jrey

I jumped on the TP 270k pts for the cat 1-5 certificate + 120k miles. My plan is to use it for a current cat 7 hotel which means I still need to spend 60k more points to upgrade the certificate to cat 7. The property I am looking to stay is now cat 7 and will be cat 5 after August 1 so the number of points required isn't changed. Here is what I am thinking: If I upgrade the certificate to cat 6 by paying 30k points and hope that it can be used for the new cat 5 after August 1. How likely is this option? Or will Marriott ask me to pay additional 30k points? Or if I use it for another hotel with new cat 4, will I get 30k points refunded?

Flying for Fun

NOT TRUE! I have booked 7 CX awards to/from South Africa, Australia, Asia & North America in the 9 months you say they were zeroed out!

NOT TRUE! I have been watching city pairs and CX availability does appear to be coming back. Last week when I checked JFK-HKG there was no CX award availability in any cabin even close it. Now there is F & J open 3 months out in October and 5 months out in December. HKG-SIN availability every day in October. October 11th, 8 of the 9 flight that day have J.

Granted some city pairs don't appear to have availability now just like JFK-HKG didn't last week. I hope those will come back too. Making a blanket statement that they are NOT coming back is WRONG.

James

Flying for Fun

While @Happy says no, and I follow his reasoning @Flying for Fun has a different viewpoint for consideration. Now, a 270K TP will get you 120K Airline miles for AA or AS and a Cat 1-5 7-day hotel certificate. Post August 1st 270K MR will get you 110K (no bonus for the additional 30K MR, only 5K bonus Airline Miles on multiples of 60K MR) and that is it!

We all believe that AS is overdue for a devaluation on partner awards, AA may be more stable over your 2 year window. However I don't believe after any AS devaluation you would be worse off than AA. Furthermore, AS does allow for stopovers on one-way awards and has some pretty sweet short haul awards starting at 5K. With 120K from a TP now you could take 24 one-way trips between SEA-SFO; 12 returns or a family of 4 round-trip 3 times.

Since you have many MR points I would buy a TP for 270K for 120K AS miles and the 7 day certificate. At a minimum you will have an additional 10K AS miles for the same amount of MR Points even if you throw the certificate away. But then again, maybe a family long-weekend getaway and a few free days in a hotel might fit the plans.

I know a lot of people are going to be making award reservations at the 60K level for future New Category 8 properties. I won't be one of them. These properties are generally more expensive to get to, expensive for food & beverage, transportation etc; often without alternatives. 5 nights for 240K (5th night free), while a steal is still 100K Alaska Miles post August 1st which is a return CX J flight from North America and SE Asia at current rates. For myself, I find more value in that.

James

pinniped

I just did an AS Travel Package. Still hoping to jump on one CX R/T to Asia sometime in the 2019-2020 range. But if not, I'm actually flying a fair bit of AS now and figure that'll only grow in the future as they themselves grow. It's still a decent spot for miles and a decent spot to be even a low-tier elite. The addition of Aer Lingus to the partner list is pretty nice as well.

kkl

Currently looking at redeeming a 7 night TIER 5 cert.

I have 4x 7 night cat 1-5 certs.

options are:

7 nights points redemption is 420K including 5th night free.

Upgrading 1-5 cert to Tier 5 is 270k MR points.

or redeeming a new UA cert for 540k. for a net opportunity cost of 120K MR for 132 UA miles seems like no brainer?

OR should i wait till more info is out on how my remaining certs will churn to the new program.

lkar

Two seems like the obvious answer, but I'm still guessing three, at least as of today. My reasoning is fairly simple. First, starwood lurker has been pretty clear that floaters will be converted to points. Second, we haven't heard a peep yet otherwise about this even though Marriott has been very transparent otherwise with all the details. Why is this second point interesting? Well, Marriott has been extremely proactive to reaching out to the travel blogging community and the major bloggers with extensive details about the transition, what will happen with the credit cards, what will happen with awards charts, earning of elite status, earning of lifetime status. Their silence on floater certs conversion is noticeable. There could be any number of reasons. Maybe they just haven't figured it out yet. But one interpretation is what others have already posited -- that they are fearful of a run on points. Giving the full points credit for the value of the cert is essentially offering miles at a 1:1 transfer and gutting their new travel packages for at least a year. So, the hypothesis is that the end result will be favorable for floater certs but they don't want to acknowledge that pre 8/1.

I'm taking this gamble. I have a cert booked right now and attached to a reservation, but I'm going to cancel before Aug 1. If it turns out that 1 is the correct answer, I've screwed myself. If two is the correct answer, I should be fine and just rebook. So, the question is do I think 3 is more likely than 1. I do. By a little. (Everyone needs to make their own decision and have their own risk tolerance -- I'm not trying to convince anyone, just giving my reasoning.)

