LAN takeover of TAM
 

It looks like regulatory approval of LAN's proposed takeover of TAM will be coming very soon. Any thoughts on how this will impact us? What can we expect in terms of integration of TAM into Oneworld? That offers a great route system in Brazil and other parts of South America, plus TAM has nice routes to Europe.

I've heard LATAM will be Star Alliance. What makes you think they'll be in Oneworld?

I had heared that both CEO state that the decision of alliance would not be made until a much later date after the approval...

Thus I will not be surprised to see three possibilities:
1>, both in Star
2>, both in oneworld
3>, Keep the situation now until 'later'*
* (later means when there is demand that they have to make a full commitment, or when corruption occurs)

... and, of course, if it is OW,
will we be able to use BA miles on TAM routes...?

I guess no one even knows if the BA options
to South America will be changed with "Aviros".

I could be mistaken, but it seems to me that if LAN is in Oneworld, and it is the acquiring company, then the combined airline would be in Oneworld. What have you heard differently?

LAN may move to the Star Alliance at some point after the deal is closed.

There are no guarantees LAN will stay with Oneworld. I guess you've missed the proposal Star made last December and the ongoing discussions since then. Where LAN ends up is very much up in the air.
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/onewo...hlight=lan+tam
http://www.latamairlines.com/downloa...omer%20FAQ.pdf

Truth is no-one knows for sure......although the word from inside the airline industry is that they'll be in Star. Which probably means they'll be in Oneworld. :D

Wow, OneWorld reckons to have the best South American network with LAN, if LAN went to Star that'd be LAN, TAM, Avianca and TACA in Star, Save for a bit of Paraguay and the odd AA and Quantas flight coming to South America, Star would have everything south of Mexico

I think that a lot of people here are making a lot of assumptions.

I expect that the LAN takeover of JJ will go ahead, but that in itself is no guarantee that JJ will end up in OW.

I would think that the Brazilian authorities would look long and hard at whether the combo of AA/ LATAM/ IAG is something they would be happy with.

It is entirely possible that they will say "yes" to the takeover, and "no" to a JJ move to OW due to the concentration of market share they may be forced to stay in two separate alliances post merger if they cannot get regulatory approval for JJ to move to OW (All it would take is for the Brazilian authorities to say that they would not approve JJ resuming a frequent flyer earning and redemption agreement with AA - since ff reciprocity is a pre-requisite of membership - and that would mean that JJ could not move) The US-Brazil market has changed considerably since the last time that AA and JJ had a frequent flyer agreement - RG has disappeared and JJ flies a much more substantial USA schedule, so it is by no means a foregone conclusion that authorities would permit a tie-up between JJ and AA to be resumed.

same reasoning can be applied to an eventual LH-TAP-TACA-Avianca-LATAM combo. The latter two would scoop entirely the SA market, leaving no space either for other alliances. If happening would replace a perceived OW "dominance" with an undesirable * monopoly, especially on EU-SA routes.

I'm not saying that LATAM would end up in *A either, I agree that would be unhealthy too. I am saying that LATAM may, whether they like it or not, have to stay split over two alliances. I just don't think that people should assume that JJ in OW is an automatic follow on from the LAN takeover of TAM. It aint over until the regulators sing.

Who's making assumptions now? :D

Here's another one....LATAM will be in Star. IAG buy TAP so they'll leave Star. GOL will join Oneworld and the equilibrium of the alliances in S America will be restored.

But then why can't it be the other way round. LATAM will be in OW. LH will buy TAP and GOL will go to ST.

IAG said that they would try to buy TAP, but the Portuguese PM urges Lufthansa to consider TAP.

At the end we will just have to wait till LATAM announces the news, it could go in any direction for any airline.


Links:http://www.breakingtravelnews.com/ne...-consider-tap/
and http://www.centreforaviation.com/ana...eighs-in-58245

LH are welcome to buy TAP. I don't see the IAG interest in them being a serious one despite my earlier tongue in cheek comment.
All they can offer IAG is lot of routes to Brazil mainly used by the leisure market and nowt much else.