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-   -   Local lockdowns in the UK (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/u-k-ireland/2025295-local-lockdowns-uk.html)

ahmetdouas Jul 4, 2021 2:56 am


Originally Posted by 13901 (Post 33379492)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57710527

I thought they already were, considering how bad adherence is and how many "exempt" people there are.

The amount of exempt people has considerably increased over the past few days, which indicates public impatience with the law.

13901 Jul 4, 2021 3:00 am


Originally Posted by ahmetdouas (Post 33379509)
The amount of exempt people has considerably increased over the past few days, which indicates public impatience with the law.

It's something I'll never, ever understand. People react as if they're having to wear scuba gear, including flippers, to go to the shops.

ahmetdouas Jul 4, 2021 3:10 am


Originally Posted by 13901 (Post 33379515)
It's something I'll never, ever understand. People react as if they're having to wear scuba gear, including flippers, to go to the shops.

Maybe people just feel the law doesn't make sense and won't follow it anymore so go the exemption route.

13901 Jul 4, 2021 3:15 am


Originally Posted by ahmetdouas (Post 33379528)
Maybe people just feel the law doesn't make sense and won't follow it anymore so go the exemption route.

So they invent excuses not to comply with a minor requirement that has a great impact in terms of reducing contagion. It reminds me of those Neapolitans who, when car seatbelts were introduced, were buying t-shirts with a diagonal black band to fool the cops. Darwinism ensure they excused themselves out of the gene pool pretty quickly though.

ahmetdouas Jul 4, 2021 3:38 am


Originally Posted by 13901 (Post 33379531)
So they invent excuses not to comply with a minor requirement that has a great impact in terms of reducing contagion. It reminds me of those Neapolitans who, when car seatbelts were introduced, were buying t-shirts with a diagonal black band to fool the cops. Darwinism ensure they excused themselves out of the gene pool pretty quickly though.

Latest government messaging seems to indicate that contagion is no longer an issue where the great majority of people are now protected from the ill effects of the disease through vaccination. It's going to get harder and harder to justify any restrictions anymore, and I think the govt has gotten the memo now and is moving from legislation to recommendations.

Will be interesting to see how many people will wear face masks once the legal requirement ends, likely 19 July. 10%, 20%?

fransknorge Jul 4, 2021 4:03 am

You might want to read back a post directed at something you wrote yesterday. Seems you still do not understand.


Originally Posted by squawk (Post 33377852)
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is simply not true and it is frankly rather tiresome that you keep making this misleading claim that if vulnerable people are vaccinated transmission doesn't matter.

Firstly at the individual level, it matters because there are still plenty of people the vaccination does not fully protect: even with the very good efficacy we are seeing, there are those who are simply unlucky and end up very unwell or dead. But this also apples to those who have a compromised immune system (for whom the efficacy is likely to be lower, perhaps considerably lower), and for those who cannot have the vaccine for whatever reason (e.g. allergy, mental health). All of these people depend on sufficient population-level immunity to shield them: i.e. getting the rest of the population vaccinated, not simply "all the vulnerable".

Secondly, at the population level, it matters: even if someone is callous enough to say they don't care about these individuals, a small percentage of a large number of people is still a lot of people. While relatively few (as a percentage) are ending up in hospital now, we're back to a situation of significant growth in infections. If this continues unchecked, then eventually hospital capacity will be overwhelmed - with all the negative consequences for non-Covid health outcomes. Sure, that point will be at a higher level of "people infected" than in pre-vaccine times, but it will still happen eventually.

Finally, as our experience with emergence of the more infectious variants including Alpha (Kent) and Delta (India) shows, having large numbers of infected people acting as reservoirs of the virus means that more variants will inevitably emerge, risking vaccine escape and putting all that we've sacrificed so much for at risk. To reduce this risk to be manageable, we want to be keeping infections low, not letting them rip through the 'non-vulnerable' population.

