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Originally Posted by lsugolfer
(Post 17668435)
Except it is reality according to Delta. Most of the upsells to F on P fares are from Medallions.
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If I had to do 160 segs a year in coach, I assure you it would not all be on Delta like it has been for a while....
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Originally Posted by oh912flyer
(Post 17668895)
My turn to rant.
With all these threads I come to the same three conclusions: 1. Too much "entitlement" mentality around here. Just cuz you are a DM, doesn't mean you get an upgrade. Deal with it. 2. Some of you think you're worth more to DL than you really are. FTers are fun, and there's a lot of knowledge here, and for some unknown reason, some really HVCs actually spend time here. (Thank you!) But there's a lot more non-FTers out there. I have yet to meet anyone on any flight when I am sat up front that has even heard of FT, let alone is a regular poster! 3. Some of you fail basic marketing. To claim Joe Schmoe's are more likely to pay for upgrades when DLs own data clearly shows otherwise, just because you think it's more likely, is, well, pretty arrogant. DL is a multi-billion dollar company with data mining systems that provide them with REAL DATA, not just supposition. If DL does something that the data indicates will be a good thing, you can bet your salary that it will be beneficial for DL even if you think it will cause you to jump ship. (Do you REALLY think other airlines aren't doing just the same thing???) |
Originally Posted by goodandclassy
(Post 17668115)
The way i read it, it was $675M per year - so we are looking at $2.7B. Thank you AMEX
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Originally Posted by jsmith50
(Post 17669211)
You are correct, DL's data doesn't show Joe Schmoe is more likely to buy an upgrade, only because DL doesn't currently offer that product for Joe Schmoe.
If I can buy it, so can Joe Schmoe. The fact is Joe Schmoe isn't looking for it, because he doesn't spend every week, or every other week on a plane. So if DL does all its upselling online, Joe can buy it, but he's unlikely to do so because he doesn't care. I will admit that at the end of a long trip home, Joe might be more inclined to buy the $75 upgrade at the gate to end the trip on a high note, but $75 upgrades are the gate aren't DL's target. DL's target is 50%(ish) paid 1 week out, before the comp upgrades clear. And I doubt $75 is the target price. One of the things I like about FCM, is that it reduces the stupidly high price of an F ticket. There aren't enough people to sell 12 F seats for a 90 minute flight if the cost is $900. Cut it in half, and maybe you can sell 50%. And no, it doesn't dilute FC; F is still refundable. P and A are not. Lastly, I think there's a model for an "all-F" * domestic airline similar to what DL is doing with its P fares. * By that I mean wider seats, meal served and free drinks for everyone, at a higher price. EC is kinda in that mode... |
Originally Posted by oh912flyer
(Post 17669352)
Sorry, I wasn't aware that P fares were only available to Medallions :rolleyes:
If I can buy it, so can Joe Schmoe. The fact is Joe Schmoe isn't looking for it, because he doesn't spend every week, or every other week on a plane. So if DL does all its upselling online, Joe can buy it, but he's unlikely to do so because he doesn't care. I also agree with you that FCM has the potential to make F more affordable if DL were to sell the seats versus make them a SM benefit. Here's the rub...my company and many others prohibit purchase of F tickets (we can legally buy anything up to full fare Y or business if travelling internationally). So, if DL goes to a strict FCM system where I never get to sit in F because I don't buy the ticket and the number of UGs is greatly diminished, then I (and other HVCs in the same position) begin looking for another airline where I get the complimentary UGs. I would love to see an all F airline. I used to love flying Midwestern into Kansas City back a decade ago. It was worth connecting in Milwaukee for those chocolate chip cookies. But, it has to fly more places than Midwestern flew or else it can't compete. |
Originally Posted by jsmith50
(Post 17669472)
No, I agree with you here. It's not an issue of P fares being available to any class of flyer. It's an issue that the cost of those upgradeable fares is so much higher that the average Joe Schmoe heading out on vacation is more likely to buy the cheapest LUT fare available, having planned his vacation 3 months or more in advance. You and I and many of the other FFers on this board, often have to buy the higher fares on shorter notice because it is the lot we are dealt. As a result, if DL looks at probability of filling F with fare upsells, the data they capture is mostly the FFer business community who has medallion status. This number is highly skewed from the non-status average flyer based on number of ticket sales in each fare bucket. This was part of the issue that was reflected at the investor day through the question and answer portion of the talk and in some of the casual conversation that followed.
