Norwegian Air stability through summer?
#91
Join Date: Mar 2011
Programs: TrueBlue
Posts: 195
I think it's hard for a lay-person to figure out Norwegian. I've flown with them a few times since they started their transatlantic services and, in general, I like them.
I mean, I'm on the fence about buying BOS-FCO in late September. With all these difficulties going on, I get an email two days ago advertising a new route from New York to *Athens*.
I figured I'd wait until some news in March comes out - but it's hard to "read the tea leaves" to see what shape they'll be in. I mean, who knows what they could axe in order to stay in business and I'd hate to make all the other planning for an Italian vacation only to suddenly lose out on the airfare that made it all possible. (Nonstops from Boston to Rome aren't easy to find, nor cheap)
I'm really pulling for Norwegian to succeed (since JetBlue doesn't seem to want to reveal WHEN they might start going to Europe) but with all this chaos???
I mean, I'm on the fence about buying BOS-FCO in late September. With all these difficulties going on, I get an email two days ago advertising a new route from New York to *Athens*.
I figured I'd wait until some news in March comes out - but it's hard to "read the tea leaves" to see what shape they'll be in. I mean, who knows what they could axe in order to stay in business and I'd hate to make all the other planning for an Italian vacation only to suddenly lose out on the airfare that made it all possible. (Nonstops from Boston to Rome aren't easy to find, nor cheap)
I'm really pulling for Norwegian to succeed (since JetBlue doesn't seem to want to reveal WHEN they might start going to Europe) but with all this chaos???
#92
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,424
The problem is that the world doesn't need or want what Norwegian is selling. Pretty much everyone in the industry thought their model would fail. But Norwegian management somehow convinced some investors that everyone in the industry was wrong -- and then management piled on with a series of particularly boneheaded decisions. The odds that this turns out well are low. It's probably just a question of "when". But if Norwegian gets their money from their diabolical share offering, I think "when" is unlikely to happen for many months. If you can tolerate the risk, you might snag a bargain -- but I would only bite if their fare in much lower than the alternative. Folks who are simply vacationing and have some flexibility will almost certainly be better off booking with another carrier.
#93
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,262
A further issue is IRROPS handling in the meantime. DY does not have interline ticketing agreements with other carriers, so rerouting is some number of days later. There are many threads here from people who were not provided hotel and meal vouchers and then vaguely told to submit receipts only to chase refunds for ages.
For well-resourced travelers, these are not the end of the world. But, for those on a budget -- presumably why they booked DY in the first place -- a few extra nights in a hotel for a family can run much more than they can afford and purchasing new tickets may be out of the question.
As the cash position deteriorates, conserving what remains becomes a greater priority.
If one must travel, I would hedge these risks with really high-quality travel insurance (may take something better than the average credit card).
The cheaper ticket may not be the less expensive journey.
For well-resourced travelers, these are not the end of the world. But, for those on a budget -- presumably why they booked DY in the first place -- a few extra nights in a hotel for a family can run much more than they can afford and purchasing new tickets may be out of the question.
As the cash position deteriorates, conserving what remains becomes a greater priority.
If one must travel, I would hedge these risks with really high-quality travel insurance (may take something better than the average credit card).
The cheaper ticket may not be the less expensive journey.
Last edited by Often1; Feb 21, 2019 at 8:50 am
#94
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: Marriott LT Tit; Hyatt Explorist; Hilton CC Gold; IHG CC Plt; Hertz (MR) 5 star
Posts: 5,536
If it all goes through, we should know the outcome on 11 March. If something doesn't go through, there may be something in the prospectus allowing for an extension of the subscription period, in which case we won't know the outcome until later.The closing price today was 91.00 crowns and the subscription price is 33 crowns. You get two new shares for each existing share. Define some parameters:
p1 = the current price (91.00 crowns)
p2 = theoretical price tomorrow
r = theoretical price of subscription rights
s = subscription price (33 crowns)
Thus:
p1 + 2*s = 3*p2
r = p2 - s
In other words, p2 = 52 crowns and r = 21 crowns. The subscription rights will be in value and the share price can drop by another 21 crowns before it's no longer profitable to use the rights to get new shares. I'd say that it's likely to go through.
If the current shareholders don't wish to give their money to DY, then they sell their subscription rights in the market and then the buyer uses those rights instead.
p1 = the current price (91.00 crowns)
p2 = theoretical price tomorrow
r = theoretical price of subscription rights
s = subscription price (33 crowns)
Thus:
p1 + 2*s = 3*p2
r = p2 - s
In other words, p2 = 52 crowns and r = 21 crowns. The subscription rights will be in value and the share price can drop by another 21 crowns before it's no longer profitable to use the rights to get new shares. I'd say that it's likely to go through.
If the current shareholders don't wish to give their money to DY, then they sell their subscription rights in the market and then the buyer uses those rights instead.
This raises an interesting thought. IF the stock price drifts below 33 NOK before one exercises their rights, Norwegian raises zero new capital. This capital raise may not happen.
#95
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: Marriott LT Tit; Hyatt Explorist; Hilton CC Gold; IHG CC Plt; Hertz (MR) 5 star
Posts: 5,536
The problem is that Norwegian's fares are depressing other carriers' tares. Once Norwegian goes belly up, other carrier prices will rise considerably.
#96
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,424
Mr Market agrees with your calculations. The stock gapped down on Wednesday open to 55 NOK.
This raises an interesting thought. IF the stock price drifts below 33 NOK before one exercises their rights, Norwegian raises zero new capital. This capital raise may not happen.
This raises an interesting thought. IF the stock price drifts below 33 NOK before one exercises their rights, Norwegian raises zero new capital. This capital raise may not happen.
