Kiss my Big Booty Delta
Jan 7, 2003, 5:37 am
#811
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2000
Programs: DL FO, Marriott Gold, SPG Gold
Posts: 12,003
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by obscure2k:
I call it HUBRIS.</font>
I call it HUBRIS.</font>
n.
Overbearing pride or presumption; arrogance: There is no safety in unlimited technological hubris (McGeorge Bundy).
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[Greek, excessive pride, wanton violence. See ud- in Indo-European Roots.]
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hubristic (-brstk) adj.
hubristically adv.
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obscure2k, what a great word!
Jan 7, 2003, 6:33 am
#812
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Northern VA
Posts: 78
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Golfsquid:
. I fly them once in a while (on routes where they have one of the only nonstop flights) and I won't use them as a regular carrier because of what they did to the Medallion program. But I think ALL AIRLINES are going to do the same thing within the year (or two).</font>
. I fly them once in a while (on routes where they have one of the only nonstop flights) and I won't use them as a regular carrier because of what they did to the Medallion program. But I think ALL AIRLINES are going to do the same thing within the year (or two).</font>
I seriously doubt other airlines will be that stupid. I'm quite sure all of them are getting comp requests from DL elites. As I've stated before, I have already qualified for AAdvantage Gold using the challenge program offered to me, just from two transcons this month. It's just a matter of waiting for the miles to be credited. I explained to AA when I made the request why I was going to them and leaving DL. AA, NW, CO, etc don't have to be marketing geniuses to realize why they are all of a sudden picking up business from former screwed-over DL FOs and GMs. They're not about to kill the goose that's laying the golden eggs by drinking the same kool aid the DL marketing mavens are.
Jan 7, 2003, 7:14 am
#813
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: SAN Diego (Hillcrest); formerly LEXington, KY; still like the nym
Programs: DL Platinum; Marriott Lifetime Platinum; married to Hilton Elite
Posts: 3,028
ptcflyer: a very cogent analysis.
Yes, I believe there are spreadsheets at Delta predicting success from these moves. (Those of you who work with spreadsheets know that their success is based on their assumptions and the validity of the data.)
Remember, folks, the key to airline profitibility is not just cost per available seat mile (casm), or revenue per available seat mile (rasm), but the difference between the two. Generally, rasm > casm = profit, casm > rasm = loss.
We will be able to see if the new first class /upgrade pricing strategy is working when the more detailed financials come out for the first quarter and beyond.
Almost certainly, Delta will be able to lower casm for awhile. The number to watch is rasm.
-- If rasm increases, Delta has guessed correctly, and we are willing collectively, grumblingly, to pay more under their new rules.
-- If it stays stagnant, and Delta sufficiently lowers casm, they will do okay, even if they haven't changed our collective purchasing behavior.
-- If it falls, but they can still lower casm sufficiently faster, they will do okay.
-- Only if rasm falls as fast as casm, or faster, does Delta stay in the soup.
But it may take a year or more to play out, as Delta has cannily bribed a lot of PMs into staying just another year in hopes that things will turn around, and expects to bribe some number of GMs into hoping to amass a huge upgrade warchest and graduate to PM.
But watch those rasms and casms! Over the next 15 months, they will tell the tale....
------------------
"Service" should be a noun, not a verb.
e-mail address under profile
Yes, I believe there are spreadsheets at Delta predicting success from these moves. (Those of you who work with spreadsheets know that their success is based on their assumptions and the validity of the data.)
Remember, folks, the key to airline profitibility is not just cost per available seat mile (casm), or revenue per available seat mile (rasm), but the difference between the two. Generally, rasm > casm = profit, casm > rasm = loss.
We will be able to see if the new first class /upgrade pricing strategy is working when the more detailed financials come out for the first quarter and beyond.
Almost certainly, Delta will be able to lower casm for awhile. The number to watch is rasm.
-- If rasm increases, Delta has guessed correctly, and we are willing collectively, grumblingly, to pay more under their new rules.
-- If it stays stagnant, and Delta sufficiently lowers casm, they will do okay, even if they haven't changed our collective purchasing behavior.
-- If it falls, but they can still lower casm sufficiently faster, they will do okay.
-- Only if rasm falls as fast as casm, or faster, does Delta stay in the soup.
But it may take a year or more to play out, as Delta has cannily bribed a lot of PMs into staying just another year in hopes that things will turn around, and expects to bribe some number of GMs into hoping to amass a huge upgrade warchest and graduate to PM.
But watch those rasms and casms! Over the next 15 months, they will tell the tale....
