Longboater

This is it for NRT. Delta will just four of the twelve slots to exit NRT entirely. I expect them to apply for six and receive five. DTW/ATL/SEA-HND are all a given, no debate there. I would be shocked if they did NOT apply for JFK-HND. JAL/ANA already fly JFK-HND, so makes little sense for Delta to continue to sit out NYC-TYO. Remember when Bastian stated that they exited JFK-NRT as they couldn't compete with ANA/JAL on JFK-HND? Time to prove if he was serious on that point. I think Delta will apply for PDX/HNL-HND as well. If Delta applies for PDX-HND and its approved, Delta will likely keep a long term monopoly on the route. Its the single largest international O&D market ex-PDX and its silly if Delta wanted to leave it to ANA or JAL.

Its more likely Delta will fly PDX-HND, if approved, than HNL-HND and here is why. Delta is ending HNL-FUK in May. (Hard to believe they lasted this long considering the pounding on yields they've taken on HNL-Japan over the past six years.) Next year ANA will be flying A380s on HNL-NRT/HND. With the new HND slots, HAL will probably receive an additional flight and they'll have to amend some HND flying as they have the night time slot but, due to geography, it matters little. So HAL will be flying double daily HNL-HND and a daily KOA-HND. Assuming DOT approves the HAL/JAL JV, HAL will likely drop the NRT flight. They only added it as they couldn't receive another HND slot. Considering all of this, Delta MAY look for an exit for HNL-Japan flying. With the large scale 767 retirement starting next year, Delta has already parked two aircraft, it makes sense for Delta to cut and run out of HNL-Japan. If Delta DOES apply for HNL-HND, given ANA going A380 on HNL-HND and HAL going double daily on HNL-HND, hard to see the DOT rejecting such a request.

My prediction is Delta will end up flying JFK/DTW/ATL/SEA/PDX-HND.

RealHJ

This is certainly possible, and would be really horrible, having so many options for connecting to Asia, Europe and Australia all disappear, if DL were to pull out of NRT, NGO and KIX all three (now after having pulled out of FUK).

HNL-FUK was canceled with less than 4 months notice, and the local ground staff are shocked and surprised, as the flights are routinely full in Y and J (all paid J), and at a hefty premium price. If DL can't make money given the high fares it is charging (esp. given the substandard, beat up and dirty 767s it flies), something is really wrong within the company operationally.

Duke787

Would be sad to see SIN go away but if this happens at a minimum we better see a SC or a good ST lounge at HND.

That to me is one of the biggest downsides about wholesale closing of NRT -- and it impacts a big swath of customers since it's a genuine SC

FireEmblemPride

There is no way DL completely relocates to HND without a new lounge arrangement in place. They can barely get away with it today, but if every flight moved to HND, DL would have to bite the bullet on lounge access. It would be by far their most important destination in the world without one.

Not sure where exactly they could build an additional lounge at this point, however. ANA is planning to move its international flights over to T2, so maybe they won't need their second lounge and DL or another ST carrier can take over. Another thing I can possibly see is CX closing their HND lounge. I have no idea why that exists when JL already has three fantastic lounges, including an F lounge. It's never been busy when I've gone in there.

bennos

DL has been operating with its "third party lounge" rules for years now. They have a solution for J pax, and clearly the lack of lounge for non-J STE+ on DL metal has not been a significant disincentive to their operations anywhere, let alone at HND (where if it really mattered to drive business as the third place US incumbent DL would already have a better lounge arrangement to improve its competitive situation).

Don't get me wrong, I think DL's third party rule is terrible (and I personally typically don't fly DL INTL in Y for this reason amongst others)... I just think there is every possibility that DL shifts to HND without a new lounge arrangement (and the only way that changes is if SkyTeam decides to open a lounge there).

Toshbaf

Could this mean the end of NRT for UA or AA? What if AA gets only 2 of 3. Are they going to have a single daily flight from NRT, maybe to LAX? UA has many flights so they will probably still have HND and NRT stations.

FireEmblemPride

HND has two flights a day at the moment. That's enough to get away with the rule. If we end up with as many as 8 or 9 flights on DL from HND, the scale will simply be unprecedented. They will definitely do something.

hsnu84053

Besides the sure bids of HND - ATL/SEA/DTW/PDX and maybe HNL and JFK, could DL steal another pair if they commit to restart SFO to Tokyo? This definitely will strengthen Skyteam's exposure in the Bay area.


​​​Also in the order, DOT rejects DL's motion last year for US gateway flexibility, citing that will introduce a complex and controversial element to DOT's standard of approach.
​​​

BenA

readywhenyouare

ab2013

???

DL still flies PDX-NRT. They definitely ran away from JFK-NRT though.

readywhenyouare

BenA

3Cforme

I don't know why they would bother with SFO-HND O & D traffic. DL killed SFO-NRT (in 2014) when it still ran a good number of NRT connections.

3Cforme

You should brush up on your FAA route subsidy rules. Subsidies can't continue more than 24 months. If PDX-NRT weren't making a meaningful contribution it would have been killed years ago.