27 Jan : New points devaluation ?
 

It seems overnight the value of points have been cut in half, at least for the dates and properties I've checked.

For example Maldivian properties went from 100-120k/night to 198k/night…

When I look at the Maldives, I see cash rates that make points worth far more than 1-2 cents per point. If the Ritz is 4K USD per night, 198K doesn’t sound like a bad valuation (if the Maldives is something you find desirable). I see plenty of Maldives properties that aren’t the Ritz for 100K or less.

I would be curious to hear of examples that aren’t the Maldives along with the comparison to the average cash rates at these properties.

Edit to Add: I pulled up Tokyo in March, and the points amounts seem about the same, if not less, than what I was seeing last month at top properties.

It seems that the caps have increased dramatically.

https://viewfromthewing.com/bonvoyed...ng-to-members/

Some resorts still keep the old values (for now) but it’s just a question of time. The system now allows for more and at some point in time, more will be asked for.

Luckily, I just redeemed all my points.

I mean, that article with biased language didn’t seem to provide any other examples besides the JW Masai Mara.

The core information is just the increased caps - not the examples. That's why I linked it.

When looking at Bora Bora for example, the search overview now shows way higher values now (from 291k for 5 days to 363k for Westin and from 520k to 900k for St. Regis). But when actually searching for dates at a specific location, I still get offered the true rates. St. Regis asked for 2M points already before the change of caps and Westin still asks for the same rate before the change (290-300k depending on dates).

So that's why I assume it is just a matter of time until the point increases really take effect. For now, they just established a new foundation and some resorts (like Maledives) already apply it.

But then again, we shouldn't forget the drastic price increases in general. So points may just catch up as the redemption ratio probably became too good.

Maldives is my usual Marriott redemption and although we can argue about the value proposition, the St Regis was 118k yesterday for the same dates ;)

I was also planning to visit the JW Masai Mara this year - just checked, it's also 194-236k/night now..

I have a points reservation for the Westin Madrid for the end of April. When I did it 3 weeks ago it was 138,000 points + 160 EUR, now it's 153,000 points + 160 EUR. 10% increase, I don't think it's that bad

Yes and Yes and Yes.
And the welcome gift for elites is still 1000 or 500 points... :)

It sounds like the most impacted properties are the ones that were outliers in offering outsized value for redemptions. Unfortunately with dynamic pricing, hotel programs are slowly moving toward airlines like DL and UA in making redemption values more consistently fixed.

Without reasonable aspirational property redemptions, my loyalty to Marriott is pretty much shot. I do not squirrel away points for redemption at the Element Miami Airport.

Without “outsized value for redemptions” at aspirational properties, the loyalty game becomes little more than undervalued cashback..

DL was the leader amongst the US3 because they believed they had a better product and that people would choose them despite having a poor loyalty program. (And time has shown that it’s mostly worked.)

Marriott must feel that they have achieved such ubiquitous scale, that they also don’t need to provide outsized value with Bonvoy. Whether that is going to translate in the hotel industry (vs the airline industry), where there are more options, is to be determined.

Rather than have the discussion wander off into wider issues of loyalty programming, shall we establish whether there actually has been a step change (= overnight devaluation) in redemption rates ?

FWIW, a European property I was watching for an award redemption this summer has had the award price increase by about 10% - on each and every day - since I last looked a few days ago.

The award rates were pretty much the same every day (around 70k, they all went up to 77 or 78k), so I don't buy a 'dynamic pricing pushing up rates on peak days' explanation.

What is the average redemption value (USD per point) that you are seeing under the new award rates? I suspect that this is part of a larger effort by Marriott to realign redemption rates. Dynamic pricing isn’t just going to affect peak periods.

I booked Canary Wharf Marriott for 314,000 points for the first 10 nights of this year. Now I can’t find 10 nights for less than 444,000 points. As a leisure stayer with a tight budget I am lucky to make that amount in a year. Places that used to be 60,000 for 5 nights have doubled. And in the UK the pound is weak against the dollar. When it is strong I can make more points.

Cash rates are the Euro equivalent to about 500USD, so that's 0.71cpp devalued to 0.64.

The goodtime hotel in Miami went from 46,000 points per night and 184,000 points for 5 nights during Art Basel to 280,000 points or 70,000 points per night during the same period of December 2-7th, which is a massive 52.17% increase.

Great....the Hiltonification of Marriott. :rolleyes:

At least Hilton's credit card free nights are (mostly) unrestricted free nights (for now, with very limited exceptions). Soon even the Marriott/Ritz 85k FNCs are going to be just enough to cover a midrange Marriott.

Well, outside the US it's even worse. They've introduced a lower tier card with a 35k cert and upgraded the premium CC from 35k to 50k one :rolleyes:

I have a redemption in the UK that just increased by 8.5% today. Other ones I've been watching (in various locations) haven't changed.

This is part of all programs, if you can’t find value…. I’m pretty sure they still have a program which allows you to donate points to charity.

It seems like just yesterday they were hawking discounted gift cards during COVID to save a balance sheet.

It's feast or famine in this game...when they need you they need you, when they don't they don't...there were lots of good deals out there from 2008 - 2012!!

One good travel recession and they'll be back for us!

But Hilton is more generous with handing out points. Marriott is getting to Hilton-level redemption vas without any change in points earning.

Massive, widespread devaluation
 

Wow, just sad. Bonvoyed again...

