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True about the lower rate of vaccination, but the rate of past infection is higher than in the UK. In Gauteng there is 73% of the population with antibodies (past infection and/or vaccine). This makes less of a strong contrast to the UK level of protection (93% of people with antibodies).
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Only 73%? I believe the latest ONS estimated figure for the UK is around 90-95% in terms of adults with antibodies.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...hts/antibodies EDIT: apologies I see you noted that. certainly still plenty of reason to be very optimistic |
Originally Posted by DaveS
(Post 33807893)
It has not been said whether the death was a result of infection from the virus or another cause. It will be counted as a death from the virus in the statistics, but that does not mean it was caused by the virus.
The only reason I even mentioned the death, which in itself means very little, was that ahmetdouas claimed that there was no need for any further restrictions because no-one has yet died of Omicron. |
Daily data:
Cases 54,661 (51,459 last Monday) Deaths 38 (41) Patients admitted 926 (809 on the 30th) Patients in hospital 7,372 (7,288 on the 3rd) Patients in ventilation beds 901 (900 on the 3rd) People vaccinated up to and including 12 December 2021: First dose: 51,279,167 Second dose: 46,775,202 Booster: 23,561,729 The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 9.9% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 0.6%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 118.7 today. Tests yesterday reached 1,259,313. |
Scottish FM will make televised address to the nation tomorrow night following earlier parliamentary statement.
Not a good sign. |
Originally Posted by KARFA
(Post 33807923)
There is plenty of evidence of the death rate from omicron already from south africa which has been and continues to be lower than the UK since October, and well beyond the point omicron has become dominant there - and that is with much lower rates of vaccination and therefore protection than we have in the UK.
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Thanks for this table.
I have no idea where he got his information from (I am guessing UKHSA, but where they got it from ?) but Javid just says, very confidently during a briefing, that UK has 200 000 Omicron cases a day and it is expected to be the majority variant in London by Wednesday (??). |
Originally Posted by fransknorge
(Post 33808558)
Thanks for this table.
I have no idea where he got his information from (I am guessing UKHSA, but where they got it from ?) but Javid just says, very confidently during a briefing, that UK has 200 000 Omicron cases a day and it is expected to be the majority variant in London by Wednesday (??). However, Javid also explicitly said in the Commons last week there would be 1 million infections a day (yes he said per day) so clearly his grip on the numbers is not great. EDIT: so apparently he said current number of daily infections are around 200,000, so perhaps assuming only 1 in 4 are actually tested? If that's true then it puts daily hospitalisations in to even starker terms since only about 700-900 daily admissions occur which suggests your chance of needing to go to hospital if you get covid currently is around 0.45% (presumably that figure is more weighted towards non jabbed than jabbed, so jabbed would be even lower). He said Omicron will become the dominant variant in London in the next 48 hours and represents 20% of cases in England. Frankly this doesn't even seem possible or believable - at that rate everyone in London will have had it by the end of next week! |
For those who want/need to fly, Amazon are going to start selling PCR tests for £35.00, using their own existing lab in Salford (currently used for screening their employees).
https://www.theguardian.com/business...-uk-travellers |
I'm not sure what it costs Amazon to procure and process these tests but I'm not sure offering postal tests for £34.99 is anything special or innovative, especially from the price point of view.
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Originally Posted by KARFA
(Post 33808591)
No idea. Total cases to date are 4,713, UKHSA claims there are actually 20 times more infections than officially detected, and you still can't get to that figure using that.
However, Javid also explicitly said in the Commons last week there would be 1 million infections a day (yes he said per day) so clearly his grip on the numbers is not great. EDIT: so apparently he said current number of daily infections are around 200,000, so perhaps assuming only 1 in 4 are actually tested? If that's true then it puts daily hospitalisations in to even starker terms since only about 700-900 daily admissions occur which suggests your chance of needing to go to hospital if you get covid currently is around 0.45% (presumably that figure is more non jabbed than jabbed, so jabbed would be even lower). He said Omicron will become the dominant variant in London in the next 48 hours and represents 20% of cases in England. Frankly this doesn't even seem possible or believable - at that rate everyone in London will have had it by the end of next week! |
Originally Posted by Schwann
(Post 33808676)
I'm not sure what it costs Amazon to procure and process these tests but I'm not sure offering postal tests for £34.99 is anything special or innovative, especially from the price point of view.
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Originally Posted by KARFA
(Post 33808591)
No idea. Total cases to date are 4,713, UKHSA claims there are actually 20 times more infections than officially detected, and you still can't get to that figure using that.
However, Javid also explicitly said in the Commons last week there would be 1 million infections a day (yes he said per day) so clearly his grip on the numbers is not great. EDIT: so apparently he said current number of daily infections are around 200,000, so perhaps assuming only 1 in 4 are actually tested? If that's true then it puts daily hospitalisations in to even starker terms since only about 700-900 daily admissions occur which suggests your chance of needing to go to hospital if you get covid currently is around 0.45% (presumably that figure is more weighted towards non jabbed than jabbed, so jabbed would be even lower). He said Omicron will become the dominant variant in London in the next 48 hours and represents 20% of cases in England. Frankly this doesn't even seem possible or believable - at that rate everyone in London will have had it by the end of next week! |
The Telegraph has an article on the situation in South Africa. The two things suggested in the article are that the omicron outbreak in SA may already be 'running out of steam' and that the case fatality rate is 6 times lower (3% vs 0.5%) compared with delta.
Omicron outbreaks in South African hotspots may be running out of steam less than three weeks after the new variant was identified, data suggests. Cases in the province of Gauteng – which had surging infections from November – appear to be levelling off, while seven-day infections in Tshwane, one of the early epicentres, are now "relatively flat". Louis Rossouw, of the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group in South Africa, said that although the country had surpassed the peak of previous waves some areas were beginning to see a lull. "Case growth is steeper than last week but still has slowed down versus November," he said. "In Gauteng, cases are still levelling off. Tshwane cases are relatively flat, with a slight increase in the most recent days." Statisticians in South Africa have also noted that the case fatality rate – the percentage of people who go on to die from an infection – has fallen considerably since the arrival of omicron. With the delta variant, around three per cent of infections – one in 33 – were resulting in death, but now that figure has slumped to 0.5 per cent – one in 200 – the lowest it has been throughout the pandemic in South Africa and 10 times lower than in September last year. Some experts claim there has not been enough time for the death data to catch up with infections and that the case fatality rate will rise in coming weeks as infections start to translate into hospitalisations and deaths. But Peter Streicher, a research associate at the University of Johannesburg, pointed out that the infection to death lag in South Africa is just 10 days because most cases are only picked up once they arrive in hospital, when many are already severe. It means omicron should have been visible in the death data by now. "The case fatality rate was consistently at three per cent until late November, mostly delta deaths," he said. "If the case fatality rate remained at three per cent, we would have seen 200 deaths per day by now. We are seeing around 21 deaths per day currently, of which eight are probably still delta deaths. Paywalled of course. |
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