Rivarix

Thanks for the info! I should've asked this question much much earlier but now that I know, it seems that AY99 must be avoided (if one wants to arrive in HKG in a somewhat timely manner). It's just that AY101 is harder to catch ex- YYZ/JFK. With AY99 I can leave JFK/YYZ late in the evening (w/ BA and connecting in LHR).

Does anyone know if AY planning to (eventually) get a spare A359 to deal with these tech issue? It seems that unless there's a competitor on this route, this is something that AY is not planning to resolve ... like ever?

ffay005

AY's longhaul operations have been growing at a steady speed, yet the problem with AY69/99 persists. So far, they haven't felt the need to keep spare planes, and I can't see that changing anytime soon. Personally, knowing its history, I don't book AY99 and discourage others from doing so, too.

r2d2

Not even AY knows yet. Aircraft are ordered years ahead and the airlines don't know what the world will be like when the planes are finally delivered. Their network planning has to live with the planes they have on a much shorter term process. If the business is good, they want to use all the available planes.

An extra A359 would cost a lot of money so with a small fleet it's probably cheaper to pay the EC261 compensations every now and then. As the fleet grows the number of tech incidents grows as well, so the business case for getting a spare becomes better.

If AY will at some point add these midnight departures to other destinations doable with a 24-hour rotation, they could pass the problem to other destinations as well so then AY99 wouldn't be hit that often. They already have BKK, but that's operated with an A333.

HJP

3 hour delay is enough for EC261 - so your flights should be eligible for compensation.

https://www.finnair.com/int/gb/infor...vices/feedback

intuition

This.

Very very very unlikely AY will ever fix "the problem".

No airline keeps a spare, it is just that airlines of size have so many different route-lengths served by widebodies. Airlines that has 100's of WB, going in/out 24h a day on routes with turn-arounds of 4-36 hours 'always' have a plane sitting on the ground at home base.

Finnair is extremely fond of the "bank system" and 24h rotations, ie all widebodies leaves and arrives HEL at the same time of day. Besides, Finnair is not and will not be an airline of size in the foreseeable future. The only slack in the system is the bird sitting in HKG 9 h. (and maybe the one in SIN 7h).

Therefore it is safe to say AY99 excessive delay will be an perpetually reoccurring event. If arriving in HKG on time is important, don't book it. From OCT, SK will offer CPH-HKG with almost identical schedule as Finnair. Book SAS and then tell Finnair what you did. They may not care enough about delaying 300 pax a few times a month, but handing over business to SK may hurt the company pride

intuition

AY99 is still performing on a industry-worst basis. Here are the summarized stats for AY99 for the period 20180415--0615

AY99 lands without any delay a whooping 21% of the time. If "on-time" is defined as "14 minutes or less delayed", the on-time stats jump to 69%. Still 31% of flights, ie once every third day on average, are delayed and on average over one hour. Worst delay in this period was 9,5h delay.

(source: Flightstats)

OH-LGG

Again 99 is morning departure.

OH-LWG which caused 4 x NRT cancellation, finally arrived HEL but cant make it to HKG tonight.

Jainzar

But aren't delays of up to 30 min or an hour not part of the design of AY99? I mean it is more the norm than an exception that at least one flight of the many late European/Nordic is not on time. If you have a connecting pax to AY99 on that flight you will highly likely get a delay.

intuition

They are touting an small airport and 40 minutes connections. Tonight, of all flights scheduled to arrive at least 40 minutes before AY99 departure only DUB (STA 23:05, ATA 23:10) and BRU (STA 22:45, ATA 23:15) flights are delayed beyond the 40 minute limit.

But you are right that the last shorthaul wave usually has a bit of delay. And it is very true that AY69 / AY99 seems to have a departure delay "built-in". It rarely departs on time. But I think this has not so much to do with late incomings as it has with generous blocktime, favourable winds and the mindset of Finnair operations. I've been on the plane quite a few times when boarding is complete but departure still is delayed.

Many times they wait because they don't want to be early at HKG. Airspace is congested and they rather not be circling. But many times it is about mindset.
No one cares about delays for this flight, as delays does not propagate.



Adding 2 more weeks of flights since last post only worsens the statistics. Average delay is now 67 minutes and only 47% of flights arrive less than 15 minutes delayed. (01-May-2018 to 30-Jun-2018)


It is so poor performance that flighstats graphics broke. They are showing 5 stars because they didn't expect a flight to exist with 0,0 GPA

intuition

In comparison:
SK963 (ARN-HKG) is no star. On time only 55% of the time, but average delay 32 minutes. Worst delay 240 minutes, but that is not SOP.
CX246 (CPH-HKG) is better On time 69% of the time and with average delay only 20 minutes. No delay longer than 48 minutes.

While no one likes a delay, these two alternatives are extremely much more reliable.

fakecd

i tend to take different view... such a high chance of 600eur back my way with eu261. i am based in hk so i learned next time i must choose that flight

intuition

It is an interesting take.

There is such a strong pattern it can easily be taken advantage of. A HEL based flyer with lots of time on his hands could easily pinpoint the days with a major delay. If he can know early enough to score a ticket on AY99 that day, he will then have a higly subsidised (even free) flying.

The crux of the matter is to get AY to readily pay EU261 compensation, but that is a whole different kettle of fish.

OH-LGG

Last minute ticket HEL-HKG under 600€ is almost impossible, And added with stupid Sat/Sun rules and accommodation in HKG, I guess playing EuroJackpot is more useful than AY EU261 tricks to HKG.

intuition

True, last minute is hillariously expensive. Perhaps the trick is to buy a flexible ticket and move it to a delayed departure in order to qualify for EU261.

But my point wasn't to make money, it was to fly cheaper. With a decent price and 600€ back, your status card could come more cheaply. But getting the compensations might be more difficult than booking the delayed flight.

Jainzar

Compared with a J offer or a Value ticket this still sounds like a very bad deal for the points. Even 600€ per direction would not make that reasonable.