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Old Oct 15, 2020, 6:45 pm
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Local lockdowns in the UK

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Old Feb 23, 2022, 9:33 am
  #9286  
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The psychological damage to some is going to be difficult to repair.
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 10:06 am
  #9287  
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Originally Posted by KARFA
Constantly restricting different areas when a few cases crop up, helped along by lots of surveillance. Governments abilities to restrict your way of life or close your business can be switched on at a moments notice. Rather than understanding that these are extraordinary powers which should only be in the gift of government and used during extraordinary times, it seems they should be normalised and part of everyday life.

What a wonderful future we can look forward to, it seems returning to normal was never the plan for some
You seem to be clearly unaware this is already the case for several diseases, and it has been for years. It is normal. As I said, hundreds of influenza outbreaks create temporary and localized measures every single year (test and trace, isolation, restricted access to the outbreak location). I have not seen you or anybody complained about those and scream about governmental surveillance and abuse. Those are so efficient and localized that most people never knew it exists.
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 10:20 am
  #9288  
 
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Originally Posted by nk15
The unvaccinated are a danger, they keep the pandemic going and are breeding ground for new variants. They are also increasing the risk and severity of transmission to the vaccinated. They drive health care costs up for everybody and will easily clog the hospitals in every spike of Covid, affecting everyone's health care.
My understanding is that the best breeding grounds for new variants are highly immunocompromised people, not unvaccinated healthy people. Isn't that where Beta, Delta, and Omicron came from? Also, a healthy unvaccinated 20 year-old is much less likely to "clog up" the health care system than a boosted 85 year old. This is silly.
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 10:23 am
  #9289  
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Originally Posted by fransknorge
You seem to be clearly unaware this is already the case for several diseases, and it has been for years. It is normal. As I said, hundreds of influenza outbreaks create temporary and localized measures every single year (test and trace, isolation, restricted access to the outbreak location). I have not seen you or anybody complained about those and scream about governmental surveillance and abuse. Those are so efficient and localized that most people never knew it exists.
In the uk people are isolated and there is restricted access to areas due to flu?
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 10:27 am
  #9290  
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Originally Posted by JNelson113
My understanding is that the best breeding grounds for new variants are highly immunocompromised people, not unvaccinated healthy people. Isn't that where Beta, Delta, and Omicron came from? Also, a healthy unvaccinated 20 year-old is much less likely to "clog up" the health care system than a boosted 85 year old. This is silly.
Anybody who gets the disease is a breeding ground, and the unvaccinated are more likely to get it and have longer and more symptomatic courses, which plays a role, I believe. You are also conflating age and vaccination status there, the argument is for the negative main effect of unvaccinated status regardless of other variables.
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 11:24 am
  #9291  
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Originally Posted by Silver Fox
The psychological damage to some is going to be difficult to repair.
Can we expect to see a constructive and non insulting post one day ?

Originally Posted by KARFA
In the uk people are isolated and there is restricted access to areas due to flu?
Yes, influenza affects mostly care homes so those can be closed during an outbreak with limitations of freedom for their patients.

Guidelines for PHE health protection teams on the management of outbreaks of influenza-like illness (ILI) in care homes
Ideally, symptomatic residents should be cared for in single rooms or cohorted into separate floors or wings of the care home.
(...)
Isolation for Influenza and respiratory viruses other than SARS-CoV-2 (suspected or confirmed) should be until a minimum of 5 days after the onset of symptoms (see appendix 2) and until feeling well.
(...)
The movement of symptomatic residents should also be minimised.
(...)
If staff members test negative for SARS-CoV-2 and have symptoms of or are confirmed as having influenza, they should remain off work for a minimum of 5 days after the onset of symptoms and until feeling well.
(...)
Once an outbreak of ARI is identified, closure of the home to new admissions should be considered.
https://assets.publishing.service.go...05_11_2020.pdf

Just randomly, here are the rules for Manchester for influenza and invasis Streptococcus. Notice several includes closure of the facility, contact tracing



https://democracy.manchester.gov.uk/...20document.pdf

Between week 40 of 2015 and week 17 of 2016, a total of 668 acute respiratory illness outbreaks in closed settings were reported in the UK to PHE compared to 662 in 2014 to 2015 and 112 in 2013 to 2014 (Table 1). 273 (40.9%) outbreaks occurred in schools, 236 (35.3%) in care homes, 116 (17.4%) in hospitals and 43 (6.4%) in other settings. This compares to 75% of outbreaks occurring in care homes in 2014 to 2015. By region, the most outbreaks (303, 45.8%) occurred in the South of England, followed by the Midlands and East of England region (183, 27.4%)(Figure 5).
https://assets.publishing.service.go..._2015_2016.pdf

236 outbreaks in care homes. Not all were closed to visitor but some where. And likely all had testing, restricting movement of people inside, visitor restrictions.
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 11:38 am
  #9292  
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This is so radically different to what you are suggesting that it’s not even remotely comparable.

