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-   -   Local lockdowns in the UK (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/u-k-ireland/2025295-local-lockdowns-uk.html)

KARFA Jan 21, 2022 3:09 am

Well I respect you honestly hold that view and have reasons you have mentioned. However I think you need to be very careful in thinking that the only consequences of such a change in behaviour are those you have mentioned and nothing else.

There is plenty of evidence for example to suggest regular exposure to run of the mill colds and flus is actually helpful in ensuring a healthy immune system, and there are other problems I have mentioned. It is therefore not beyond reasonable to think that going for this isolation type approach might lead to worse outcomes in the future. I am sure there are also many other things it could lead to which I can’t even begin to imagine.

Scots_Al Jan 21, 2022 3:14 am

I think for me it comes down to a question of 'would I want to sit next to me the way I am today?'.

fransknorge Jan 21, 2022 5:01 am


Originally Posted by KARFA (Post 33921839)
Well I respect you honestly hold that view and have reasons you have mentioned. However I think you need to be very careful in thinking that the only consequences of such a change in behaviour are those you have mentioned and nothing else.

There is plenty of evidence for example to suggest regular exposure to run of the mill colds and flus is actually helpful in ensuring a healthy immune system, and there are other problems I have mentioned. It is therefore not beyond reasonable to think that going for this isolation type approach might lead to worse outcomes in the future. I am sure there are also many other things it could lead to which I can’t even begin to imagine.

(Emphasis mine)
Not so much, those are old remnants of eugenics from the 19th century. Every action of your life stimulates your immune system (eating, washing your teeth, drinking, going out) simply because your body (externally and internally) is constantly invaded by pathogens and externals agents. All the time. There are no need to be sick to stimulate it.
Exception applies if you have bone marrow cancer and live in a sterile bubble in a specialized institution and for new born who would spend the first 10 months of their life fully isolated.

corporate-wage-slave Jan 21, 2022 5:18 am

Omicron update for the UK, last data input was 19 January, and with a week of data, about 250,000 samples and excluding historical corrections (mainly removing a heap of previous but recent Alpha cases which were actually Omicron)

Omicron 99.3%
Delta 0.3%
VUI-21OCT-01 0.3%
Others including Alpha 0.1%


Variant Under Investigation for 21 October is also known as AY.4.2 or Delta Plus, which popped up at the latter stages of the Delta surge, in November, and then got swamped by Omicron. The Plus bit is misleading, it wasn't more worrying than Delta itself, and seems to just be a random mutation.

13901 Jan 21, 2022 6:57 am


Originally Posted by Scots_Al (Post 33920888)
No, I think there's a middle ground, where you are coughing, spluttering and generally not pleasant to be around, but actually not impaired to any significant degree.

This used to be the symphony aired on every Tube carriage from October to April effectively.

13901 Jan 21, 2022 7:41 am


Two thirds of Covid patients in London NHS trust admitted for another reason

up to two-thirds of Covid patients at one of the country’s biggest NHS trusts during the Omicron wave were admitted for reasons other than the virus, it has emerged.The startling revelation from Barts Health gives a new perspective on the hospitalisation data that has been a key factor in determining the Government response to the pandemic.
Two thirds of Covid patients in London NHS trust admitted for another reason | Evening Standard

DaveS Jan 21, 2022 9:07 am

Daily data:

Cases 95,787 (99,652 last Friday)
Deaths 288 (270)
Patients admitted 1,974 (2,429 on the 10th)
Patients in hospital 17,976 (19,598 on the 13th)
Patients in ventilation beds 664 (777 on the 13th)
People vaccinated up to and including 19 January 2022:
First dose: 52,186,398
Second dose: 48,082,636
Booster: 36,753,644

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 27.3% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 0.5%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 268.3 today.

Silver Fox Jan 21, 2022 9:15 am


Originally Posted by Misco60 (Post 33921682)
Most pre-existing conditions are not the fault of the individual but rather chronic conditions such as asthma, diabetes, cystic fibrosis, Down syndrome and dementia. Many are a natural consequence of getting older. Most people who died with a comorbidity would still be alive today were it not for covid, and trying to differentiate between the "innocent" victims of covid-19 and those with comorbidity "sob stories" is unhelpful and heartless.

I'll highlight the bit you obviously missed "perhaps use it as a "warning" to people that could actually do something about their overall health"

Silver Fox Jan 21, 2022 9:17 am


Originally Posted by Kgmm77 (Post 33921726)
Given you have consistently opposed pretty much every Covid mitigation other than vaccination, then I suspect our “learnings” may be very different.

I suspect they are very different. But that's fine isn't it?

IAN-UK Jan 21, 2022 10:47 am


Originally Posted by KARFA (Post 33921839)
There is plenty of evidence for example to suggest regular exposure to run of the mill colds and flus is actually helpful in ensuring a healthy immune system..

I'm not sure there's evidence that infections improve a generalised immune response.

You might be conflating Strachan's hygiene hypothesis, which focussed on links between childhood exposure to pathogens and later incidences of allergies, and the observations of immunisation achieved through infection that triggered Jenner's development of the science around vaccination.

