27 Jan : New points devaluation ?
 

It seems overnight the value of points have been cut in half, at least for the dates and properties I've checked.

For example Maldivian properties went from 100-120k/night to 198k/night…

When I look at the Maldives, I see cash rates that make points worth far more than 1-2 cents per point. If the Ritz is 4K USD per night, 198K doesn’t sound like a bad valuation (if the Maldives is something you find desirable). I see plenty of Maldives properties that aren’t the Ritz for 100K or less.

I would be curious to hear of examples that aren’t the Maldives along with the comparison to the average cash rates at these properties.

Edit to Add: I pulled up Tokyo in March, and the points amounts seem about the same, if not less, than what I was seeing last month at top properties.

It seems that the caps have increased dramatically.

https://viewfromthewing.com/bonvoyed...ng-to-members/

Some resorts still keep the old values (for now) but it’s just a question of time. The system now allows for more and at some point in time, more will be asked for.

Luckily, I just redeemed all my points.

I mean, that article with biased language didn’t seem to provide any other examples besides the JW Masai Mara.

The core information is just the increased caps - not the examples. That's why I linked it.

When looking at Bora Bora for example, the search overview now shows way higher values now (from 291k for 5 days to 363k for Westin and from 520k to 900k for St. Regis). But when actually searching for dates at a specific location, I still get offered the true rates. St. Regis asked for 2M points already before the change of caps and Westin still asks for the same rate before the change (290-300k depending on dates).

So that's why I assume it is just a matter of time until the point increases really take effect. For now, they just established a new foundation and some resorts (like Maledives) already apply it.

But then again, we shouldn't forget the drastic price increases in general. So points may just catch up as the redemption ratio probably became too good.

Maldives is my usual Marriott redemption and although we can argue about the value proposition, the St Regis was 118k yesterday for the same dates ;)

I was also planning to visit the JW Masai Mara this year - just checked, it's also 194-236k/night now..

I have a points reservation for the Westin Madrid for the end of April. When I did it 3 weeks ago it was 138,000 points + 160 EUR, now it's 153,000 points + 160 EUR. 10% increase, I don't think it's that bad

Yes and Yes and Yes.
And the welcome gift for elites is still 1000 or 500 points... :)

It sounds like the most impacted properties are the ones that were outliers in offering outsized value for redemptions. Unfortunately with dynamic pricing, hotel programs are slowly moving toward airlines like DL and UA in making redemption values more consistently fixed.

Without reasonable aspirational property redemptions, my loyalty to Marriott is pretty much shot. I do not squirrel away points for redemption at the Element Miami Airport.

Without “outsized value for redemptions” at aspirational properties, the loyalty game becomes little more than undervalued cashback..

DL was the leader amongst the US3 because they believed they had a better product and that people would choose them despite having a poor loyalty program. (And time has shown that it’s mostly worked.)

Marriott must feel that they have achieved such ubiquitous scale, that they also don’t need to provide outsized value with Bonvoy. Whether that is going to translate in the hotel industry (vs the airline industry), where there are more options, is to be determined.

Rather than have the discussion wander off into wider issues of loyalty programming, shall we establish whether there actually has been a step change (= overnight devaluation) in redemption rates ?

FWIW, a European property I was watching for an award redemption this summer has had the award price increase by about 10% - on each and every day - since I last looked a few days ago.

The award rates were pretty much the same every day (around 70k, they all went up to 77 or 78k), so I don't buy a 'dynamic pricing pushing up rates on peak days' explanation.

What is the average redemption value (USD per point) that you are seeing under the new award rates? I suspect that this is part of a larger effort by Marriott to realign redemption rates. Dynamic pricing isn’t just going to affect peak periods.

I booked Canary Wharf Marriott for 314,000 points for the first 10 nights of this year. Now I can’t find 10 nights for less than 444,000 points. As a leisure stayer with a tight budget I am lucky to make that amount in a year. Places that used to be 60,000 for 5 nights have doubled. And in the UK the pound is weak against the dollar. When it is strong I can make more points.