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Old Apr 5, 2011, 7:59 am
  #121  
 
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Originally Posted by SWABrian
We are phasing out the -300s and as we take delivery of a -700, we retire a -300.
Thanks for the info, Brian. About how often are 700-series aircraft entering your fleet? I read elsewhere that this disclosure was no longer public knowledge - don't know if that is true or not. Since you guys have 170-190 700-series aircraft in your fleet (depending on who is counting and when), even taking a new delivery once every two weeks (which I would find hard to believe) it would take another 7-8 years to retire the 300's.
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 8:00 am
  #122  
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Originally Posted by texashoser
For at least the last couple of years, WN, the FAA, NTSB, and Boeing have all known that the skins on the older, 737 classic series aircraft, especially those with high-cycle life are susceptible to cracking. And they thought a couple of years ago they had a decent program for inspecting to find such cracks before they got bad enough to produce a tear.

We know now that those inspections were only looking for signs of one kind of fatigue and that cracks along the rivet overlap lines can happen now as well. So yet another test is being put together.

The bottom line is that all parties involved know that, quite simply, the skins are wearing out, perhaps faster than everyone thought, and the only real way to permanently solve the problem is either to replace the skins or retire the aircraft. WN, et al, can harp all day long about how they are following the rules, working with the FAA and Boeing, etc, but everyone knows what the solution is - it just costs money. And since the FAA is beholden to the airline industry because the airline industry funds the FAA, the FAA is going to be loathe to force WN (and other US-based operators) to reskin or retire. And since the FAA isn't going to force WN to go this route, you can be sure WN isn't going to do this voluntarily.
On our older 737-300s, we have replaced the skins in the areas where we were inspecting for fatigue
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 8:06 am
  #123  
 
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Originally Posted by SWABrian
On our older 737-300s, we have replaced the skins in the areas where we were inspecting for fatigue
Have they been completely reskinned in the known high-stress areas (ie, the crown) or just had the aluminum replaced where fatigue had actually been discovered? I think an acceptable compromise would be to reskin all aircraft - after all there are apparently 79 aircraft in the fleet where no reskinning has ocurred.

On the other hand, perhaps the ultrasound-like technology you are performing now, as long as the frequency of that testing is quite high, will be just fine. We'll see what the new FAA directives say.

Last edited by texashoser; Apr 5, 2011 at 8:12 am
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 8:07 am
  #124  
 
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Originally Posted by Life_Platinum
when was the last time you heard metal fatigue on a DC-9/MD-80?
Douglas built a very strong airplane. The skin is thicker, and rivits more frequent, than the Boeings. Compare the skin of a 30+ year old NWA DC9-50 with the skin of a 15-year old Boeing. The Boeing will have a lot more patches than the Douglas.
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 8:11 am
  #125  
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Originally Posted by texashoser
Thanks for the info, Brian. About how often are 700-series aircraft entering your fleet? I read elsewhere that this disclosure was no longer public knowledge - don't know if that is true or not. Since you guys have 170-190 700-series aircraft in your fleet (depending on who is counting and when), even taking a new delivery once every two weeks (which I would find hard to believe) it would take another 7-8 years to retire the 300's.
That info is public knowledge and is in our quarterly and annual reports under Investor Relations on SWALife.


The -300 retirements began a couple of years ago and have been continuing on a steady pace. We received roughly 20 new aircraft a year and that schedule will continue. With the exception of the FL aircraft we would get upon close, the total number of aircraft has remained flat for the past several years. From what I understand, there is room to accelerate aircraft deliveries.
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 8:17 am
  #126  
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Does an incident cost less than mass grounding, retrofitting etc? Does an incident cost less than FAA fines? What is the bottom line ($$) for WN?
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 8:18 am
  #127  
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Originally Posted by texashoser
Have they been completely reskinned or just had the aluminum replaced where fatigue had been discovered? I think an acceptable compromise would be to reskin all aircraft, but only those areas of the aircraft where stress and fatigue is likely. On the other hand, perhaps the ultrasound-like technology you are performing now, as long as the frequency of that testing is quite high, will be just fine. We'll see what the new FAA directives say.
From what I understand, all aircraft from the earlier batch were reskinned in the area where fatigue had been noticed on some aircraft.

