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Originally Posted by 80proofGalleyCart
(Post 36851307)
So many factors come into play that one couldn't possibly speculate without knowing when/where. Did these points redemptions dramatically increase on the 27th?
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Originally Posted by iluvdoco
(Post 36851318)
Yes, because I've been monitoring the properties for the past week and came to post my complaints on FT yesterday when I read the headlines about the devaluations.
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I was monitoring my usual family ski trip next year during the past two week. I booked 7-night using the pricing exactly same as last year. But I need one more night. They supposed to release 8 days ago. It is a Japanese hotel they always did that exact time every week. But they did skip a week. This Monday exactly Jan 27, they released two week inventory but all price increased 10%. I used more points to booked 8th day. I was lucky since I get the cheaper rate for the first 7-night. It is systemwide devaluation for good value redemption.
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Originally Posted by 80proofGalleyCart
(Post 36851335)
This incredibly specific info reminds us again this thread practically kicked off with a blog re-post as a ref :tu:
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As is usual with these "devaluations," it is a mixed bag. I usually check a few Hawaii and Florida redemptions (because I assume those are always heavily redeemed by Americans with a ton of points) as a proxy, and I am not seeing dramatic increase in average, maybe 5K or 10K points on 100K+ redemptions. It does seem like some of the more outlier value redemptions have gone up more.
What does seem to be happening, IMO, is that redemption values on average have gone up more than room rates in the past year or so. A lot of this is catch up, as room rates skyrocketed from 2021-2023 and sometimes points values didn't. |
London UK Sheraton from 70,000 to 92,000 changed yesterday = That's a whopping 31% increase
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I remembered that about a year and a half ago Sealthedealtravels figured out how to see the hidden Marriott award categories. It seems like they have updated their post now (but forgot to update the date of the publication).
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Hi it's me, author for Seal the Deal Travels!
Yes, I updated the chart to the current 2025 pricing and still working on the updates to the post and possibly be done in a few days. Some key takeaways:
Some neutral/less disappointing news:
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A few properties on my upcoming southeast asia places got devalued like crazy and i ended up booking cash or just going to hyatt. Might not make titanium this year but i could care less since im lifetime platinum, and titanium upgrades in its own have devalued a whole lot.
The dumb executives at marriott validate their own work by destroying their loyalty program... lame move IMO as I have seen $5-10M of annual credit card charges in my circle of friends get switched over to other loyalty programs. Airlines and hotels alike earn $$ selling points to cc companies and many airlines do not make $$ flying... but from selling points to credit card companies. |
Originally Posted by 80proofGalleyCart
(Post 36850845)
But you are correct. At most properties, whatever award price increase that occurred "overnight" is at most incremental. Haven't seen any "lows" completely vanish except maybe Ritz-Carlton Kyoto's 92k and under rates. I'm sure you can still get it for 98k and probably do better if you wait it out and see... it is, after all Q1 '25.
Ok, someone mentioned RC Tokyo, that does seem to have inched up across the board. Tant pis. I'd rather try Mesm next time I'm in Tokyo anyway. Trying to deduce a system-wide trend here seems an exercise in guesswork and speculation so property-specific, it seems the threads of those hotels that have shot up drastically would be more appropriate avenues for such a discussion. So just between those two the 21k I earned last week for my most recent Marriott stay is going to end up just covering the increase which is frustrating |
Is it really an across the board, unannounced, devaluation or is it that the dynamic pricing model is following the cash price trend as it would be expected to. There are lots of 'examples' in this thread (usually sample size of 1) of some of the most desirable, in demand properties, that cost more in points now on specific dates. Have the cash prices gone up as well?
Just curious as to how deep the analysis has gone by anyone across brands or geographies or is this just a case of someone kicking over the devaluation can because a particular redemption they were looking at and should have booked has now gone up in points cost? |
Originally Posted by billdokes
(Post 36852987)
Is it really an across the board, unannounced, devaluation or is it that the dynamic pricing model is following the cash price trend as it would be expected to. There are lots of 'examples' in this thread (usually sample size of 1) of some of the most desirable, in demand properties, that cost more in points now on specific dates. Have the cash prices gone up as well?
Just curious as to how deep the analysis has gone by anyone across brands or geographies or is this just a case of someone kicking over the devaluation can because a particular redemption they were looking at and should have booked has now gone up in points cost? Let us not forget that category changes used to happen yearly around this time, and Hyatt is due for a category change in the next month or two. |
While I see increases in many of the redemptions I track, I did have one fall back couple of thousands points to a level lower than I have seen for that hotel in many many months (and I track at least one a day for all my upcoming redemptions with possibility to get some points back). I think it is a combination of increase of maximal rate for a hotel compounded with demand. The outsized value hotels necessarily increase demand for redemptions nights which under the Marriott system creates increase in redemptions rates. The same logic will dictate that reduced demand will reduce the pricing (but I doubt that would actually happen).
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Originally Posted by billdokes
(Post 36852987)
Is it really an across the board, unannounced, devaluation or is it that the dynamic pricing model is following the cash price trend as it would be expected to. There are lots of 'examples' in this thread (usually sample size of 1) of some of the most desirable, in demand properties, that cost more in points now on specific dates. Have the cash prices gone up as well?
Just curious as to how deep the analysis has gone by anyone across brands or geographies or is this just a case of someone kicking over the devaluation can because a particular redemption they were looking at and should have booked has now gone up in points cost? |
Originally Posted by billdokes
(Post 36852987)
Is it really an across the board, unannounced, devaluation or is it that the dynamic pricing model is following the cash price trend as it would be expected to.
After the introduction of dynamic pricing, Bonvoy points are generally worth between $0.006 and $0.008 compared to cash rates, inclusive of taxes that would be paid on the cash rate. Properties with redemptions providing outsized value compared to that (and which another poster probably correctly pointed out, become popular for redemptions) will thus become targets for award rate increases. |
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