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Let’s talk about alternatives to the SPG Amex after the massive Marriott devaluation

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Let’s talk about alternatives to the SPG Amex after the massive Marriott devaluation

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Old Apr 23, 2018, 7:03 am
  #151  
 
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Originally Posted by bgriff
  • Similarly, I very rarely manage to build up a "beyond immediate needs"-size balance of SPG/Marriott points, so I use them carefully, and often choose to pay cash for hotels instead of using points for personal travel when the value of a particular redemption doesn't meet my hurdle rate. So I could probably manage to make sure that 2 Marriott points per dollar continues to be worth at least 2% back for me (though probably never too much more than 2% back, either). For someone who either can't be bothered to pay that much attention, or who builds up a large balance of points on a lot of regular paid hotel stays and thus tends to use them indiscriminately because they just have so many, even a 2% cash back card like the Citi Double Cash might ultimately offer a better value.
For you to achieve similar post the 33% devaluation (when the card earns only 2x as opposed to the current 3x) you will need to get 33% more in terms of redemption. SPG points used to be worth 2.7 cents per (and Marriott .009). Post Aug 1 - you're earning 1/3 less. Which means you'd have to get 1/3 more in redemption to be a wash. That would mean redeeming SPG points at 3.6 cents per. I've been an SPG member since 1999. While one can get 3.6 cents per sometimes if one is diligent, it is no guarantee. Usually it occurs via C&P and/or at low priced properties that cost 3/4k per night with weekends reduced. AND let's remember, all this assumes the award chart stays the same (i.e., hotels aren't devalued significantly when it is released). Surely that is no sure thing. I'd say - status quo on everyday SPG spend post Aug 1 is hard to make a case for, even in your situation.
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 7:35 am
  #152  
 
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the new SPG "luxury" card will offer platinum status for 75K/year spend, and I am pretty sure they will offer "upgrades" to their new card from your existing SPG card.
Let's say I will have spent 50K this year by the time of this "upgrade". Does it mean that (once I upgrade in August) I will only need to spend an extra 25 K to have it made? Or the clock resets at the time of this upgrade? Anyone has any idea about that?
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 8:08 am
  #153  
 
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Originally Posted by in4tar
the new SPG "luxury" card will offer platinum status for 75K/year spend, and I am pretty sure they will offer "upgrades" to their new card from your existing SPG card.
Let's say I will have spent 50K this year by the time of this "upgrade". Does it mean that (once I upgrade in August) I will only need to spend an extra 25 K to have it made? Or the clock resets at the time of this upgrade? Anyone has any idea about that?
Seems unlikely. The card hasn't been issued yet and comes with a $450 af. I'd imagine clock starts when you've been approved for the new card and agree to that hefty af.
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 8:33 am
  #154  
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Originally Posted by in4tar
the new SPG "luxury" card will offer platinum status for 75K/year spend, and I am pretty sure they will offer "upgrades" to their new card from your existing SPG card.
Let's say I will have spent 50K this year by the time of this "upgrade". Does it mean that (once I upgrade in August) I will only need to spend an extra 25 K to have it made? Or the clock resets at the time of this upgrade? Anyone has any idea about that?
It's question 11 in the Wiki in this thread, where the Lurkers are answering. So I'd keep an eye on it there.

Originally Posted by TravelinSperry
For you to achieve similar post the 33% devaluation (when the card earns only 2x as opposed to the current 3x) you will need to get 33% more in terms of redemption. SPG points used to be worth 2.7 cents per (and Marriott .009). Post Aug 1 - you're earning 1/3 less. Which means you'd have to get 1/3 more in redemption to be a wash. That would mean redeeming SPG points at 3.6 cents per. I've been an SPG member since 1999. While one can get 3.6 cents per sometimes if one is diligent, it is no guarantee. Usually it occurs via C&P and/or at low priced properties that cost 3/4k per night with weekends reduced. AND let's remember, all this assumes the award chart stays the same (i.e., hotels aren't devalued significantly when it is released). Surely that is no sure thing. I'd say - status quo on everyday SPG spend post Aug 1 is hard to make a case for, even in your situation.
So ... what's your point? Earning 3 Marriott points per dollar on all spend on the SPG Amex is dead as of August. The question is what to do next. You don't "need" to make up that lost 33% because that lost 33% doesn't exist any more. So you need to choose the new card that gives you the best return.

