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Old Oct 15, 2020, 6:45 pm
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Local lockdowns in the UK

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Old Feb 9, 2022, 9:17 am
  #9151  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveS
We have to be wary of a single days data. The bulk of the figure was from England and Tuesday is always high with the weekend backlog.
QED!
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Old Feb 9, 2022, 9:43 am
  #9152  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveS
I hope you recover fully soon. At least you will have the full set of NHS certificates in a few days. I tried a large glass of port to cure it. Completely ineffective but it did not stop me trying it again and again. A bit like the governments red list and hotel quarantine.

I was just pinged for the first time ever by T&T after a flight I might have been on a couple of days ago. After a cancellation I had 2x PLF for different flights an no way to know if the one that pinged me is the one I was on. Dumb system! So some rapid tests for the next few days.
I tired the same, but thanks to what it did to my sense of taste, I nearly spat the wine out, first time. But I persisted. I hypothesised the problem was more about taste, than smell, so tested and proved my hypothesis by pinching my nose for each sip of wine. Where would we be without the scientific method?
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Old Feb 9, 2022, 9:55 am
  #9153  
 
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Any word on the border rules? Articles mention that Johnson is planing to remove all "domestic restrictions" but so far I didn't find anything about borders.

It doesn't make sense. The way I understand it, right now a person without a vax certificate (accepted by the UK) has to take a covid test on day 2. But if positive test won't lead to an isolation after 21st February, what's the point of making people test themselves?
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Old Feb 9, 2022, 10:00 am
  #9154  
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From 11 February you won't need any testing for coming to the UK, just fill in the PLF. This was announced a few weeks ago.
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Old Feb 9, 2022, 10:27 am
  #9155  
 
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Originally Posted by KARFA
From 11 February you won't need any testing for coming to the UK, just fill in the PLF. This was announced a few weeks ago.
That is only for the recognisably vaccinated. Someone with one of he Russian vaccinations would still need the tests. They spend quite a lot of money here, so failing unilateral recognition of those vaccines getting rid of the requirement would be good. Hopefully that is not too far off.
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Old Feb 9, 2022, 10:33 am
  #9156  
 
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Originally Posted by DocWatson
Thanks DaveS I got my Covid passes back today, and whilst the temptation to go and sample all the pub's whiskies for medicinal purposes is there it doesn't feel overly responsible.

Has anyone any thoughts on whether continuing to test positive on Day 11 should mean continued isolation? My understanding LFDs find viral protein which is likely to be infectious, so I should continue isolating. Would this also cause concern that should seek medical advice by this point?
I realise you did not get a full answer to your question. Not being a medical profession I can only give an opinion. Obviously your legal requirement to isolate goes on day 11. Morally I would say it would be right to avoid close contacts or crowded places/public transport until you can test negative. But I would not worry about going out for walks and even shopping for provisions (preferably with a decent mask) until you can test negative. Unless you are feeling particularly unwell I would not bother about medical advice.
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Old Feb 9, 2022, 10:40 am
  #9157  
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Originally Posted by DocWatson
Thanks DaveS I got my Covid passes back today, and whilst the temptation to go and sample all the pub's whiskies for medicinal purposes is there it doesn't feel overly responsible.

Has anyone any thoughts on whether continuing to test positive on Day 11 should mean continued isolation? My understanding LFDs find viral protein which is likely to be infectious, so I should continue isolating. Would this also cause concern that should seek medical advice by this point?
Commonsense tells me that you are probably infectious and should be isolating. For the reasons explained upthread, throat testing is probably the better test at the moment. In hindsight it would have been better for you to have been given antivirals earlier on, since laboured breathing at this stage is worrying me, however you are not in the age group to get them in normal circumstances. I would call your GP or 111. If the breathing makes reading a book out aloud in a distinct voice difficult after a minute or two, then it's 999. Back pain is a feature of laboured breathing in this context. On the other hand, keep calm and chilled out, it's easy to get a panic attack, which then causes a problem which doesn't actually exist.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/corona...ptoms-at-home/
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Old Feb 9, 2022, 11:22 am
  #9158  
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Originally Posted by DaveS
We have to be wary of a single days data. The bulk of the figure was from England and Tuesday is always high with the weekend backlog.
Originally Posted by alex67500
QED!
I've tried to find out what happened there, and the best I can come up with is to do with the booking system used by local authority registrars may have effectively brought forward a day's worth of cases in parts of South East England, which reported 53 cases into yesterday's data. Most reports are made in the afternoon and normally this pushes reporting over an extra day particularly if there is a high workload at the local authority. But when there is a reduction in the usual death rate, cases end up being reported a day sooner than normal.
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Old Feb 9, 2022, 11:37 am
  #9159  
 
