The first question is genuinely difficult to predict. Omicron is very different to Delta, and unlike Alpha doesn't seem to affect the lower respiratory channels or lungs. So that makes it more likely to continue to decline. The current rate of decline is baked in for a few more days, then personally I expect any declines to be more moderate. So I think we should get to 500 cases per 100lk reasonably quickly, which is well above the numbers you suggested above. Those numbers were the post Alpha, pre Delta numbers, however.

As for the next stages, it turns out we will know tomorrow. The decision point, the O sub committee is being brought forward, and though there is some news management going on at the moment for tomorrow's newspapers ("finely balanced decision", yeah right), I can't see it being anything less than the Scottish changes. Maybe 2 stages - most restrictions abandoned tomorrow, and moving entirely to guidelines in a month perhaps - no statutory restrictions at all.

Had a feeling Boris might throw in that swerve with masks, to rewrite some headlines. Good stuff.

Is it true we still don’t count reinfections? I know a lot of people who have caught it twice now, wouldn’t it mean our numbers are massively understated?

Finally, what is going on with France? Still rising, almost 500k cases/d

All COVID rules except for self isolation gone, that will be allowed to expire March 24 I believe.
So now what about travel? I guess Mr. Shapps announces bye bye day 2 tests? Got the expense down to 12 GBP per test now, but still would be great if they were gone.

I'd be keen to know as well if these tests will go - it will be good because more than anything now they are annoying and just another clearly unrequired barrier for travel.

The UK tests are bearable and can be had for £8.95 a go. We need other countries to follow suit with easier testing rules. Asking for PCR's no more than 48 hours before arrival is a real problem on a long haul.

I’d phrase it in a slightly different way. In order to get rid of pre-flight testing, what you are really saying is that authorities need to get comfortable with passengers travelling whilst infected. Given where we’re at with omicron, that doesn’t seem an insurmountable challenge given other potential mitigants. What is utterly moronic however is utterances like Lord Frost’s earlier today, who not only wants to see an end to all restrictions, he wants a guarantee that they will be permanently withdrawn. Clearly he’s adopting the same approach to the pandemic that he did with Brexit negotiations, if you really want something go for it and worry about the consequces later, you can always blame someone else.

Or to stop quarentine and travel restrictions. Is there a single good reason as to why Australia would keep their borders closed?

Test being bearable doesn't mean they should remain, particularly when there is no need for them.

Regarding other countries, I agree with you, however, I'd say we need consistent guidelines/rules across as many countries as possible instead of literally different rules for every single country. Airlines have been screaming for this for the better part of the last 18 months, and we still find ourselves in a world where apart from regular entry rules/visas etc, you need to navigate Covid rules for every single place you travel to and transit through.

This is what was said about travel testing today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-60046073

I appreciate the desire for international consistency, but frankly that’s never going to happen. Countries have different visa and immigration requirements and always have done. Australia sprays stuff in the cabin when you land and gets excited about mud on your golf shoes and a stray apple you robbed from the lounge…. Etc. Even from a health perspective, different countries had requirements on yellow fever certs. I hope travel is going to get progressively easier, but I don’t expect it to be in any way consistent.

Daily data:

Cases 108,069 (129,587 last Wednesday)
Deaths 359 (398)
Patients admitted 1,752 (2,066 on the 8th)
Patients in hospital 18,979 (19,815 on the 11th)
Patients in ventilation beds 703 (793 on the 11th)
People vaccinated up to and including 18 January 2022:
First dose: 52,151,643
Second dose: 48,019,069
Booster: 36,621,671

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 37.2% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 8.2%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 266.4 today.

I think you're right. If we look around, even the EU countries don't have a consistent arrangement/agreement on this, which is just disappointing. It's a shame though because it seems travel may be complicated for some time to come.....

I’ll be happy if it gets less complicated, more predictable and if the price for that is mask wearing and sporadic testing then so be it. I do worry that large swathes of Asia have no apparently exit strategy even in the medium term, given their zero COVID policies combined with relatively low vaccination rates.

What happened, did you just declare the end of the pandemic already over there? No more "hands, face, just party at Boris' place" all day every day from now on? :p

So, are you going to stabilize at 50k-100k new cases a day every day from now on, no measures of any kind, and that will be the new normal?

If you drop all measures, will you even sustain 50k new cases per day, or will it go back up to >100k+?

Why is France rising so much, did they not get the memo that we are not doing the Covid thing anymore? :p

Bit difficult to suggest there are no measures when we have just rolled out a massive booster program which has be very well taken up, and have new anti virals being rolled out.

It will go well below that. And if the vast majority of people are not turning up in hospital does it really matter? Omicron was a potential threat to the road back to normal but clearly hasn't been anywhere near as much of a problem as feared.

What would your plan be? And if you are suggesting continued restrictions and what do you think the disadvantages and costs would be for them?

I think some folks don't seem to understand what the end game was going to be, that this would just become endemic, and just want to impose restrictions forever.

Still dealing with delta as well as omicron. Despite the protests of some, the UK deliberately relaxed restrictions in July last year precisely to avoid a delta exit wave coinciding with seasonal winter illnesses. Clearly shows that keeping restrictions for longer than necessary can often lead to worse outcomes and more deaths than relaxing them.