Nor should the standard be restrictions are fine because few complain about them as you suggested, especially when you cite examples where historically plenty of issues have occurred because the people in homes are really unable to complain.
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 11:48 am
  #9293  
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Originally Posted by JNelson113
Also, a healthy unvaccinated 20 year-old is much less likely to "clog up" the health care system than a boosted 85 year old. This is silly.
Yes, at least in my Critical Care units, albeit typically 20-50 years olds. We've only got 3 people in at the moment (all unvaccinated) but when we had - a few weeks ago - 20, none of them were over 60 years old, when normally that's often the minimum age for critical care. I've made the point before that as soon as you put someone in a bay which has over £1 million of equipment tied down to it, there is a direct hit to the taxpayer of between £20,000 and £50,000 per new admission, even if they are only there a few hours. Sir Chris Whitty showed this slide up at the last Downing Street Briefing to get the point across, and to my mind we have spent several weeks under restrictions due to the selfish actions of around 4 million people. Thankfully we are at the stage where this less important, since there is no immediate danger of the healthcare system being overwhelmed.

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Old Feb 23, 2022, 11:54 am
  #9294  
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Originally Posted by KARFA
This is so radically different to what you are suggesting that it’s not even remotely comparable.

Nor should the standard be restrictions are fine because few complain about them as you suggested, especially when you cite examples where historically plenty of issues have occurred because the people in homes are really unable to complain.
This is not very different from what I propose: local and temporary extension of testing, trace and isolate. Nothing more. And this is effectively what is described as management for several other pathogens. And I notice you are focusing on one bullet point. What about the others ?
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 12:02 pm
  #9295  
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Originally Posted by fransknorge
Can we expect to see a constructive and non insulting post one day ?
Quite honestly, you wouldn't accept it if it walked up, slapped you around the face, and said "here I am" unless it fits in with your totalitarian state approach to life, and of course your narrative. So, yes, that post was exceptionally constructive and is borne out by any one of a number of studies into the mental health aspects of this.
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 12:42 pm
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Originally Posted by KARFA
What a wonderful future we can look forward to, it seems returning to normal was never the plan for some
The desire to return or go backwards is an odd one, no? Surely a better position is to reflect on what worked and what didn’t and make society better, particularly where they are relatively low impact changes that can achieve better societal outcomes and protect the vulnerable better?

Originally Posted by Silver Fox
The psychological damage to some is going to be difficult to repair.
Undoubtedly true. But the dead can’t be brought back to life and some of the long COVID impacts (scarring on the lungs for example) cannot be undone.

What about the cost of 9m people on NHS waiting lists? That will impact society for multiple generations.
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 12:51 pm
  #9297  
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Originally Posted by Kgmm77
The desire to return or go backwards is an odd one, no? Surely a better position is to reflect on what worked and what didn’t and make society better, particularly where they are relatively low impact changes that can achieve better societal outcomes and protect the vulnerable better?
And when did you stop beating your wife?

Yes when you come up with such a loaded question, how could anyone disagree? I mean I would have to be a monster to do so right?

You can’t possibly know all the consequences of what you propose, and it would be very naive to think that the only outcomes are positive.
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 1:04 pm
  #9298  
 
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Originally Posted by KARFA
And when did you stop beating your wife?

Yes when you come up with such a loaded question, how could anyone disagree? I mean I would have to be a monster to do so right?

You can’t possibly know all the consequences of what you propose, and it would be very naive to think that the only outcomes are positive.
Not a loaded question at all. And yes, there are pros and cons to every decision, but we take those kind of balanced decisions in public and private life every day. There is a clear opportunity in the public enquiry to take a open-minded look at what worked, what didn’t, both in the U.K. and elsewhere (recognising the U.K. outcomes on the face of it compare very poorly to peer countries).

But here’s the rub, you appear to have already decided from an ideological position that almost zero mandatory restrictions should ever be put in place again without even being open to looking for the evidence.
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 1:28 pm
  #9299  
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it’s clearly loaded since you only describe the results as leading to a better society. There is very little appreciation that restrictions do have costs both financial and otherwise. Also allowing governments perpetual powers should be balanced against impositions on freedoms.

Originally Posted by Kgmm77
But here’s the rub, you appear to have already decided from an ideological position that almost zero mandatory restrictions should ever be put in place again without even being open to looking for the evidence.
not at all. when we get another pandemic of course I would think something may be needed. However I do not think on balance any of the current restrictions should be continued due to the rapidly diminishing threat of covid. I also do not think imposing mandatory restrictions to things like flu is appropriate.
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Old Feb 23, 2022, 1:51 pm
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Originally Posted by KARFA
it’s clearly loaded since you only describe the results as leading to a better society. There is very little appreciation that restrictions do have costs both financial and otherwise. Also allowing governments perpetual powers should be balanced against impositions on freedoms.
I think the aim should absolutely be to get societal improvement. As for the cost of restrictions, I’ve continually said that there are costs, I’m not sure where you’re getting the view that I haven’t? But there needs to be an attempt to try to measure them.
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