First, for the first time in I don't know how many years, DL will notice that there are NO upcoming reservations tied to my SkyMiles account. I have directed my business to another carrier.

Second, I applaud DLs attempt to monetize first class. The entitlement associated with upgrades is out of control. My question is... will DL upgrade the service offering for first class and set the standard or will this become another baggage fees revenue enhancement program, i.e., no incremental value add for the customer?

Love your FT handle, almost as funny as the Twitter Skypesos.

I would love to see an upgrade to the FC service. I flew MSP-MCO on Tuesday and both dinner options were cold and the snack basket never made an appearance. May have been more of an FA issue, but still...

However, my guess is their expansion of FCM deliberately coincides with their domestic EC rollout, which IMHO will keep me (and many other DL flyers) pacified if we see our u/g percentage decline significantly.

Example...I'm currently at 92.5% for the year, and if you take out three flights with GM Mrs. Deemus, I'm at 95%. Most of these are on LUT fares but rarely on elite-heavy routes (e.g. I've never flown the BE-equipped transcons). If that percentage were to decline to 80% or even 70% next year, I would be much happier with having a better Y product offering and would thus keep my loyalty to Delta.

I'll admit it...after a few years of FO/GM status with regular upgrades and then very high u/g percentages as PM/DM since last June, I have become entitled to an upgrade. The least DL can do is offer a softer landing (so to speak), which EC will provide.

Just my two cents...flame away. ;)

I paid for FC maybe 10% of the time and sat there maybe 97% of the time. I paid for it because it was the only seat left on a Delta jet for a schedule that fit my needs. With that said, most of my fares were high $ coach fares due to less than 7 days bookings due to the nature of my need to fly....

Delta has leveraged FC seats to me in return for my loyalty.... for many years. They have plainly stated that if you fly us a bunch, we will get you in FC a good bit of the time and you do not have to pay for it... so keep on flying!

IF Delta stops doing this for me, should I just throw up my hands and say, oh well, I guess I did not pay for it anyhoo?

According to the discussion at investor day, gate upgrade sell ups would be available to anyone, not fare specific. So, the casual flyer on a LUT fare, if the program is implemented as they are discussing, would allow a gate free-for-all for the available seats to anyone willing to shell out the $75 (or whatever the amount is determined to be).

If it becomes that difficult on DL, then at least with UA/CO you're still earning miles that are worth a bit more. Not to mention it's 25,000 miles easier to get to top tier than on DL. (Ignoring GS, which DL has no real equivalent for.)

I think the question you need to answer (to yourself) is how low does 97% drop before you look elsewhere?

Or, start paying more?

Remember, if you book at < 7 days, you're likely booking after the DM/PM window clears so the number of available F seats is always going to be low. for 97% F, of which 87% were UGs, that's pretty damned good.

Most of us that fly a lot figure out very quickly which flights are full / heavy elite, and which are not. If DL is looking for 50% paid F (in one form or another), we all know that the heavy elite flights will be closer to 100% and the less heavy, middle of the day flights will be closer to 0%.

I'm guessing there'll be plenty of folks who'll simply adapt their travel habits slightly. I already do this, but FCM gives me the chance to keep my preferred flight and still guarantee an F seat if I really want it...

I'm not sure DL is going to be able to use P fares to monetize FC as much as we fear or they hope. There is a limit to how far you can take it.

Most business travelers are forced by company policy to take the cheapest fare offered (i.e., no First Class tickets). Unless there is virtually no coach inventory available when someone tries to book a ticket, then DL cannot make P the cheapest fare, because if they do, they don't monetize FC at all -- they sell it for the same price they'd charge for coach. So the only time business travelers will book P is when coach is basically sold out, and that's pretty much what happens now.

And most casual travelers aren't going to pay a lot more for domestic FC, especially considering that it's basically only a bigger seat.

So I question how much more juice DL can squeeze out of P fares. I think it's more likely that DL will scrap the UDU's and go back to the pre-2002 (2003?) system, where GMs and FOs had to earn "points" that could then be used to request upgrades (and if you didn't have any points left, you had to buy them).

Cheers,
Mike

It's a fair question -- there are diminishing returns at some point.

Feels like something at least pseudo instrument based may be in the cards. The whole "choose" to enter the lottery statement is mysterious.

Well, right now gate upgrades are only sold after all Medallions clear. If that policy is maintained, who cares if LUT fares are upgrade eligible?

Of course, if paid upgrades clear before Medallions on the standby list, that's a different story, and it wouldn't surprise me if that's the direction they're going in since it'd be FCM-synergized.

Won't affect DM's NOT
 

To those who think that DM's will still get upgraded, it is not true. The route I am flying has the cheaper P fares and has profusely affected upgrades. I realized this when I was 4/8 back in September and almost lost one on a B fare, so I checked the fares and P was about $75 each way more than a Q fare.

I am seeing more than 7 days out that half of FC is occupied showing that people are buying up. I was actually excited that I got an upgrade at the window as a DM for a flight christmas day. ugh.

I was just offered an upgrade on ATL-SFO return for $200 extra while booking the tickets.

This is precisely what DL is considering implemeting as they try to push FCM. In essence, it would be paid F, paid upgrades, complimentary medallion upgrades.

FC for $15 more than full coach - the beginning of monetization
 

Randomly ran across this on youtube...

The beginning of first class 'monetization'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkxtU...eature=related

Republic's 'Business First' for $15 more than a flexible coach fare circa 1985. Note no shots of meal service, just the spartan free drinks.

And recognize the 'Perks' program that eventually became World Perks after NW bought them. Oh what FlyerTalk would have been 25 years ago with the experimenting they did. Not to imagine the threads about smokers in Row 3.

Um back then Republic wasn't upgrading its elites complimentary without stickers, coupons, etc...And since I vividly recall living in a RC city at the time, their marketing didn't include TV ads, billboards and print ads about loyalty being a 2-way street and how they have the most first class seats so elites get their upgrades.

Not taking sides. Just sayin'...