We recently stayed at the StR Maldives last week and looking at other dates further out in 2025/2026 the rates have doubled which is a major devaluation even though the cash rates have remained relatively flat.

I have bookings for LA and Phoenix coming up. No price increases in the points required. Perhaps this means I should burn, baby, burn before I run into things...

Several redemptions I've been considering are actually cheaper today than a few days ago. So it's not across the board. Seems like from the above, it's mostly high end properties that had outsized value and perhaps inflation adjusted for others. I think it's expected that redemption costs would gradually increase over time along with standard inflation in hotel prices. That said, it sucks if you've been waiting to pull the trigger and the price jumps.

I'm curious. Where are prices cheaper?

Seriously - every aspirational place I've got booked, have been looking at, and/or have booked in the last few years has gone up.

The St Regis in Florence, the Gritti Palacein Venice, the Ritz in Tokyo, all much higher.
I'd consider my Helsinki booking a bit more out there, not an aspirational property for most people.

True. But I found the Hilton increases to be more in line with inflation.

This was for the JW Marriott in Guadalajara - not really an aspirational property but it is a very solid redemption rate.

I double checked redemption rates in Helsinki, as I'll be there in May. The points price has increased a little, although I don't think by more than a thousand or so points per night. That could be related to this, or it's small enough that it's just typical ebb and flow.

It seems to be an increase in the category maximum. The rest is likely fluctuation due to dynamic pricing.

But you are correct. At most properties, whatever award price increase that occurred "overnight" is at most incremental. Haven't seen any "lows" completely vanish except maybe Ritz-Carlton Kyoto's 92k and under rates. I'm sure you can still get it for 98k and probably do better if you wait it out and see... it is, after all Q1 '25.
Ok, someone mentioned RC Tokyo, that does seem to have inched up across the board. Tant pis. I'd rather try Mesm next time I'm in Tokyo anyway.
Trying to deduce a system-wide trend here seems an exercise in guesswork and speculation so property-specific, it seems the threads of those hotels that have shot up drastically would be more appropriate avenues for such a discussion.

I have some Spring Training nights booked - I also didn't see any changes to my hotels. Looks like this may be something that's hit the top end of the aspirational properties, which still sucks since so many of us like to redeem those awards.

Phoenix in March gives you very nice CPP in the lower/middle brands but it's nothing like redeeming for Maldives.

Bonvoy is becoming more like SkyMiles. With SkyMiles, international J is mostly out of reach, but it's really convenient to redeem for domestic flights, especially in Y.

Some of my local hotels still show good value per point, but wondering if I should just convert all my Marriott points into United Mileage points instead?

No those are just as prone to devaluations, If you have less than a million points its not worth worrying about the lost value, if you have more just make a booking and spend them.

Based on what evidence provided in this thread of any meaningful devaluation to award nights that you should care about -- when you've already noted hotels in your scope haven't budged?

Well I don't just stay at my local hotels. For my planned overseas trips this year, I have noticed devaluations and generally poor points redemptions.

So many factors come into play that one couldn't possibly speculate without knowing when/where. Did these points redemptions dramatically increase on the 27th?