If you're eligible for the 3 points on all spend for a year offer, if you also hold a premium UR card, and if UR->Marriott 1:1 points transfers remain in place, then the CFU gives you a year of reprieve -- you can continue to earn 3 Marriott points per dollar on all spend, same as today. (Though those 3 UR points per dollar can potentially be worth even more than 3 Marriott points per dollar depending what you value and what you use them for.)

Once that's gone, the question is, is 2 Marriott points worth more than your next-best option? So what are you proposing is the next-best option? You can easily make a case that 1.5 points per dollar on the CFU *can* be worth more than 2 Marriott points, but I explained in my post why personally I might view the Marriott points as worth more.
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 11:10 am
  #155  
 
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Originally Posted by bgriff
If you're not 100% sold on the CSR annual fee, you could also just go for the CFU 3% for a year bonus offer and accumulate points on that card. It will be just as good as the CSR for travel and dining for that first year, and much better for everything else. The only downside is you can't transfer direct to airlines/hotel points from the CFU, but you can build up miles, and when the year is up or you're ready to transfer, whichever comes first, you can then apply to the CSR and it's easy to transfer your miles within Chase from the CFU card to the CSR card.

So, it sounds like maybe the Platinum is not really worth it, or at best only marginally worth it, for you. Given the temptation that it might create to do irrational things like pay extra to fly Delta just to use a lounge, it might be best to stay away.
After thinking about it overnight, I came to a very similar conclusion. Great minds and all .

Instead of jumping into two programs with overlapping benefits, but completely separate points programs, I can just upgrade to the new SPG Luxury Amex, and get the new CFU.

The FU returns less on Amazon than the Amazon Visa, but more on everything else (for the first year). I get Priority Pass with the Amex, so I can see how much I like and use that benefit. And I have safe harbor for a year, to see how the merger shakes out.

I don't think the Platinum is for me, at least this year. I think that a year from now I'll have a better idea of what I actually use, as opposed to aspire to, and can adjust accordingly.

Does that make sense?
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 11:13 am
  #156  
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Well, I'm sure this: https://members.marriott.com/tophotels/
is being discussed in many threads, but in its relevance for this thread, it does make me worried about whether the SPG/Marriott cards will have any value for non-bonus spend in the future. I'm disappointed in particular by how many SPG Cat 5 hotels are moving up to the 50K Marriott points level (and how few SPG Cat 6 hotels are moving down).

From this it definitely doesn't look like one should expect 2 points/dollar on the Marriott/SPG cards to exceed the value of a 2% cash back card very often.

Which to me is mainly frustrating because there just aren't many great options left to earn free hotel nights on credit card spend. Earning Hyatt points via UR is about the only particularly high-value opportunity left, but Hyatts can only take you so far.
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 11:25 am
  #157  
 
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Originally Posted by surfmonkey89
Thank you for sharing all of this - it really was tremendously helpful. I guess I’ll share a bit about where I am, both to reciprocate and to get opinions from others.

Currently: SPG Amex for 5yrs, Marriott Rewards for going on 3. Gold on both (via linking), and I doubt I’ll ever get close enough or care enough to go for Platinum anything.

Usage: Love Starwood, both for airline miles, offers, and the occasional trip destination. Been using SPG Amex as daily spend with Marriott as Visa backup, but recently switched the to Amazon Prime Visa for the 5% cash back on Amazon & Whole Foods (which is nice, but I’m not wedded to). Got the MR mostly for the free night, which I have a use for every year.

Going forward: I’ve been doing a bit more traveling, and would like to do even more. As a result of that (and this merger craziness) I’m learning a lot about various perks I never knew about or used (even wrt my own cards/accounts). As a result, I’m ready to make the jump to a premium card.

The luxury Amex is interesting for someone coming from SPG basic such as myself. I get to stay in my programs, a $300 credit that I should be able to achieve, Priority Pass access and PreCheck and Global entry. Seems like a pretty nice way to ease into this world. An added bonus is that I can pretty much keep doing what I’ve been doing, and wait and see how everything shakes out next year. New MR card isn’t worth it to me, and my current MR will go in the drawer.