Mr. Vker

What would you do? I have enough MR points for a last TP Cat 1-5 and 120K either AA miles or WN Points. Here's the issue. I can't do anything but a Cat 1-5 and I really don't need the cert. I'd just be doing it for the airline miles and rolling the dice on the cert refund. This would practically deplete my MR balance until I got the refund. I'm already sitting on (2) Cat 1-5 single night certs and a Cat 1-5 Travel Package I had already processed.

I'm torn between getting the TP or sitting on the points.

CIT85

New Cat 4 is higher than old Cat 5 and will require more points. You cannot exchange old Cat 1-5 cert for new Cat 4 cert.

Why not leave the cert attached to a reservation after Aug. 1? If MR will refund reasonable points for floater cert, then you can still cancel and get the refund.

I am still debating whether to cash points for a TP now. The Renaissance Phuket that I am looking at is only 3400+ BHT prepaid rate so I'll just pay cash instead of using points. I don't have other planned use for a cert.

CIT85

You already have more certs than you know what to do with. Just sit on the MR points and possibly use them for Cat 7 SPG properties that will go down in points Aug. 1, especially between Aug. 1 and Dec. 31 2018. Personally I think Cat 1-5 MR certs are practically worthless, since they cannot be used at nicer hotels I want to stay at.

Mr. Vker

This is the way I am leaning. At first, I was going to get the TP as soon as I had the points Then I stepped back and thought a bit more.

pinniped

But on August 1st, as a one-time conversion, it's possible that Marriott will do this conversion, as the hotel portion is essentially the same.

In the future, the TP's have been devalued. But solely for the purposes of "floater" conversion, I think it's actually likely that we'll get New Cat 4 certificates.

A forced-redeposit at 45k would be a hardcore d*ck move on Marriott's part. They're not going to do this.
A forced-redeposit at 150k would be pretty generous. Too generous that I'd never expect this, but rather be pleasantly surprised if it happens.
A conversion of Old 5 to New 4 is the most fair thing to happen. The only reason they wouldn't do this is if there's some technical difficulty in doing so.

SanDiego1K

I'd sit on it. We will still have the ability to move points to airlines as we have done in the Starwood era. We'll be able to move 60K Marriott points and get a 15K bonus, resulting in 25K airline points. If you don't need the hotel cert, you're roughly even with doing a travel package now versus airline only in the future. You lose your flexiblity if you completely deplete your points now.

Can we still move points to airlines without a hotel component?

lkar

The hotel I'm looking at will be 25,000 post merger, so I think I'll still be ok. Lurker has said that "floater" certs are going to get converted to points, but it's not so clear what happens to certs attached to reservations and then cancelled after Aug 1. Maybe they will be transferable to points, maybe something else. I'm going to roll with having it be a true floater on Aug 1 and see what happens.

SightseeMC

I am taking this gamble as well; just grabbed a Cat 1-5 with the wife's points yesterday. But I am juuuuust wary enough of scenario 1 that I am holding the points for another cert until Marriott clarifies the floater outcome. If they block purchasing certs due to a windfall, I think I will have just enough to buy the newly expensive Cat 4 after 8/1, and suck up on losing the extra miles.

This is why I don't gamble on sports. I have to hedge.

Counsellor

Here's my situation: I would like to redeem a Travel Package for 7 nights and 120K (actually 132K) United Mileage Plus miles. I have a hotel in mind, currently a Cat 8, which will become a (new) Cat 5 on 1 August. I would like to stay there in late July of next year (2019) but realize I can't confirm a redemption reservation in July before the change on 1 August. I also note that the "cost" of airline miles as a part of the Travel Package will go up from 1 MR point to 1.5 MR points per mile on 1 August.

Essentially, I have two choices: Redeem a Cat 8 package before 1 August for 360K points, and attach the certificate to a reservation in June 2019. This gets me the 132K United miles, and with luck (since I will have spent 240K points on the hotel portion, a reservation that would cost only 210K points after 1 August) they'll let me move my reservation one month to the right next year without charge.

Or: Wait until late August and -- using the new redemption chart -- redeem 7 nights at the new Cat 5 rate and 120 110K United points {NOTE: Edited to read 110} (if the 10% bonus is still in effect next month, something I've been unable to confirm) for 390K points and attach the certificate to a reservation in late July 2019.

It seems to me the first option (redeem before 1 August and hope) is the better one. I'll have the miles in my account, and I hope I can move the reservation at no additional cost (or if really lucky get a voucher for the 240K points from the Cat 8 reservation that I can use against the 210K cost of the Cat 5 reservation).

As a back-up, I'd plan to find out what the new rules will be, and if they result in a substantial penalty to move the reservation (at the same property), try to rearrange my plans for next summer to stay at that hotel in June as reserved. That may be possible, but the property is in Europe, and I'm not sure how flexible I can be on the June versus July stay.

Any thoughts? Am I missing something?