If LATAM definitely stays in OW, I just don't see how the EU will approve of IAG buying TP. It will give OW and insane amount of pricing power from the Iberian peninsula to S America. Combining AA, LATAM, IB and TP would be nearly monopolistic.

but if they are bought by LH this would increase their already unhealthy stranglehold they have in CE market, although I doubt the clowns running EU antitrust would give more than a cursory glance.

Slightly adjusting the topic:

What does the provision of the Chilean government's approval that requires LAN and TAM to open their FF programs to other airlines mean for oneworld?

If smaller rivals participate in the program, would they be treated as oneworld affiliates?

Is this provision meaningful or can LATAM make up whatever participation requirements and conditions they want, effectively closing the program to outside airlines?

Sorry, I haven't seen a good explanation of the provision, since my Spanish is quite poor and my vague notion of what something says in Portuguese is based on its similarity to Spanish.

Personally, would rather have IAG focus on the Italian market and make a bid for IG. Other than IB, OW is rather weak in the Mediterranean area. Also, I'm wondering if IAG can capture some LIS-Brazil O&D for less money than buying TP itself. Although, I do like the idea of OW stealing another member from Star.

It really doesn't mean that much, as there is little if any competition on the routes mentioned by the provision.

In theory, G3 could take advantage of it, but I suspect the Brazilian govt would have something to say about that. Based on stated routes like MVD-SCL, Pluna (PU) could make such a request.

It would probably be in LA's interest to make them affiliates as they could provide feed to LANTAM/OW and vice-versa. However, I see nothing in the provision that says LA is under obligation to do so.

Participating in LANPass and being an affiliate are two different things. For instance, OpenSkies(EC) participates in BAEC, but is not a OW affiliate member.

The provision does state that..

If ... an airline ... ask to participate in the Frequent Flyer Program of Latam, the latter shall extend for five years all those benefits. "

Based on that, I would imagine that LA has little ability to restrict participation of any airline that qualifies under the stated provision.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16191762

This should be interesting...

Especially this bit:

Expect some heavy lobbying from Oneworld and Star. Hopefully the fact that LAN has been part of Oneworld much longer than TAM has been part of Star, will swing them our way.

Happy Travels.

It also stated that it has to be a different Alliance from Taca/Avianca (currently in *A). I can't see *A kicking out Taca in hopes of getting LATAM.
Odds are very much in favor of LATAM going to OW, IMO. ^

I could, *IF* those hopes are not just hopes, but very meaningful possibility.

LATAM would be more valuable than Taca/Avianca for either alliance.

I hope OW is able to get/keep them, it would be a HUGE blow to OW if LATAM left.

See September posts after the Chilean decision from this thread (#26 and #28).

To summarise, LA & TAM now has three separate options:

A. Cancel the Merger or
B. Join oneworld
C. Join Skyteam

Either A or C are extremely unlikely.

Yup, my guess as well would be that JJ will go with OW, where LA has a much stronger position compared to them in *A. We'll just have to wait and see, won't we?

Gol is on its way to skyteam.

TACA/Aviance will be in Star.

Latam is mostly likely to stay in oneworld.

But TAP would be in a tricky situation.

As is Aerolinas Argentinas (AR), which si the only other major airlne in Argentina besides LAN. (Both have subsidiaries for intra-Argentina flights.)

So I don't see how Argentna would allow both of them to be in the same alliance (unless Argentina doesn't care about such things the way their neighbor countries do).

Sky Team and AR deserve each other - I would NEVER fly AR again.