Collective agreement for the pilots being negotiated
Jun 26, 2022, 2:44 pm
#121
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Right now a strike seems likely but it is still not certain. If your flight is in the near future you could check their flight status page, which now has information about which flights are likely to be cancelled in the event of a strike.
https://www.flysas.com/travel/flight...ion=&ssm=true&
https://www.flysas.com/travel/flight...ion=&ssm=true&
Jun 26, 2022, 2:49 pm
#122
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Jun 26, 2022, 3:47 pm
#124
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Perhaps I'm being too pessimistic here, but I get the impression that the pilot union wants SAS to roll back much of the change that has already happened and is ongoing with Connect, Link (and possibly also the additional volume of wet leases). I don't really think that SAS could agree to a freeze at the current level if X is more than 1 year or so, and any X > 0 may set a precedent they don't want to give the pilot union. Otherwise they would reasonably reduce the potential pool of new investors, since some of the elements of the corporate strategy would be locked in for a couple of years.
If the strike goes ahead on Wednesday, or a few days later after a delay initiated by the mediators (and accepted by the pilot union to show good will), I think we should keep our eyes open for new announcements from SAS regarding changes to SAS Forward, in order to achieve even greater savings. If there isn't already an alternative "nastier" plan with 0 pilots left in SAS Scandinavia (or SAS Scandinavia divested off after assets have moved to another part of the group), I'd be surprised. I consider myself a much nicer person that most management consultants, and even I have thought of this possibility.
So I would expect such announcements to come very quickly after the strike starts, if it is meant to pressure the pilot union.
In principle, we could also look for the Danish and Swedish governments to change their previous position on loans (SE & DK) and new capital (DK), but this seems unlikely while a strike is ongoing. I don't think social democratic governments wants to bee seen interferingng in an ongoing labour conflict (and it's close to the next election in Sweden), no matter what they actually think as owners.
If the strike goes ahead on Wednesday, or a few days later after a delay initiated by the mediators (and accepted by the pilot union to show good will), I think we should keep our eyes open for new announcements from SAS regarding changes to SAS Forward, in order to achieve even greater savings. If there isn't already an alternative "nastier" plan with 0 pilots left in SAS Scandinavia (or SAS Scandinavia divested off after assets have moved to another part of the group), I'd be surprised. I consider myself a much nicer person that most management consultants, and even I have thought of this possibility.
So I would expect such announcements to come very quickly after the strike starts, if it is meant to pressure the pilot union.In principle, we could also look for the Danish and Swedish governments to change their previous position on loans (SE & DK) and new capital (DK), but this seems unlikely while a strike is ongoing. I don't think social democratic governments wants to bee seen interferingng in an ongoing labour conflict (and it's close to the next election in Sweden), no matter what they actually think as owners.
I agree that the employees should not have the right to veto management strategy. If they want that, buy enough shares and then they have the right to change management. But the compromise will need some unpalatable things on either side that can been seen as a victory on the opposing side.
Jun 26, 2022, 5:03 pm
#125
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Jun 26, 2022, 5:34 pm
#126
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As I mentioned, not much comparison from the last couple of years to go on, but I'd say a strike in Sweden is "until further notice" rather than automatically time-limited. In the past, I know of strikes that have been for certain days only, but there was no indication of this when the pilot union announced their upcoming strike.
AFAIK, the Swedish government's 21.8% stake in SAS should be for sale to the right buyer.
AFAIK, the Swedish government's 21.8% stake in SAS should be for sale to the right buyer.
Jun 26, 2022, 5:46 pm
#127
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I'm going a bit OT here, but any assessment if 0.64 SEK per share (market cap about 4.65 bn SEK) is a bargain or not would have to consider the enormous dilution of equity that would go with 29.5 billion SEK of new capital (including the conversion of loans to share equity) under SAS Forward. The current shares are unlikely to correspond to more than around 10% of the new number of shares if the plan is implemented. There's been a lot of short trading in the SAS share, i.e., a lot of professional investors expect it to go down further.
Last edited by Tomas E; Jun 27, 2022 at 1:31 am
Jun 26, 2022, 6:38 pm
#128
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It seems that the SK flights I was most likely to use this summer — EWR, IAD, ORD, SFO and YYZ — are among those flights that SAS says will likely be hit with this anticipated strike.
And given the other anticipated strike-driven cancellations for intra-Scandinavia flights, even if rerouted to the SAS hubs, there is going to be the issue of how to continue onwards since much of the remaining decent train space there could get used up fast.
Even if any of the friendly neighborhood Danish billionaires were to whimsically gift me a billion DKK, I wouldn’t even consider using any of it to load up on SK shares. Would you? 
And given the other anticipated strike-driven cancellations for intra-Scandinavia flights, even if rerouted to the SAS hubs, there is going to be the issue of how to continue onwards since much of the remaining decent train space there could get used up fast.
Last edited by GUWonder; Jun 26, 2022 at 6:45 pm
Jun 26, 2022, 6:47 pm
#129
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It seems that the SK flights I was most likely to use this summer — EWR, IAD, ORD, SFO and YYZ — are among those flights that SAS says will likely be hit with this anticipated strike.
And given the other anticipated strike-driven cancellations for intra-Scandinavia flights, even if rerouted to the SAS hubs, there is going to be the issue of how to continue onwards since much of the remaining decent train space there could get used up fast.
Even if any of the friendly neighborhood Danish billionaires were to whimsically gift me a billion DKK, I wouldn’t even consider using any of it to load up on SK shares. Would you?
And given the other anticipated strike-driven cancellations for intra-Scandinavia flights, even if rerouted to the SAS hubs, there is going to be the issue of how to continue onwards since much of the remaining decent train space there could get used up fast.
Even if any of the friendly neighborhood Danish billionaires were to whimsically gift me a billion DKK, I wouldn’t even consider using any of it to load up on SK shares. Would you?
Jun 26, 2022, 6:59 pm
#130
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But if you were in the market to burn free cash, you could find SAS and its pilots useful to have set up things for quickly putting on the bonfire that cash burning a hole in your pocket/purse/wallet.
If the company management and its pilots didn’t think that SAS had any recourse to government financial backstops, the behavior of the involved parties would possibly be very different.
If the company management and its pilots didn’t think that SAS had any recourse to government financial backstops, the behavior of the involved parties would possibly be very different.
Jun 27, 2022, 12:24 am
#132
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If it is only announced late tomorrow for a postponement, there will probably be some cancellations anyway, as they would probably need to be announced, planned, and managed....
Last edited by CPH-Flyer; Jun 27, 2022 at 2:01 am
Jun 27, 2022, 1:36 am
#134
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100% of SAS long haul flights will be affected if there is a strike, since all of them are operated by SAS Scandinavia aka "SAS mainline" (which will be on strike) and not SAS Connect, SAS Link or wet lease companies (which will not be on strike).
Last edited by Tomas E; Jun 27, 2022 at 8:44 am Reason: Wrong word!
Jun 27, 2022, 3:26 am
#135
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Seems that Norway does not allow for an actual postponement of the strike by the mediator. But there are options to agree to let the negotiations continue without a strike.
And not too optimistic reading....
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/penge/uret...t-fra-hinanden
And not too optimistic reading....
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/penge/uret...t-fra-hinanden