office.

flashware

Yes I am aware of this.

Internaut

Just to be clear here, I’m talking about perhaps booking two to four weeks, somewhere, where perhaps half the time is spent remote working, connected to the UK. This could all be a bit moot anyway, on two levels. Firstly, the business unit I work for was sold onto another company, last year, who have a far more robust approach to, erm, management* and are legally very risk averse. Second, the ideal type of accommodation for this type of endeavour is rather pricey at the moment as people seem to prefer something more private than a packed out hotel.

* Quite frankly the only reason I’m inclined to stick around are that this year’s activities should be a big boost to my CV.

Silver Fox

My ex-manager was living in Spain, employed by the UK, paid in GBP, reported into the UK and was an extremely loyal company man and did everything by the book. He got HR and his veep to sign off on it, everything documented, every base covered. He never claimed for flights/travel to the UK. Then the HR chief got wind of it. It was no coincidence that she had a flat in Spain and when she decided that he couldn't do it any longer and rather than telling him to stop decided to start disciplinary action against him, and the veep. Her words to one of the directors were "I don't see why he should be able to do it when I can't". No kidding. Anyway, as the veep was involved they had to be "tried" by someone that was the veep's senior in a different business unit. The "judge" wasn't happy when he saw that neither the veep or my friend had done anything wrong and had followed all protocols. The HR person that had blessed it also stood as a "witness". Case dismissed.

Friend went from loyal company man for 30+ years to a rather cynical chap and retired about a year later. So, if you do it, get it all in writing is my advice lest you fall foul of jealous types.

DaveS

Daily data:

Cases 25,696 (41,270 last Sunday)
Deaths 74 (52)
Vaccinated up to and including 19 February 2022:
First dose: 52,566,648
Second dose: 48,871,729
Booster: 37,989,163

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 25.5% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 19.3%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 144.4 today. Scotland and Wales have still not managed to provide any data for yesterday or today so we expect a jump tomorrow or whenever they can get some thing together. Today's cases figure for England/NI per head is now lower than New Zealand. We may find out tomorrow how much longer the UK can produce this sort of data assuming the PM makes the promised announcement.

Ardecos

I believe that from 18th February PHS (Public Health Scotland) have stopped providing any updates at weekends.

corporate-wage-slave

For those interested, the Prime Minister's statement to the House of Commons on the Living with Covid plans will be about 15:30 hrs and will doubtless be covered on ParliamentTV, BBC News and BBC Parliament. There will be a press conference later, but I don't have a time for that yet.

As far as I can make out it won't address travel restrictions (or what little is left of them) since that's on a slightly different timetable for the end of the month. This depends a bit on full Cabinet which starts shortly.