------------------
"Service" should be a noun, not a verb.
e-mail address under profile
Jan 7, 2003, 7:52 am
#814
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Boston, MA
Programs: Delta PM, United Premier Executive, AirTran Elite, SPG Platinum, Hyatt Diamond, Hilton Gold VIP, Her
Posts: 364
I'm surprised that nobody came up with a new slogan like...
Delta No More Lines
(B/c all of our passengers now fly other airlines)
Delta No More Lines
(B/c all of our passengers now fly other airlines)
Jan 7, 2003, 7:55 am
#815
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: SEA - DL DM/2MM, *A Gold, SPG Lifetime Plat, some other car and hotel stuff
Posts: 5,649
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by LINDEGR:
The goal seems to be to "encourage" PMs to continue buying K and higher fares.</font>
The goal seems to be to "encourage" PMs to continue buying K and higher fares.</font>
Jan 7, 2003, 8:26 am
#816
Moderator: Hilton Honors forums
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Marietta, Georgia, United States
Posts: 25,006
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by andymo99:
Recently, one poster shared his very well-written (and appropriately praised) letter to DL. I can't find the posting and forget who wrote it.</font>
Recently, one poster shared his very well-written (and appropriately praised) letter to DL. I can't find the posting and forget who wrote it.</font>
Jan 7, 2003, 9:53 am
#817
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: SEA - DL DM/2MM, *A Gold, SPG Lifetime Plat, some other car and hotel stuff
Posts: 5,649
Jan 7, 2003, 12:39 pm
#818
Moderator: Hilton Honors forums
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Marietta, Georgia, United States
Posts: 25,006
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by andymo99:
Yes, Canarsie. Here is the link. The poster was midamerica77.
Thanks for helping.</font>
Yes, Canarsie. Here is the link. The poster was midamerica77.
Thanks for helping.</font>
Could you answer a quick question for me, please? I would have put the link http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum21/HTML/008728.html in like you did for everybody's convenience, but I could not get that information. All I see when I am anywhere in the Delta forum is http://www.flyertalk.com/milesfr.shtml at the top of my browser window.
How does one get that specific forum address information, if I may ask?
I apologize in advance for straying off the topic or if the answer already exists somewhere else.
Jan 7, 2003, 1:06 pm
#819
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: SEA - DL DM/2MM, *A Gold, SPG Lifetime Plat, some other car and hotel stuff
Posts: 5,649
Canarsie, instead of left clicking on the links to go to the thread, right click on the link and click "properties" from the menu. Then copy and paste the detailed URL.
Also, to learn how to make a nice hyperlink (rather than just putting in an ugly address), click on *UBB Code is ON to the left of where you type your postings to FT. That will teach you how to link as I did rather than just like this: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ubbcode.html
[This message has been edited by andymo99 (edited 01-07-2003).]
Also, to learn how to make a nice hyperlink (rather than just putting in an ugly address), click on *UBB Code is ON to the left of where you type your postings to FT. That will teach you how to link as I did rather than just like this: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ubbcode.html
[This message has been edited by andymo99 (edited 01-07-2003).]
Jan 7, 2003, 1:50 pm
#820
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: MA
Programs: DL DM/2MM Marriott Platinum, HH Diamond,
Posts: 8,907
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Golfsquid:
C'mon. What would you say if you were with Delta? "Fly with us and we will not reward frequent flyers"? Of course they have to say this nonsense.
As far as I can tell, Delta is punishing low fare flyers who log in more miles than high fare flyers who log in fewer miles. While this makes some sense (rewarding those who generate the most profit), it is shortsighted. I fly them once in a while (on routes where they have one of the only nonstop flights) and I won't use them as a regular carrier because of what they did to the Medallion program. But I think ALL AIRLINES are going to do the same thing within the year (or two).</font>
C'mon. What would you say if you were with Delta? "Fly with us and we will not reward frequent flyers"? Of course they have to say this nonsense.
As far as I can tell, Delta is punishing low fare flyers who log in more miles than high fare flyers who log in fewer miles. While this makes some sense (rewarding those who generate the most profit), it is shortsighted. I fly them once in a while (on routes where they have one of the only nonstop flights) and I won't use them as a regular carrier because of what they did to the Medallion program. But I think ALL AIRLINES are going to do the same thing within the year (or two).</font>
Jan 7, 2003, 1:53 pm
#821
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: DFW - DL MM/GM, AA 5MM/EXP, MR LT Titanium
Posts: 832
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by LexPassenger:
...Almost certainly, Delta will be able to lower casm for awhile. The number to watch is rasm.