While a degree of immunity can certainly be achieved through infection, that protection can be short-lived and very specific to the nature and configuration of the pathogen. Which is why we get colds and (maybe) flu every year, and why we might need to tweak covid vaccines to match the challenges of virus mutations.

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger might have worked for Nietzsche, but it's not a philosophy physicians generally accept.

KARFA Jan 21, 2022 10:55 am


Originally Posted by IAN-UK (Post 33922881)
I'm not sure there's evidence that infections improve a generalised immune response.

You are not sure being infected with a virus and recovering means you have any immune response beyond that exact specific strain of virus? That is certainly an interesting little thesis :)

IAN-UK Jan 21, 2022 12:14 pm


Originally Posted by KARFA (Post 33922917)
You are not sure being infected with a virus and recovering means you have any immune response beyond that exact specific strain of virus? That is certainly an interesting little thesis :)

I'm certain that recovery from a viral infection can promote a level of immunisation against the pathogen that caused the infection. That's the science behind vaccines.

But the idea that infection "insures a healthy immune system" is, well, difficult to support. Indeed, there's evidence that some infections trigger auto-immune responses.


The notion that the walking wounded, those who stay away from work because of colds and flu but feel well enough to work from home, should be in the office boosting the immune systems of colleagues is one you might find even more difficult to support.

corporate-wage-slave Jan 21, 2022 1:02 pm


Originally Posted by KARFA (Post 33922917)
You are not sure being infected with a virus and recovering means you have any immune response beyond that exact specific strain of virus? That is certainly an interesting little thesis :)

We still don't know a lot about how this works with COVID-19, other than that clearly some people can get reinfections even if vaccinated, more so if unvaccinated. At the moment around 10 to 15% of current infections are reinfections, typically they had Alpha or vanilla COVID, a few have had Delta then Omicron. I know some people are touting natural immunity, usually for unscientific reasons, but the evidence, if anything, the data points against this since people who are unvaccinated are twice as likely to be reinfected than those on two recent vaccines. Boosters will make that a stronger case. Source: ONS. Therefore if this was an epidemic without special measures, and people were going into the office with mild COVID, the situation would be a lot worse. We also know that people can and do get influenza and other respriratory diseases year after year, so immunity for that viral complex is either very targeted or fairly short in duration, and probably a mix of both. For influenza these extra-prone people tend to be best off getting the vaccine and taking preventative measures rather than thinking "it if I get it then it will make me stronger" - typically it's a neutral or negative effect.

T cells are the complex bit to this. So T cells can mount a immunity defence against respiratory diseases but it can be inefficient, slow and/or still makes it a highly unpleasant experience. Plus we don't know a lot about T cell response and COVID (or many other immune response scenarios for that matter). This is the nearest we can get to supporting a natural immunity argument, and it's flimsy science at the moment.

The upshot - and sheer commonsense says - that there is no obvious advantage in being ill, and considerable advantages in trying not to be ill. Now I say all of that, while still believing that we must not let our lives be over-dominated by just one virus, and I'm optimistic that we can get back to a more normal situation in the weeks ahead. However we better learn from our experiences or we will be condemned to repeating it.

plunet Jan 21, 2022 3:38 pm


Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave (Post 33923335)
​​​At the moment around 10 to 15% of current infections are reinfections, typically they had Alpha or vanilla COVID, a few have had Delta then Omicron.

I am aware that there is some evidence cropping up of NHS staff are getting infected with Omicron twice. One hospital I have insights into has had a significant outbreak of COVID in staff on a particular ward several times since Omicron arrived, and there have been multiple instances of staff testing positive twice with the typical "mild" Omicron symptoms, and I understand for some individuals that their PCR tests have confirmed a double Omicron infection.

Whilst the NHS staffing situation is considerably better than it was a few weeks ago it's still very far from anything resembling good, and wards are being shut down or bed capacity restricted from time to time.

corporate-wage-slave Jan 21, 2022 3:47 pm


Originally Posted by plunet (Post 33923776)
I am aware that there is some evidence cropping up of NHS staff are getting infected with Omicron twice. One hospital I have insights into has had a significant outbreak of COVID in staff on a particular ward several times since Omicron arrived, and there have been multiple instances of staff testing positive twice with the typical "mild" Omicron symptoms, and I understand for some individuals that their PCR tests have confirmed a double Omicron infection.

This is a somewhat fraught area. NHS staff would be different, but generally speaking people cannot have 2 PCRs within 90 days, and therefore not have their tests double sequenced within that time frame. There are a number of reasons for this but the starting point is that generally speaking we don't think people can get COVID twice in 90 days, plus the risk of dead viral particles from an old infection,, so we aren't going to be using resources to test for it. So yes I have heard that some PCRs are showing two Omicron infections for the same person, these would come from the small section of the community that would have access to PCRs within 90 days, notably NHS staff and travellers. Up to now we would say "it's the same infection", whereas I suspect the people concerned would say "oh no it's not, it's a second infection". It's one of those times where there isn't a neat easy answer I can give at this point. Hopefully we will know more when, um, we know more.


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