All models are wrong. But some are more useful than others…… Quote: Modelling 101

So my data point of uploading to the United TRC was this: the UK end took hours. I just uploaded my certificate to the TRC for the return to LHR, I pressed upload and thought "I'll get a coffee" and just as I was getting out the chair my phone vibrated and the results were approved. If it was more than 5 seconds from "submit" to "vibrate" I'd be surprised and I think I am over-estimating!

Strange. My experience was the opposite. Uploaded at the UK end, got an email overnight saying all good, checked in online, got the green flash on my bp and did not need to see anyone until the usual process at the gate.

But in SF, uploading documents didn’t make a blind bit of difference, online check in wasn’t permitted and it had to be done at the gate.

Daily data:

Cases 54,073 (42,848 last Saturday)
Deaths 132 (127)
People vaccinated up to and including 10 December 2021:
First dose: 51,229,132
Second dose: 46,705,196
Booster: 22,594,743

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 12.6% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 1.1%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 119.4 today. The 7 day average for cases is now above 50,000 per day for the first time since early January. We are doing about double the number of daily tests compared with January though.

I can add some context here, my partner works for two different NHS Trusts, and one of the additional duties they take on on their days off is the internal-to-the-trust track and trace service. As mentioned bycorporate-wage-slave earlier healthcare workers have an enhanced risk assessment and track and trace system because they need to interact with vulnerable patients. The list of frontline staff who are currently off with COVID or isolating because they had a high risk exposure is stark, and this is in addition to the usual winter illness. I can't be certain but it would have to be well into double digit percentages, and this is fairly typical based on comments from their peer T&T teams in other trusts.

The situation is already difficult, many beds taken up with patients who have COVID, and because of the PPE requirements to keep staff safe looking after these patients is draining. On top of this there is the usual winter pressure and trying to catch up with backlogged elective procedures. Oh and jabbing the boosters.

The real risk is that with much uptick of COVID cases from current levels the healthcare service will have to start to rationing service, something that no healthcare service or professional wants to do. You may have a COVID-unrelated urgent healthcare issue in January that requires A&E and or an emergency admission, and you should expect to get the usual quality of NHS care, but there is a considerable risk that can't provide it, and the constraint will probably be staff shortages although beds won't be far behind.

Last January, so many levers were pulled to create capacity for hospitals for COVID, we were in lockdown and not moving around and having accidents, many of those levers cannot be pulled in the same way to provide capacity. You might not think you will get COVID and you are fit and healthy, but would it be responsible of the government to proceed on the basis that the healthcare system will become dangerously overloaded and may not be available if you need it later this winter.

I know it's the BBC, but it looks like you may be right:

Covid in Scotland: More rules could come next week, says Swinney

Are you able to note where you see a specific positivity rate for Gauteng please on that page? I can see number of positivise by state but not tests done by state.

Looking further at the nicd site you link to, some more country wide figures which are more up to date. Testing is being ramped up, positivity rate is falling, daily cases are falling.

8 Dec
73,911 tests
19,842 positives
26.8% positivity rate

9 Dec
75,251 tests
22,391 positives
29.8% positivity rate

10 Dec
83,515 tests
19,018 positives
22.8% positivity rate

11 Dec
104,831 tests
17,154 positives
16.3% positivity rate

The 7-day average is 24.4% , which is lower than yesterday at 25.5%.

EDIT: out of interest, case number increases in Gauteng and the whole of the country (bearing in mind the models that have been cited here as a reason for restrictions all assume case doubling every 2/3 days)

5 Dec - Gauteng 7,929, South Africa 11,125
6 Dec - Gauteng 4,488, South Africa 6,381
7 Dec - Gauteng 8,445, South Africa 13,147
8 Dec - Gauteng 11,703, South Africa 19,842
9 Dec - Gauteng 11,791, South Africa 22,391
10 Dec - Gauteng 9,250, South Africa 19,018
11 Dec - Gauteng 8,521, South Africa 17,154

Now as you say testing capacity can limit this and not everyone comes forward for tests when ill, but there seem to be a huge number of cases being missed if this really is doubling every 2/3 days, and the increases in capacity over the last few days should have started to catch those missing cases if they exist. Omicron is dominant already in South Africa and has been for at least a week, and some have suggested since mid November, so any changes in case numbers should be driven primarily by that variant.

Apologies, I put the wrong link, this page does not give positivity rate per province.
Here are the numbers I got for Gauteng only:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGHQPs5X...name=4096x4096

https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1468684427421179904?s=20

On that subject, this is a message published today by Chris Hopson, CEO of NHS Providers, which is putting things back in proper context and highlight that just looking at COVID care in hospitals does not give an accurate measure of how much the NHS is under strain. And that must be taken into account in the decision making and risk assessment process.

Full text here
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...520387585.html

No longer about deaths, instead it is about whether the NHS is under pressure.

I look forward to hearing about an accounting for all the negatives and problems resulting from the restrictions now being brought in, the damage being inflicted on peoples lives and livelihoods, on businesses and jobs, the financial costs being incurred and downward pressure on the economy which we need to pay for public services etc. etc. This is not a one sided debate despite how it is constantly being presented.

A point Nicola Sturgeon was keen to make the other day was that not acting also has a detrimental impact on the economy as people come down with it and staff go off work / isolate. The example she gave from Friday when she was speaking was that there were 60 Scotrail services cancelled that day as a direct result of staff in isolation.

Clearly shutting down entirely has a worse effect, but I think she made a not unreasonable point, and as you say these things should be looked at holistically - very little is a straight trade-off of NHS v economy.

Unfortunately a consequence of the enhanced self isolation rules in Scotland:

https://www.scotsman.com/health/coro...solate-3491467

Well partly, no doubt, but if people weren't required to isolate, then more people would contract the virus, and more people would be off work. Point still being that it's not as simple as saying NHS v economy in any decision.

No those are very complex and yes, it needs an holistic view. But I always feel the health vs economy is a false dichotomy. It is health and economy together.

England only: The need for all contacts of Omicron cases to self isolate for 10 days is being modified from Tuesday (and unofficially has already started). So if vaccinated - for all cases not just Omicron - there will be a requirement to do Lateral Flow tests, available free of charge, for 7 days. If a LFD comes up positive, or symptoms develop, then that triggers a PCR test and the need to self isolate until the result is clear. If that PCR is negative then the self isolation ends, but any time on the 7 days resumes, so more lateral flow testing every day. If you are unvaccinated then you need to self isolate for 10 days regardless. There is a travel implication since until Tuesday (and probably unofficially already) there was a risk that an Omicron case would force everyone on an aircraft to self isolate for 10 days regardless of vaccination or test resutl - that risk has now been modified.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/d...ches-this-week