I also agree with you that FCM has the potential to make F more affordable if DL were to sell the seats versus make them a SM benefit. Here's the rub...my company and many others prohibit purchase of F tickets (we can legally buy anything up to full fare Y or business if travelling internationally). So, if DL goes to a strict FCM system where I never get to sit in F because I don't buy the ticket and the number of UGs is greatly diminished, then I (and other HVCs in the same position) begin looking for another airline where I get the complimentary UGs. I would love to see an all F airline. I used to love flying Midwestern into Kansas City back a decade ago. It was worth connecting in Milwaukee for those chocolate chip cookies. But, it has to fly more places than Midwestern flew or else it can't compete. Also, I suspect something else will happen. If other airlines follow suit (and if DL makes money doing this, they will) you will see more companies relax the "no F" policy once they realize that the new FC fares are cheaper than the Y fare. Generally "no F" policies are due to cost, i.e., the beancounters making the policy. |
I think it's safe to assume DL would like to replicate the success of the BE transcons (selling 90% of J) throughout the rest of the network (even if 50% is more likely due to the product not really being the same).
Given that, let's look at these flights, which already offer EC (albeit not enough IMO). Off peak upgrade lists are typically 30 deep, to say nothing of peak lists. Probably 75-80% of them are FO and GM (based on my previous experience). Have these folks stopped flying DL? In the aggregate no, though I'm sure some have, so I think we can expect increased FCM to stick. From my personal perspective, though, if I drop down to GM or FO I'd probably give up on chasing status and start free agenting again (say, B6+EML for the transcons). |
Originally Posted by oh912flyer
(Post 17669502)
If 50% is the target, you'll still get your UG with an actual Y purchase.
Also, I suspect something else will happen. If other airlines follow suit (and if DL makes money doing this, they will) you will see more companies relax the "no F" policy once they realize that the new FC fares are cheaper than the Y fare. Generally "no F" policies are due to cost, i.e., the beancounters making the policy. They insinuated that some corporates are asking for some benefits like buy ups to be included in their contracts and are working to accomodate that when reasonable. |
Originally Posted by oh912flyer
(Post 17669502)
If 50% is the target, you'll still get your UG with an actual Y purchase.
Also, I suspect something else will happen. If other airlines follow suit (and if DL makes money doing this, they will) you will see more companies relax the "no F" policy once they realize that the new FC fares are cheaper than the Y fare. Generally "no F" policies are due to cost, i.e., the beancounters making the policy. |
Originally Posted by jsmith50
(Post 17669472)
Here's the rub...my company and many others prohibit purchase of F tickets (we can legally buy anything up to full fare Y or business if travelling internationally).
The interesting thing is that Delta has gotten to 30% sales with a certain premium of A and P fares over coach. If they try to increase the percentage of sales, the fare premium will go down. It might even be revenue neutral. Almost sounds like I'm talking about International J, doesn't it? :cool: In any case, I expected that Economy Comfort would be used to trade off a decline in upgrades. Economy plus worked well for United in that regard. David |
I wonder if they have factored in how many people will stop buying higher fares in the hopes of increasing their upgrade chances.:confused:
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Originally Posted by oh912flyer
(Post 17668895)
My turn to rant.
