Originally Posted by
bgriff
- Similarly, I very rarely manage to build up a "beyond immediate needs"-size balance of SPG/Marriott points, so I use them carefully, and often choose to pay cash for hotels instead of using points for personal travel when the value of a particular redemption doesn't meet my hurdle rate. So I could probably manage to make sure that 2 Marriott points per dollar continues to be worth at least 2% back for me (though probably never too much more than 2% back, either). For someone who either can't be bothered to pay that much attention, or who builds up a large balance of points on a lot of regular paid hotel stays and thus tends to use them indiscriminately because they just have so many, even a 2% cash back card like the Citi Double Cash might ultimately offer a better value.
For you to achieve similar post the 33% devaluation (when the card earns only 2x as opposed to the current 3x) you will need to get 33% more in terms of redemption. SPG points used to be worth 2.7 cents per (and Marriott .009). Post Aug 1 - you're earning 1/3 less. Which means you'd have to get 1/3 more in redemption to be a wash. That would mean redeeming SPG points at 3.6 cents per. I've been an SPG member since 1999. While one can get 3.6 cents per sometimes if one is diligent, it is no guarantee. Usually it occurs via C&P and/or at low priced properties that cost 3/4k per night with weekends reduced. AND let's remember, all this assumes the award chart stays the same (i.e., hotels aren't devalued significantly when it is released). Surely that is no sure thing. I'd say - status quo on everyday SPG spend post Aug 1 is hard to make a case for, even in your situation.