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
Commonsense tells me that you are probably infectious and should be isolating. For the reasons explained upthread, throat testing is probably the better test at the moment. In hindsight it would have been better for you to have been given antivirals earlier on, since laboured breathing at this stage is worrying me, however you are not in the age group to get them in normal circumstances. I would call your GP or 111. If the breathing makes reading a book out aloud in a distinct voice difficult after a minute or two, then it's 999. Back pain is a feature of laboured breathing in this context. On the other hand, keep calm and chilled out, it's easy to get a panic attack, which then causes a problem which doesn't actually exist.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/corona...ptoms-at-home/
Thanks CWS. I'll speak to the GP tomorrow - it's not particularly bad and I've been working with calls much of the day and talking away and the symptoms keep changing - now it's a really deep breath that isn't 100% but general breathing is OK. It's become a head cold again. I had a pulse oximeter from the surgery as they offered on initial positive test and that's at the top end of healthy so I'm not overly worried. I'll speak to the GP tomorrow to see if they have any ideas. Based on throat samples I'd have left isolation on Day 5 so in some ways I'm glad I'm still isolating, for everyone else's sake, but good grief it's getting seriously dull.
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Old Feb 9, 2022, 11:59 am
  #9160  
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Originally Posted by DocWatson
Even with 3x Pfizer, in my early 30s, BMI slightly overweight, male, Covid isn't very pleasant. For me, it's lingering, with different symptoms each day, and test-to-release after 5 days was a distant dream. I have faint LFD lines after 8 days on my throat swabs and strong immediate ones on my nose swabs even now, I'm at the point where I don't know if I should stop self-isolating on Day 10 even though the guidance says to stop testing then.

My symptoms have gone:
Day 0 (mid-afternoon): headache and slight sore throat, assumed work stress was the cause. 2x negative LFDs, both nose as per instructions.
Day 1: Croaky voice, sore throat, occasional headache. Booked PCR. 2x negative LFDs, both nose as per instructions.
Day 2: Did PCR, same symptoms
Day 3: Positive PCR overnight. Continuing sore throat, some nasal/sinus congestion. Some fatigue. 1x positive LFD from throat swab, 1x negative LFD from nose.
Day 4: Symptoms easing, no Lemsip or Strepsils needed. Bored of isolation. 1x positive LFD from throat swab, 1x negative LFD from nose.
Day 5: Symptoms OK, light fatigue, occasional cough and sneeze. 1x negative LFD from throat swab, 1x positive LFD from nose with an immediate T-line before fluid hit the C line.
Day 6: Symptoms of a mild head cold and fatigue came back. 1x negative LFD from throat swab. 1x positive LFD from nose with strong line.
Day 7: Worse head cold symptoms, back on the Lemsip. Same tests as the last couple of days.
Day 8 (today): Head cold eased but breathing now about 5-10% more difficult and lower back pain appeared. 1x throat LFD faint positive, 1x positive LFD from nose still with a strong line.

For me, Day 10 will be the earliest release. The breathing being a bit tough today is concerning, as is the fact I've not shaken it off yet. Throughout this has been very much a mild illness, but a mild illness for 8 days and counting with the frustration of isolation really isn't fun.
This is quite interesting - apart from a slight amount of tiredness on the first couple of days, I’ve been completely asymptomatic unless you count a bit of a runny nose. But everything else about the later test type results aligns with my own experience.

At one point, sometime around day 6, I was actually testing negative on a throat plus nasal, but still strongly positive on a nasal only. I decided not to go out at that point just in case as it didn’t seem especially responsible. The negatives must only have been due to scraping insufficient material for the test, because at day 8 I’m down to the absolute faintest of lines on a throat + nasal, but something a little bit more prominent on a nasal only, but at least declining in intensity.

If I only do a throat swap, everything comes up negative, which is suppose is logical for Omicron given it’s an upper respiratory tract infection in the main.

Now given this confusion, I actually rang 119 to ask for advice and they were completely perplexed by the test results, to the extent they wanted to put a note on the system in case it ever got queried again. I was beginning to wonder if I was somehow unique, so I’m pleased there’s at least a couple of us!

Still, as I can’t go to watch any football tonight, I’ve decided that my recovery to date merits a bottle of beer given I’m not likely to be driving for another day or two . It’s certainly more pleasant than the old fashioned head over menthol crystals to clear anything hanging around my nasal passages I’ve been employing.