Almost booked Masai Mara last Friday for January 2026. It was 720,000 for 5 nights on Friday.

Same dates are now 944,000, a 31% increase in points required.

I've got two other points bookings this year I checked, just for verification that it's across the board.

Heading to St. Regis Maldives in a few weeks. Booked base room for 520,000 points last year. Same room is now 792,000 for January 2026, a staggering 52% increase. Going to the St. George in Helsinki this summer. Booked 2 nights for 86k in peak season. Same rates are now 101,000, "only" a 17% increase.

Verification of the need to churn and burn points, but this is ridiculous. Honestly done with Marriott from a points perspective - when my current points are gone, so am I. Was literally about to get the Chase Boundless card this week. Not now.

Yup you can earn Hilton points fast.

I hope no one pre-emptively transferred points to Marriott with the Amex/Chase bonuses. I find myself staying less and less at Marriott with their games. Didn't even bother to quality for Titanium again since I never even got any benefit out of it.

I can barely find Ritz/St. Regis/Luxury Collection hotels to even spend my 85k certs on now. Majority of them are 100k + so can't even pay the difference with points since it's capped at 15k. I have the Ritz and the Brillant card so might cancel one this year.

Missed this thread and accidentally started a new one, so sorry about that if you are a mod...

Bonvoyed again - this is worst for aspirational properties it looks like. Maldives or Masai Mara? Massive devaluation. Less on the radar lower - here are the three I checked based on current bookings/bookings that now won't happen.

Almost booked Masai Mara last Friday for January 2026. It was 720,000 for 5 nights on Friday.

Same dates are now 944,000, a 31% increase in points required.

I've got two other points bookings this year I checked, just for verification that it's across the board.

Heading to St. Regis Maldives in a few weeks. Booked base room for 520,000 points last year. Same room is now 792,000 for January 2026, a staggering 52% increase. Going to the St. George in Helsinki this summer. Booked 2 nights for 86k in peak season. Same rates are now 101,000, "only" a 17% increase.

Verification of the need to churn and burn points, but this is ridiculous. Honestly done with Marriott from a points perspective - when my current points are gone, so am I. Was literally about to get the Chase Boundless card this week. Not now. Will just wait for an elevated Hilton offer.

Have a 1 night stay at Ritz Laguna. Booked it at 89k. It is now 97k so 9% increase.

Problem is, Hilton is not immune from this either. A substantial number of Hilton properties just had a roughly 10% increase a few weeks ago.

I have three points bookings out there in Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic. All have gone up slightly since I booked a couple months ago - none more than about 5%.

I am not a fan of dynamic pricing for obvious reasons, but one thing you can do is watch your bookings every month or so and often you can rebook for less. Have done that a few times in the past (with other reservations). I usually do this when I have enough points to make the new (lower points) booking before canceling the old.

This all actually makes the new Pay Yourself Back option on the Bonvoy Bold card, at $0.008/point, more appealing.

We recently stayed at the StR Maldives last week and looking at other dates further out in 2025/2026 the rates have doubled which is a major devaluation even though the cash rates have remained relatively flat.

I have bookings for LA and Phoenix coming up. No price increases in the points required. Perhaps this means I should burn, baby, burn before I run into things...

Several redemptions I've been considering are actually cheaper today than a few days ago. So it's not across the board. Seems like from the above, it's mostly high end properties that had outsized value and perhaps inflation adjusted for others. I think it's expected that redemption costs would gradually increase over time along with standard inflation in hotel prices. That said, it sucks if you've been waiting to pull the trigger and the price jumps.

I'm curious. Where are prices cheaper?

Seriously - every aspirational place I've got booked, have been looking at, and/or have booked in the last few years has gone up.

The St Regis in Florence, the Gritti Palacein Venice, the Ritz in Tokyo, all much higher.
I'd consider my Helsinki booking a bit more out there, not an aspirational property for most people.

True. But I found the Hilton increases to be more in line with inflation.

This was for the JW Marriott in Guadalajara - not really an aspirational property but it is a very solid redemption rate.

I double checked redemption rates in Helsinki, as I'll be there in May. The points price has increased a little, although I don't think by more than a thousand or so points per night. That could be related to this, or it's small enough that it's just typical ebb and flow.

It seems to be an increase in the category maximum. The rest is likely fluctuation due to dynamic pricing.

But you are correct. At most properties, whatever award price increase that occurred "overnight" is at most incremental. Haven't seen any "lows" completely vanish except maybe Ritz-Carlton Kyoto's 92k and under rates. I'm sure you can still get it for 98k and probably do better if you wait it out and see... it is, after all Q1 '25.
Ok, someone mentioned RC Tokyo, that does seem to have inched up across the board. Tant pis. I'd rather try Mesm next time I'm in Tokyo anyway.
Trying to deduce a system-wide trend here seems an exercise in guesswork and speculation so property-specific, it seems the threads of those hotels that have shot up drastically would be more appropriate avenues for such a discussion.

I have some Spring Training nights booked - I also didn't see any changes to my hotels. Looks like this may be something that's hit the top end of the aspirational properties, which still sucks since so many of us like to redeem those awards.

Phoenix in March gives you very nice CPP in the lower/middle brands but it's nothing like redeeming for Maldives.

Bonvoy is becoming more like SkyMiles. With SkyMiles, international J is mostly out of reach, but it's really convenient to redeem for domestic flights, especially in Y.