-- If rasm increases, Delta has guessed correctly, and we are willing collectively, grumblingly, to pay more under their new rules.
-- If it stays stagnant, and Delta sufficiently lowers casm, they will do okay, even if they haven't changed our collective purchasing behavior.
-- If it falls, but they can still lower casm sufficiently faster, they will do okay.
-- Only if rasm falls as fast as casm, or faster, does Delta stay in the soup.
</font>
...Almost certainly, Delta will be able to lower casm for awhile. The number to watch is rasm.
-- If rasm increases, Delta has guessed correctly, and we are willing collectively, grumblingly, to pay more under their new rules.
-- If it stays stagnant, and Delta sufficiently lowers casm, they will do okay, even if they haven't changed our collective purchasing behavior.
-- If it falls, but they can still lower casm sufficiently faster, they will do okay.
-- Only if rasm falls as fast as casm, or faster, does Delta stay in the soup.
</font>
I don't disagree one iota with your assessment, but perhaps I'm misinterpreting or missing something. I can't see where any of the recent SkyMiles changes affect casm. That's a whole different mess that Delta has to solve.
Jan 7, 2003, 2:18 pm
#822
Moderator: Hilton Honors forums
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Marietta, Georgia, United States
Posts: 25,006
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by andymo99:
Canarsie, instead of left clicking on the links to go to the thread, right click on the link and click "properties" from the menu. Then copy and paste the detailed URL.
Also, to learn how to make a nice hyperlink (rather than just putting in an ugly address), click on *UBB Code is ON to the left of where you type your postings to FT. That will teach you how to link as I did rather than just like this: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ubbcode.html</font>
Canarsie, instead of left clicking on the links to go to the thread, right click on the link and click "properties" from the menu. Then copy and paste the detailed URL.
Also, to learn how to make a nice hyperlink (rather than just putting in an ugly address), click on *UBB Code is ON to the left of where you type your postings to FT. That will teach you how to link as I did rather than just like this: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ubbcode.html</font>
I already know how to make a nice hyperlink, but did not know why I could not get the exact forum information. I now know: I have a Macintosh computer and therefore cannot right-click onto Properties. I knew it had to be a PC thing. Oh, well....
Back to the topic at hand...
The motivation behind the program changes is obviously financial - what else could it be? However, what looks good on paper does not necessarily mean it will translate well in practice. We shall see. Time will tell.
Jan 7, 2003, 3:33 pm
#823
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Pleasant Prairie, WI USA DL FO (until 2/04), NW silver '03, NW gold '04+'05 Plat '06+ (thanks, Leo!), DL SkyClub
Programs: DL Plat/ Million Miler, AS, Hilton, Marriott Bonvoy, Piggly Wiggly Pig Points
Posts: 2,233
Here's another look into warped Delta thinking...
Only 50% MQM credit will be given for insULT fares yet you will ultimately be able to upgrade from them (which, in the past, was virtually impossible to accomplish most of the time even when K or Q fares were purchased).
Only 50% MQM credit will be given for insULT fares yet you will ultimately be able to upgrade from them (which, in the past, was virtually impossible to accomplish most of the time even when K or Q fares were purchased).
Jan 7, 2003, 4:09 pm
#824
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Gorham, Maine, USA
Programs: Delta Gold, UA Platinum
Posts: 193
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by RobertS975:
You may call me crazy if you so desire, but I think this is a gradual progression to the discontinuation of domestic FC! UA just announced today that there will be no FC meals on flights under three hours. In a year or two, because DL has made the upgrade process so difficult, they will come back to us and say that they are phasing out FC because nobody used it very much. Wait and see!
And the only carriers which are making $$ in the US right now have no FC!</font>
You may call me crazy if you so desire, but I think this is a gradual progression to the discontinuation of domestic FC! UA just announced today that there will be no FC meals on flights under three hours. In a year or two, because DL has made the upgrade process so difficult, they will come back to us and say that they are phasing out FC because nobody used it very much. Wait and see!
And the only carriers which are making $$ in the US right now have no FC!</font>
Jan 7, 2003, 4:37 pm
#825
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Orange County (SNA) CA, AA EXP, Hilton Diamond, Hertz Gold
Posts: 1,789
First flights of the year (JFK, PBI & ORD) will be booked with AA by the end of the week. Not sure if it's too late for DL to get me back at this point. like other posters, I'm not making this switch lightly, will see what happens over the next few weeks and if it's enough to lure me and my check book back