Larry J is right about the design difference, the same held true of the 707 and DC-8. It doesn't mean one is safer or more desirable than the other, it's just a difference in design, just as the A-320 series has fly-by wire and the 737 a more traditional control system. One of the most robust jetliners ever built is the Russian TU-154, but it has a relatively high accident rate. There's a lot more involved in airline safety than just airplane skins.
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 8:39 am
  #128  
 
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Originally Posted by SWABrian
Larry J is right about the design difference, the same held true of the 707 and DC-8. It doesn't mean one is safer or more desirable than the other, it's just a difference in design, just as the A-320 series has fly-by wire and the 737 a more traditional control system. One of the most robust jetliners ever built is the Russian TU-154, but it has a relatively high accident rate. There's a lot more involved in airline safety than just airplane skins.
I know there is a lot more involved - I'm a private pilot. But with what you're saying, it still seems clear that fatigue-related possibilities are getting higher and higher as Boeing and the NTSB have discovered over the last several years and that the only solution is to reskin the remaining ~80 aircraft or accelerate their retirement. At the pace you discussed in a previous update (updates which are very much appreciated), we're looking at 8 years.

The Boeing 737 has indeed been a very safe and reliable aircraft, but unless the 700/800/900-series aircraft have other flaws that the 300-series aircraft does not, you still end up with a situation where the older models are basically the same plane as the newer, except that the older models are more likely to have to their skin crack and tear. There isn't really a way to spin around that.
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 8:55 am
  #129  
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Originally Posted by KelseyR
And they have done just that. FAA has issued an emergency directive to perform the same tests that have been done on WN on the specific early 737 planes.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm..._boeing05.html
Sorry, but I believe that you're incorrect. The FAA has ordered inspections of certain 737 Classics - those that have flown more than 30k cycles. The article you linked confirms that.

I'm advocating a voluntary inspection of EVERY 737 Classic, no matter how few cycles it has flown, and nothing in the article you linked says that WN or any other airline is performing inspections of every Classic 737. If I missed something in the article (or any other news source) that confirms that WN is inspecting every 733 and 735 it flies (more than the FAA is requiring), I'd welcome the correction.

Sometimes doing what's right involves doing more than just what the FAA requires.

Now up to five WN airplanes with cracks: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...e=domesticNews
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 9:13 am
  #130  
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Wow. Can you belive what the WN website says?

"We are experiencing very few flight delays while we are proactively inspecting some of our 737's"

"proactively"??? How is it proactive? It's reactive to the incident in which a HOLE which opened up on one of their aircraft the other day and now it's by FAA directive...

Amazing
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 9:18 am
  #131  
 
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Originally Posted by pinworm
"We are experiencing very few flight delays while we are proactively inspecting some of our 737's"

"proactively"??? How is it proactive? It's reactive to the incident in which a HOLE which opened up on one of their aircraft the other day and now it's by FAA directive...

Amazing
Prolly a typo. Maybe they meant probiotically - i.e. pouring yoghurt over the plane and checking for leaks.
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 9:40 am
  #132  
 
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It's proactive in that the planes they're currently inspecting haven't yet failed. <shrug>
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 10:09 am
  #133  
 
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Proactive in the sense no one made them do the inspections.

I think it's a fair use of the word.
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 10:23 am
  #134  
 
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Miles O'Brien ("Flying Cheap/er") discussing SWA

"...Southwest outsources 70-75% of its maintenance. The so-called “heavy” checks where they periodically pick the plane apart like a Thanksgiving turkey occur overseas in places like Guatemala and China. This practice is now the industry norm. The legacy airlines (with the exception of American) have moved the majority of their maintenance work out of their hangars and into the hands of airline maintenance job shops..."

http://milesobrien.com/?p=3165
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Old Apr 5, 2011, 10:43 am
  #135  
 
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Originally Posted by pacer142
It is interesting that most of the European low-costs including easyJet and Ryanair fly only brand-new planes (B737-800 for FR, A319/20 for EZY - a few B737-700 left at LTN used for fill-in turns but all will be gone by next year). Is there something different about the US aircraft market?
Part of the difference is WN is simply much older than Ryanair, Easyjet or Air Berlin - remember WN is close to twice the age of the 737's that are being examined. The European low cost operators don't have the same percentage of airframes to swap out as they reach the end of their planned lives. Given the rate Ryanair were acquiring -800's and Easyjet have taken the A319/320's they will have a significant 'bubble' to contend with a decade or two from now.
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