The Amex Platinum has a great airline benefit, but I think I’d have a hard time meeting all of the requirements that everyone just tosses aside to say “It’s really only $150 per year”. But, the Delta and Centurion club access is appealing, as is Starwood Gold Elite. If they keep that, I’d consider it, but unless I’m missing something obvious (let me know), this isn’t as appealing as the Luxury upgrade.

CSR sounds like a great option for my Visa backup. PP, GE, etc are redundant with the Amex, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Tentative plan:
- upgrade to the Luxury Amex, use up the $300 credit on travel and take advantage of 6x on Starriott spend
- After the $300 travel credit gets met, get the CSR. Get the 50K signup bonus, use it until $300 credit on travel is met, then move it to Amex backup and start accumulating different rewards as a hedge
- re-evaluate in a year to see what *actually* happened with this merger

Does that make sense? Am I missing something obvious, especially with the Amex Platinum? Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
If you are just going to get the CSR for the bonus and use it as a backup, why not get the CSP? Same bonus, same transfer partners, smaller annual fee (waived the first year), and no fee for additional users.
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 11:34 am
  #158  
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Originally Posted by bgriff
I've had the Platinum card for a decade and it doesn't even sit in my wallet -- it sits in my travel bag so I can pull it out when needed to get into an airport lounge, but that's about the only time it sees the light of day outside of pulling it out for the digits when booking an airfare online. It's not a good card for everyday purchases.

Plus if you want a flashy card that looks impressive when you use it at dinner with friends or whatever, I'm not sure that the Platinum card is really it. The design is kind of stodgy, even with the metal card, and so many much-less-premium cards have called themselves "platinum" for so long now ("Visa Platinum" is a mid-level card category) that most people don't realize the Amex Platinum is anything special unless they themselves already have it.

When I first got the CSP 3-4 years ago, people were so impressed with the metal card ... many friends, cashiers and waiters commented on it. With the CSR now, no one does, I think part because the CSR has become insanely common in New York; having a metal card definitely does not make you stand out any more. That said I do think the CSR is a sharper-looking card than the Platinum.
I am with you on the Platinum card. Only comes out in airports although in my case it is pretty much of a free card. Between the airline credit, the uber credit and the Schwab credit I think the value is there solely for lounge access. Last week I needed a quick dinner in MIA and had a perfectly pleasant meal with a couple glasses of wine for free which would have cost me at least 50 bucks at Shulas across the concourse.
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 11:37 am
  #159  
 
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Originally Posted by Cledaybuck
If you are just going to get the CSR for the bonus and use it as a backup, why not get the CSP? Same bonus, same transfer partners, smaller annual fee (waived the first year), and no fee for additional users.
That’s a fair question. For now, I think the CFU is the better choice for me, because I will be able to get 3% cash back for the first year. I can get a nice return, without committing to UR at all. If I decide to leave Starriott altogether, I’ll get the Reserve. If I want to hedge, I can get the Preferred and move all my FU points to UR. If I’m happy with Starriott, I’ll continue to use that with either the FU or Amazon Prime Visa.

Today’s hotel announcement doesn’t give me the warm fuzzies, so we’ll see. I’m also a little concerned that Marriott lets the overall experience degrade (both customer and at the properties), which is something I won’t know for sure until some time has passed.
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 12:41 pm
  #160  
 
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33% devaluation on earnings... and now a clear devaluation on awards as well. https://members.marriott.com/tophotels/

July 31 will be the last day I spend a $ on non-stay spend with my SPG Amex.
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 12:58 pm
  #161  
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Originally Posted by TravelinSperry
33% devaluation on earnings... and now a clear devaluation on awards as well. https://members.marriott.com/tophotels/

July 31 will be the last day I spend a $ on non-stay spend with my SPG Amex.
Since it is the whole point of this thread, would you care to share where you are planning to shift spend to instead?
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 1:04 pm
  #162  
 
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Originally Posted by bgriff
Since it is the whole point of this thread, would you care to share where you are planning to shift spend to instead?
I did already upthread. See post #115
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 1:42 pm
  #163  
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Originally Posted by TravelinSperry
I did already upthread. See post #115
Thanks, sorry I hadn't seen that you had already shared.

