Originally Posted by fransknorge
(Post 33831878)
Never said Denmark was evidence either. I said there might be less confounding variable (note the might) and it might have more weight due to that.
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Daily data:
Cases 90,629 (59,610 last Tuesday) Deaths 172 (150) Patients admitted 847 (793 on the 10th) Patients in hospital 7,801 (7,695 on the 13th) Patients in ventilation beds 859 (900 on the 13th) People vaccinated up to and including 20 December 2021: First dose: 51,537,827 Second dose: 47,102,814 Booster: 29,876,223 The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 63.1% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 0.9%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 115.4 today. |
Originally Posted by KARFA
(Post 33831885)
that wasn’t really my point - but you seem desperate to dismiss a months worth of data from South Africa.
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
(Post 33831860)
Plus the problem is that core civic services may not be sustainable if case numbers rocket.
If Omicron’s really milder than the previous versions… If, when one is vaccinated and boosted, the infection is mild (“flu-like”)… …then this could lead us to the first step in “normalising” Covid and, dare I say it, live with it. Much like, back in the day, people still came to work with the sniffles (unless it was the near-death experience known as man flu) then we might be doing the same for Covid. I might be jumping the gun by a lot, here, and I’m not for a moment suggesting we ought to start going to work when positive now. Or in a month. But, eventually, at some point, we will need to. Because there’s way too many mor… idio… cret… ehm free-spirited people who will reject the vaccination and this thing will continue doing the rounds. |
Thought I'd report on my reactiion as others have done, to my booster.
Female, mid 50's, 2 AZ, last one in mid June. Yesterday Moderna. 18 hours later, (during the night) got the shivers and sore heavy arm, and felt floored today, slight fever, aches, tiredness etc. Actually had to go to bed! AZ gave me a headache but haven't experienced any significant headache with Moderna. Booster is already showing on the NHS pass. |
I think the Prime Minister’s announcement of no further restrictions before Christmas is his second big COVID gamble of the year. His first, opening up in July, appeared to be paying off handsomely before Omicron hit. This new gamble might also pay off though, as with the first, I’m not terribly optimistic. We still still know too little about pathogenicity in the UK or what the breakdown of hospitalisation is between triply, doubly, singly and not vaccinated.
I’m not too concerned about the none vaccinated, especially the outright refuseniks. If they do end up in ICU, the best we can do is treat them as humanely as resources permit. If fully vaccinated people are turning up in ICU in numbers, while clinical staff are reducing in numbers for the same reason, then I think we have a problem, a lockdown, and probably the end of the current Prime Minister* and all the unknowns that go with it. * Can’t stand the man myself but I’m very careful with what I wish for. |
Originally Posted by Internaut
(Post 33832194)
If fully vaccinated people are turning up in ICU in numbers, while clinical staff are reducing in numbers for the same reason, then I think we have a problem, a lockdown, and probably the end of the current Prime Minister* and all the unknowns that go with it.
* Can’t stand the man myself but I’m very careful with what I wish for. |
Many governments seem reluctant to put too many restrictions on Christmas, it is a concession they make, but after the 27th it will be a different story, after anxiety and reality start setting in...
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Originally Posted by nk15
(Post 33832385)
Many governments seem reluctant to put too many restrictions on Christmas, it is a concession they make, but after the 27th it will be a different story, after anxiety and reality start setting in...
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Originally Posted by lhrsfo
(Post 33831244)
By the feel of central London currently, I will be fascinated to see how the numbers go in a few days time. The streets are very empty, the restaurants are empty, the pubs are either closed or empty. People are being cautious. If that doesn't significantly slow the spread, then we might as well just give up on that tack and let it rip.
Whereas, from what I understand from more rural friends, there's still the attitude that it's a city problem and it won't have any effect on their socialising plans (at least until they actually get it, and then their attitude changes. |
Originally Posted by DaveS
(Post 33832462)
We will have more data available by then. What happens at that point will depend on what happens in the next few days. I do note that it has taken us two weeks to move from an average of 48,000 cases per day to the current 88,000. It is hard to reconcile this with the predictions of doubling cases every 2.5 or 2 days. If the stats continue to look not too bad then it will he tough justifying restrictions to the hesitant ministers and MP's.
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Originally Posted by DaveS
(Post 33832462)
We will have more data available by then. What happens at that point will depend on what happens in the next few days. I do note that it has taken us two weeks to move from an average of 48,000 cases per day to the current 88,000. It is hard to reconcile this with the predictions of doubling cases every 2.5 or 2 days. If the stats continue to look not too bad then it will he tough justifying restrictions to the hesitant ministers and MP's.
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Originally Posted by Dan1113
(Post 33832627)
I also think there will be a certain percentage of people who would rather suffer through it (or simply be blissfully unaware) and spread it than isolate over Christmas, compared to a normal week when you get 10 days off work in their eyes. So I imagine this leads to fewer tests, particularly in people doing asymptotic lateral flow ones.
But it is a fact that the picture is quite varied throughout the UK that it's actually quite difficult to use UK stats to get a feel for this For example in the North East, Omicron isn't much established yet, most cases are Delta and in many places case rates are fallling. So that is dampening down the rise in London, which Omicron is now dominant, vaccinations are the lowest in the UK. But yes, even within Omicron I think my original post suggesting a 3 to 5 day doubling period is probably more accurate than 2 day doubling. And there is always a ceiling, what goes up will come down. |
Originally Posted by Dan1113
(Post 33832627)
I also think there will be a certain percentage of people who would rather suffer through it (or simply be blissfully unaware) and spread it than isolate over Christmas, compared to a normal week when you get 10 days off work in their eyes. So I imagine this leads to fewer tests, particularly in people doing asymptotic lateral flow ones.
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Breaking.. Manchester Evening News reports self isolation period reduced from ten days to seven. This could be a game changer in terms of hospital staff availability (my big concern with Omicron).
In other news.., My sister took a lateral flow a few hours ago; positive. Once PCR confirmation comes through, she will be taking considerable pleasure filling in test and trace with all the maskless morons she has to work with closely at a further education college. |
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