Here's the problem with your post. If you read other posts, particularly those dealing with DL's new website in 2012, it should be pretty clear that there aren't going to be any $75 "at the gate" upgrades; they'll all be sold online before the day of sale. A LOT of us buy tickets 7-10 days out. We're already paying M class fares, and for me, the price of a P fare has ranged from $0 more to $150 more. Given that all of my flights are 2-legged, and one is usually more than 4 hrs, it's worth it. And I've bought a lot of them. Even since becoming a DM. Let that sink in. I am a DM on a M class fare, and I am still paying for the guaranteed F seat. Why? Because it's worth it to me. Now, for those of you working for companies with inflexible travel policies who are all claiming "I'll just move to XYZ airline" you are forgetting something. If you all do that, XYZ airline will run out of space, and ... raise their prices. With all these threads I come to the same three conclusions: 1. Too much "entitlement" mentality around here. Just cuz you are a DM, doesn't mean you get an upgrade. Deal with it. 2. Some of you think you're worth more to DL than you really are. FTers are fun, and there's a lot of knowledge here, and for some unknown reason, some really HVCs actually spend time here. (Thank you!) But there's a lot more non-FTers out there. I have yet to meet anyone on any flight when I am sat up front that has even heard of FT, let alone is a regular poster! 3. Some of you fail basic marketing. To claim Joe Schmoe's are more likely to pay for upgrades when DLs own data clearly shows otherwise, just because you think it's more likely, is, well, pretty arrogant. DL is a multi-billion dollar company with data mining systems that provide them with REAL DATA, not just supposition. If DL does something that the data indicates will be a good thing, you can bet your salary that it will be beneficial for DL even if you think it will cause you to jump ship. (Do you REALLY think other airlines aren't doing just the same thing???) Look, I don't necessarily agree with everything DL does. But I am a capitalist. And I want them to be successful and deliver a good product. Almost all of the time, that's what I get. (I rarely fly J so don't go there.) I am happy to pay more for my flight to get the service I expect. And if that means a few extra $$ for my flight, I'm happy to pay it. Oh, and I pay for my own flights, unlike many of you on here... End rant. The one thing that you need to incorporate into the equation is that the economy is improving at a time of reduced capacity. There simply are more folks with means to buy F (for business or personal travel). And on the domestic front, I personally believe that in addition to simple consolidation which takes out seats, in DL's case, there just are a lot fewer F seats to work with especially on long-hauls. I look back on the good-ole days where as an FO and GM scoring a transcon upgrade on a BE equipment 763 was almost a given. And BE back then had both the forward and rear cabin - how many seats was that - 48? Now you might have an extra flight or two JFK-LAX but you have 1/3 the seats. And here's the catch, knowing that your chances of an upgrade are slim to none make the wise and capable buy the guaranteed F seat and just be done with it. I for one don't believe that DL is planning to give away the seat. If your fare bucket is LUT, it will cost you to move up. However, if I am on an already high fare and EF is showing a shrinking open F cabin, I would buy up and the longer the flight, the more quickly I would do it. |
Plenty of F pax
There are plenty of people who will pay for F out there and, if it means sending aircraft out with empty F seats to preserve the brand, it's worth it to DL.
1. Economy is improving and capacity is reduced, so more paid F in the first place. 2. More intl. inbound traffic. These folks are used to a F/J product of some sort and will pay it domestically. 3. Corporate discounts are being marketed ever more agressively by DL. Many include discounted fare treated as Y-UP (not to mention the various F discount buckets). Add to that the # of people willing to pay $100-300 for an F seat and DL can make a good deal of money by reducing the freebies and making a paying product pay. In addition, it's not as though this won't happen on UACO and AA, so that leaves WN (oh, they don't have F!) |
I think that there's a lot of complaining here about things that don't matter much, but _this_ is the one thing that matters. At least to me.
I am a plat, I flew 66K BIS miles (yes, I got an amex boost too), and spend about 13K on tickets. That's about 20CPM by my count, which doesn't seem like margin they want to give up. I am disappointed by the "72 hr" rule, and a bunch of the other little things, but DL gets my loyalty for upgrades, plain and simple. If I can take my business elsewhere, and get a better upgrade situation, I'll do that. |
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