#97
Ah, but that's the rub. They probably can't raise fares, as their customers will simply defect to the major carriers (in case you haven't noticed, there are TONS of cheap off-season fares across the Atlantic if you're looking for one). And Norwegian's costs are what they are: everyone needs to buy planes and fuel, and their operation is otherwise run on a pretty shoestring basis.
Without the Norwegian one way, would probably just have spent a week in Paris vs 2 destinations. Pricing for the 2 destinations on legacy was around $700-$800 (+$100 Eurostar) vs $300-$400 for just Paris r/t.
Last edited by 77Pat; Feb 23, 2019 at 8:42 am
#98
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: AA, United, Iberia, US Airways
Posts: 47
[QUOTE=djplong;30804913]I think it's hard for a lay-person to figure out Norwegian. I've flown with them a few times since they started their transatlantic services and, in general, I like them."
I started a new thread asking for help as a first time norwegian flyer. I'd welcome advice! Flying this friday.
I started a new thread asking for help as a first time norwegian flyer. I'd welcome advice! Flying this friday.
Last edited by drsh99; Feb 26, 2019 at 5:54 am Reason: Typo
#99
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 9
Mr Market agrees with your calculations. The stock gapped down on Wednesday open to 55 NOK.
This raises an interesting thought. IF the stock price drifts below 33 NOK before one exercises their rights, Norwegian raises zero new capital. This capital raise may not happen.
This raises an interesting thought. IF the stock price drifts below 33 NOK before one exercises their rights, Norwegian raises zero new capital. This capital raise may not happen.
I’m also worrying about their financial health after this whole Max 8 situation so I’m wondering if now also that throws everything in regards to the capital raise influx. I saw an article this morning that they are going to go after Boeing to foot the bill on this fiasco, but I’m pretty sure all the other carries who fly the Max 8 are going to do the same if they haven’t already.
Thanks in advance
#100
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At this point, why is it Boeing's fault that the EC and various European countries have grounded the MAX 8? Norwegian should try to send a bill to the regulators instead and place a bet on the outcome of that.
#101
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Location: DCA
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Posts: 50,262
It seems a bit of bravado by DY to suggest that it has a provable case against Boeing at this point. While I absolutely agree that various regulators quite properly grounded the aircraft, that does not mean that Boeing either did anything wrong or is liable. If it turns out that the grounding was not warranted by any action Boeing did or did not take, DY will have thrown good money after bad. But, in desperate times, that may be all that is left.
#102
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 2,016
The cash injection succeeded. Stock exchange message here: https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/471675
You had to submit a binding resolution to subscribe the new shares about two days before the Ethiopian flight crashed, so it doesn't change anything with the rights issue. This issue of course costs DY a lot of money as some people will need hotel rooms, and the crew needs to be paid even if the flights are grounded.
I suspect that DY simply try to sound innocent so that customers don't blame DY for flight cancellations. It is definitely too early to sue Boeing as it isn't yet known if Boeing has done anything wrong or not.
It seems a bit of bravado by DY to suggest that it has a provable case against Boeing at this point. While I absolutely agree that various regulators quite properly grounded the aircraft, that does not mean that Boeing either did anything wrong or is liable. If it turns out that the grounding was not warranted by any action Boeing did or did not take, DY will have thrown good money after bad. But, in desperate times, that may be all that is left.
#103
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: Marriott LT Tit; Hyatt Explorist; Hilton CC Gold; IHG CC Plt; Hertz (MR) 5 star
Posts: 5,536
It seems a bit of bravado by DY to suggest that it has a provable case against Boeing at this point. While I absolutely agree that various regulators quite properly grounded the aircraft, that does not mean that Boeing either did anything wrong or is liable. If it turns out that the grounding was not warranted by any action Boeing did or did not take, DY will have thrown good money after bad. But, in desperate times, that may be all that is left.
Both Boeing and the FAA screwed up on the 737 Max. Buyers of the Max were unaware of the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) including the pilots flying the Max until after the Lion Air accident. Not good. I fly the Airbus 320 family so I don't know what measures the fleet is taking but I suspect every single 737 pilot at my company is going to be required to go through a runaway trim simulator session by the time this is over. It's not cheap for the airlines.
I understand why Boeing opted for MCAS; they're continuing to stretch out the life of the 737. Personally, I thought the 737 had far outlived its usefulness when the -900 rolled off the line. In order to keep from dragging the tail on the -900, Boeing increased the approach speed to ludicrous speed with much longer landing distances. The very predictable result has been several -900s run off the end of the runway because they were unable to stop within the runway length. In fact, a 737 pilot told me a while back that United doesn't allow the 737-900 to land at LGA because of the long landing distance.
#104
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Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,424
I understand why Boeing opted for MCAS; they're continuing to stretch out the life of the 737. Personally, I thought the 737 had far outlived its usefulness when the -900 rolled off the line. In order to keep from dragging the tail on the -900, Boeing increased the approach speed to ludicrous speed with much longer landing distances. The very predictable result has been several -900s run off the end of the runway because they were unable to stop within the runway length. In fact, a 737 pilot told me a while back that United doesn't allow the 737-900 to land at LGA because of the long landing distance.
#105
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Portland OR
Programs: United 1K 1MM, Marriott Bonvoy Platinum, Hilton HHonors Gold
Posts: 560
Norwegian's Chairman has resigned. Bjorn Kise (not Bjorn Kjos, he's the CEO) will step down at the annual shareholders' meeting in May.
Norwegian Air chairman Bjorn Kise resigns as turbulence hits carrier after failed bid from British Airways owner IAG | City A.M.
Norwegian Air chairman Bjorn Kise resigns as turbulence hits carrier after failed bid from British Airways owner IAG | City A.M.