The Hilton card is interesting, especially for the Diamond status, but the return on spend is ultimately nothing special. And for me the idea of taking on a third $450+ card just feels absurd.

I am also torn because at the end of the day I really like a lot of SPG's hotels, and while every chain has its range of variance, SPG's brands are just more premium than Hilton's. The typical breakfast and club lounge offerings at a Sheraton are better than those of a Hilton-brand hotel, for example, and those of a Westin are significantly better, especially outside North America. (I haven't stayed at a Conrad or Waldorf, which I assume are a step up, but their footprints are much smaller than that of Westin.)

It feels like defeat, but for people who don't need more airline miles (or UR/MR points to be converted to airline miles), a 2% cash back card might offer the best return toward decent hotel stays. In theory CFU points moved to the CSR can get you a return of 2.25% toward travel spend, but booking hotels through the Chase portal loses the ability to claim hotel points and elite benefits (or the ability to book through Virtuoso/FHR), so that doesn't really work as an option for hotel bookings for me.
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Old Apr 23, 2018, 1:52 pm
  #164  
 
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Originally Posted by bgriff
Thanks, sorry I hadn't seen that you had already shared.

The Hilton card is interesting, especially for the Diamond status, but the return on spend is ultimately nothing special. And for me the idea of taking on a third $450+ card just feels absurd.

I am also torn because at the end of the day I really like a lot of SPG's hotels, and while every chain has its range of variance, SPG's brands are just more premium than Hilton's. The typical breakfast and club lounge offerings at a Sheraton are better than those of a Hilton-brand hotel, for example, and those of a Westin are significantly better, especially outside North America. (I haven't stayed at a Conrad or Waldorf, which I assume are a step up, but their footprints are much smaller than that of Westin.)

It feels like defeat, but for people who don't need more airline miles (or UR/MR points to be converted to airline miles), a 2% cash back card might offer the best return toward decent hotel stays. In theory CFU points moved to the CSR can get you a return of 2.25% toward travel spend, but booking hotels through the Chase portal loses the ability to claim hotel points and elite benefits (or the ability to book through Virtuoso/FHR), so that doesn't really work as an option for hotel bookings for me.
The return on Aspire everyday spend is 1.87% (vs a 2% cashback card). So you are correct, nothing overly special on everyday spend. But the return on air/car/restaurant is 4.37%, beating all but CSR. And of course one gets Diamond status and amazing return on in Hilton hotel stays. As for af, the free weekend night and $250 airline credit will wipe out the af.

But I agree with you - if this were my 3rd $450 card... it'd be hard to take, even if I wiped out the af on all of them. Something psychological at play there, since really we shouldn't care what we pay as long as the net result is $0 or less. I expect to apply for the SPG Luxury card when it arrives as the free night & $300 hotel credit more than pay for the af. So even just for in-hotel Starriott stays and those two perks, it's worth it. So I'll have 2 $450 cards later this year. Never had one of them before and I'll soon have two
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Old Apr 24, 2018, 7:46 am
  #165  
 
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I have both the MR Visa and SPG Amex personal cards. I got the MR Visa to bolster my LT points in MR to get LT status. I got the SPG Amex initially to get LTG status by getting Gold status via spend (had the nights, but was short a year on status). After I got LTG, I have used the SPG Amex to generate points to transfer to LH for use upgrading (not the best use of points, but better than the UA upgrade options) my once a year business flight to Germany. Given the devaluation of the SPG Amex and the similarity in cards, I will likely drop the MR Visa. Most of my daily spend is on my CSP card (might consider going to CSR). Keeping the SPG Amex keeps an Amex card in my portfolio and I like that. Also, the 35K over 25K annual free night is worth the $10 (at least I think that it is). I don't see using 2 free night certs each year. At least, the MR Visa cert being Cat 1-4 was a big barrier to using it. I'll have to see if the new 25K/35K certs are easier to use, but we usually want to stay in nicer properties (or in cities which even the Courtyard hotels were higher than Cat 4).
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