just to close the loop on this and answer my own question and give someone else a DP, I had no issue getting a card but YMMV

ha, if only - 5x on spend that’s not out of my pocket would be a dream

My PayPal account got shutdown, ostensibly because I used their bill pay product to pay two of my credit cards using a debit card. They sent me a note that suggested I violated their terms of service, but I don't think it's against their terms of service to make a $40k card payment. Why offer the product or allow payments of that size if they find them problematic? Luckily I hear there are ways to respawn pretty quickly.

Indeed when the payment and the source are a problem combo, the PayPal transaction simply does not proceed. I've experienced that myself. PP is known to avoid large amounts though. So that was likely the real reason of your shutdown.

A $40,000 pp payment definitely raises a few red flags. It says the average payment is between $1-4000. I wonder if the payments were broken up if it would have been better?

Probably worse as PP would have considered this as structuring.
What I don't understand is why use a bank debit card when you could just as easily attached your bank account to PP. This would have permitted PP to verify you and your bank account for Treasury ML purposes.
I presume that you had loaded the bank debit card with funds from MSing activities but PP wouldn't have cared where the money came from if you had used the actual account and not its debit card (although TBH, I cannot tell the difference between the two except debit cards may have max limits on single withdrawals). Only your bank would have taken on the origins of funds responsibility.

I can't give you too many clues other then to study the Durbin Amendment.

Thoughts on the risk of shutdown for my stupid mistakes recently? Just had 2 payments returned - 1 on each of my CICs. Linked new external account by logging in to pay but it seemed like Chase's system defaulted to treating those accounts as Checking accounts (they were Savings) and so the external banks rejected the payments (TD and WF).

-1st account: 5k CL, 3.5k payment rejected, 1.7k ODOM pending purchase (which would've maxed the CL). Chase rep didn't allow me to re-pay the 3.5k until the full payment is returned, so I paid off the 1.7k using a Chase Savings account. Original statement due date was 8/2
-2nd account: 8.8k CL, 3.6k payment rejected, no pending charges. Statement due date 8/15, gonna pay it once the returned payment hits the account.

Both of them are 2yo+ accounts, but I've been doing some ODOM V/MC GC MS on both of them ~10k on the 1st, ~16k on the 2nd so far this year. (1.8k-3.6k on each card almost every statement when there's an ODOM promo the past few months)

4 open personal Chase cards w 16.5k total CL (IHG, CFU, 2x UA Gateways); 23.3k total biz Chase CL spread across 2 CIC, 2 CIP. Also have 2 closed CIU, 1 closed SW biz, 1 closed UA biz. Total CL is under 50% reported income.
I'm 3/24, most recent Chase approval was CIP approved last Fri 8/2 (really bad timing I know!), and before that was CIP in July 2023 - denied on recon for CIU in Oct, Nov, Dec, April lol.

Please let me know your thoughts? Should I proactively close those 2 accounts before they shut me down? Transfer some CL over to the 5.5k one so it isn't close to maxing out? Try to speed run that new CIP (I haven't received the card yet) to get the 120k if they're gonna shut me down? Thanks in advance for any thoughts on advice!

Close to zero, but try to avoid making repeat mistakes.

dp removed

There is a chance. You are putting serious eyes on your accounts.

I got a little too spendy on my wyndham biz card, points usually show up a week ago but not this month. I only have 1 other generic personal card. I'm tempted to take the nuclear option. Thoughts? lol

Can you please elaborate on "a little too spendy"? That doesn't give us enough info to really tell you anything. Also its only been a week there are sometimes delays.

Spendy probably means he bought too many GCs on his credit card which is serviced by Barclays Bank.

There are plenty of DPs out there of Barclays not being thrilled by MS activity but I have not heard of a shut down being announced by the denial of reward points. Probably just delayed posting.

on my very meager credit line, I've done only a couple months of 1.1x, 1.3x of my limit. This statement I meant to stay under 2x but with pending charges ended up crossing 2x just a smidge. I've made no attempt at obfuscating what I'm buying, and it's all earning 8x. Made one new charge on my current statement and everything seems normal. The only real DP in any of these threads is the guy who cycled nearly a mil over a year. Anyways, I accept my role as guinea pig.

From what you stated if you were able to make a new charge you may be ok. Sometimes they take a moment to process higher X spend (5x-8x) and that goes for a lot of cards. Maybe pause for a moment on your 8x until everything settles in a week or 2.