And there are more:
For every million new infections, we might expect 100K-200K (mostly young) people living with long covid. Many will find their ability to work or study affected. The longer term impact of covid on the organs are unknown - but we know covid can damage the body.
Cases are highest & vax rates lowest in deprived areas, and people more likely to need hospital and get long covid. Children in deprived communities suffer more from education disruption. Letting infection rates soar will exacerbate inequalities

13901 Jul 4, 2021 4:14 am


Originally Posted by ahmetdouas (Post 33379546)
Latest government messaging seems to indicate that contagion is no longer an issue where the great majority of people are now protected from the ill effects of the disease through vaccination. It's going to get harder and harder to justify any restrictions anymore, and I think the govt has gotten the memo now and is moving from legislation to recommendations.

Will be interesting to see how many people will wear face masks once the legal requirement ends, likely 19 July. 10%, 20%?

Look, I hope history proves you right and we don’t have to lockdown again…

Silver Fox Jul 4, 2021 5:27 am


Originally Posted by 13901 (Post 33379515)
It's something I'll never, ever understand. People react as if they're having to wear scuba gear, including flippers, to go to the shops.

I am the same with people who have a fear of flying and wouldn't contemplate jumping out of perfectly serviceable aircraft. But there we have it...

Silver Fox Jul 4, 2021 5:38 am


Originally Posted by fransknorge (Post 33379564)
You might want to read back a post directed at something you wrote yesterday. Seems you still do not understand.



And there are more:
For every million new infections, we might expect 100K-200K (mostly young) people living with long covid. Many will find their ability to work or study affected. The longer term impact of covid on the organs are unknown - but we know covid can damage the body.
Cases are highest & vax rates lowest in deprived areas, and people more likely to need hospital and get long covid. Children in deprived communities suffer more from education disruption. Letting infection rates soar will exacerbate inequalities

Good argument to get out of lockdown.

squawk Jul 4, 2021 8:44 am


Originally Posted by Silver Fox (Post 33379640)
Good argument to get out of lockdown.

It feels like there is a lot of misrepresentation of people's views in this thread. It seems as if anyone who suggestions caution about unlocking is accused of somehow wanting lockdown, regardless of all the costs it imposes. I don't think this is accurate, and it doesn't advance a meaningful discussion in good faith.
Painting things as black and white, or diametrically opposed - for example, 'public health' vs 'the economy', or 'public health' vs 'kids' education' as if only one is possible - is distinctly unhelpful.
I don't know a single person who wants a lockdown for its own sake: they fully acknowledge the costs of locking down, but they are concerned about the consequences of ignoring the problem until it becomes too big to ignore, at which point those costs are even likely to be even greater.

DaveS Jul 4, 2021 9:07 am

Daily data:

Cases 24,248 (14,878 last Sunday)
Deaths 15 (11)
People vaccinated up to and including 3 July 2021:
First dose: 45,274,497
Second dose: 33,614,952

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 66.9% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 1.6%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 17.4 today.

HB7 Jul 4, 2021 9:13 am

To me, I'm really surprised at the massive deal made all over the media about masks. I get why people want to get rid of social distancing as this has an economical impact, however, why don't we keep masks till all adults (who accept the offer) are vaccinated? I hate wearing masks, but I can see the benefit till at least we are all fully vaccinated.

alex67500 Jul 4, 2021 9:19 am


Originally Posted by HB7 (Post 33379918)
To me, I'm really surprised at the massive deal made all over the media about masks. I get why people want to get rid of social distancing as this has an economical impact, however, why don't we keep masks till all adults (who accept the offer) are vaccinated? I hate wearing masks, but I can see the benefit till at least we are all fully vaccinated.

I feel it's going to be a personal choice now, and that by the way people have behaved during this pandemic I expect many will keep them in places like public transport and shops. Look what happened in East Asia after SARS, masks remained a common occurrence right up to this pandemic.

ahmetdouas Jul 4, 2021 12:58 pm


Originally Posted by alex67500 (Post 33379938)
I feel its going to be a personal choice now, and that by the way people have behaved during this pandemic I expect many will keep them in places like public transport and shops. Look what happened in East Asia after SARS, masks remained a common occurrence right up to this pandemic.

As long as it is not mandatory no problem. Nothing wrong with ppl wanting to wear masks if they so please.

ahmetdouas Jul 4, 2021 4:03 pm

Tomorrow will be the liberation day announcement by the PM.


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