I hope you recover fully shortly.
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Old Feb 10, 2022, 6:42 am
  #9161  
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On throat I was negative much sooner but on nose, following how you're meant to do the test, I was positive until the morning of day 12.
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Old Feb 10, 2022, 9:13 am
  #9162  
 
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Daily data:

Cases 66,638 (88,171 last Thursday)
Deaths 206 (303)
Patients admitted 1,308 (1,398 on the 30th)
Patients in hospital 13,126 (14,884 on the 2nd)
Patients in ventilation beds 432 (483 on the 2nd)
Vaccinated up to and including 9 February 2022:
First dose: 52,468,730
Second dose: 48,666,801
Booster: 37,650,239

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 25.2% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 20.1%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 204.1 today. Scotland changed their case reporting today so that rapid tests are included. That has increased the Scottish cases figure by 3-4k. It was still not enough to counter the improvement in cases in England which fell by more than that continuing the downward trend.
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Old Feb 11, 2022, 2:24 am
  #9163  
 
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If one wanted to be super careful and isolate for a few days + take a test (even PCR) before seeing some vulnerable people, how much of a buffer would you leave? I was thinking 4-5 days plus test should do it.
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Old Feb 11, 2022, 3:49 am
  #9164  
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Originally Posted by ringingup
If one wanted to be super careful and isolate for a few days + take a test (even PCR) before seeing some vulnerable people, how much of a buffer would you leave? I was thinking 4-5 days plus test should do it.
We know of cases where people show positive on LFD at 24 hours from the one and only possible infection point (via care homes that are not accepting visitors). That is just about as fast as it gets, whereas 2 to 4 days after infection is more typical. Bear in mind if you are not testing posittive on LFD - using both throat and nose - the chances are that even if you are in the very earliest stages of infection then it's unlikely you can pass on the infection at that point, symptomatic cases give the highest transmission obviously. So let's consider this process:
Day1 = enter into self isolation - don't meet anyone from morning of day1
Day2 = first test (just because if this is positive you may as well abandon the attempt to meet the person concerned).
Day3 = maybe no test
Day4 = second test
Day5 = third test - and you haven't met a soul since day1.
And bear in mind in the UK at the moment perhaps 3% of the general population have COVID at the moment. If the first and second tests are negative then you are well below a 1 in a thousand chance of having COVID. By the third test it's a 1 in 10,000 chance or well lower than that, maybe another zero. Now I've made up those numbers, so they are not precise but demonstrate an approximate order of magnitude. Even day4, no symptoms and a bit of social distancing will give a high level of protection.
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Old Feb 11, 2022, 9:06 am
  #9165  
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Omicron watch - England stats

Last 7 days
Delta = 0.02%
Omicron BA.1 = 98.74%
Omicron BA.2 = 1.24%
and unusually no other variants, usually one or two creep in via travellers, but not in the last week.

However BA.2 is slow for us to sequence so it's probably understated - some of Omicron BA.1 will turn out to be BA.2. So if we use a PCR proxy analysis, rather than sequencing, then BA.2 is now about 18.7% of cases on 5 February, compared to 5% a fortnight previously. Over half the cases are in London and the South East and very little in the West Midlands and north of England. This is in the context of cases falling, but they are falling faster in the north of England and West Midlands. In other words, this may (repeat may) explain the steps in the graphs - a sharp fall at the end of January as BA.1 started to weaken, and now a second downward step with BA.2 weakening.

Some other snippets that have emerged. We haven't had a single case of anyone getting both BA.1 and BA.2, accepting that only travellers and NHS staff would get 2 PCRs in a short time period. Vaccines and anti virals are as effective on BA.2 as BA.1. Symptom onset for both BA.1 and 2 is now confirmed to be a lot faster - after first infection - compared to Delta. For Delta the mean was 4.02 days, BA.1 is 3.72 days and BA.2 is 3.27 days.

So the risk assessment has been updated for BA.2 and these are the top lines:
  • There is evidence of a growth advantage for BA.2 compared to BA.1 in more than one country
  • It is plausible that transmissibility and/or a shorter serial interval is contributing to the growth advantage
  • There is evidence of a small antigenic distance between BA.1 and BA.2 but no evidence of a difference in vaccine effectiveness in English data
  • Insufficient data for infection severity analysis.
My spin would be that BA.2 is a nuisance rather than a problem, compared to BA.1
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