jmastron

The important distinctions are that:

1) That certificate is currently required for limited places/activities that many people will never need to be at or do.

2) Most anyone can get the right certificate by getting vaccinations

Implementing a system where a certificate is required and enforced to do almost any economic activity (or where the privilege of having it lets you go on vacation, earn even more, etc), and where the only way to intentionally get it is to deliberatly expose yourself (and then anyone you contact) with the virus IMO would create a catastrophic situation worse than anything else we're doing today. Mitigating it (by paying those who don't have it to stay home, making their tickets/trips refundable etc) would require even more draconian government decisions and market interference that I'd hate to see.

TBD

These are valid concerns, but it's just an academic discussion unless you offer some practical alternative.
The reality is that we will likely need something to confirm immunity. I'm sorry if you don't like it, but the world economy isn't going to wait on your personal objections.

ExpatExp

Yes, these are also good points. Given that the Carte Jaune could indeed be used in this context (and despite the fact that it is not currently used in this context), it will be interesting to see if it (or something similar) is actually used for this purpose in the future.

Fascinating article.

Doppy

Some employers in the US are already thinking of requiring regular testing of employees who have to work onsite.

One could imagine a combined system requiring an immunity certificate or instant test for certain activities.

As it may be 18-24 months before 70%+ of the world has access to vaccinations (assuming they work and roll out on a very accelerated timeline), it seems implausible to me that a yellow fever vaccination-like requirement will NOT start to spring up in many places. The costs (economic and psychological) of will be too high to keep everyone at home indefinitely.

The expectation that everyone will stay home until nearly everyone is vaccinated is not based on reality; six weeks (or in some cases fewer) into lockdowns in the US and people are already protesting (yes, I recognize that there are organized campaigns promoting this, but if there weren't an underlying kernel, the protests wouldn't take place). And if Sweden is successful and reaches herd immunity in the next few weeks, lockdowns will become even more untenable in democracies when August comes around and everyone in the US is still stuck indoors and the economy is closed, while Swedes prance freely in the streets.

GUWonder

Sweden won’t reach herd immunity in the next few weeks. Even the architect of Sweden’s response to the virus — namely, Anders Tegnell — is coming around to acknowledging that indirectly.

Being able to go out to buy food, medicine and to do exercise isn’t my idea of being stuck indoors. Most of the US seems to allow me to do the same stuff I’ve been doing in Sweden this week. Either way, I doubt that being in Sweden this month and next month will get me an “immunity passport”.

GetSetJetSet

The most recent studies indicate that you cannot catch COVID twice. If someone has been tested and has antibodies, indicating they are immune, what's the argument for not allowing them to travel in or out of various countries? Likewise, what is the argument for not allowing people in if they are willing to submit to a 14-day quarantine?

Deckter

To answer the question in your title, i hope never. I know of a few countries where doctors have no problem in issuing ICVP's(International Certificate of Vaccination or Prophylaxis) against a small amount of money, so i don't see them having any issue with faking some immunity certificate.

bitterproffit

No studies indicate you can't catch COVID twice. Most studies show a period of immunity. But they don't know how long it lasts. The immunity passport is being looked at, but I think they need further to understand how long immunity lasts.

I think the other big issue is the current accuracy of the immunity tests and too many false positives and false negatives.

This study suggests immunity might not last long (maybe only 6 months)

https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/25/...says-new-study

The WHO isn't too confident that immunity passports will work:

https://www.who.int/news-room/commen...xt-of-covid-19

narvik

I wouldn't mind buying such a passport!
🤔

rickg523

Immunity passports sound pie-in-the-sky. But I could see a revival of those old yellow WHO vaccination booklets that we had to carry with us when traveling outside of North America, certifying vaccinations for Cholera, Yellow Fever, etc.
Once there is a vaccine, of course.

Doppy

Sure there is always the risk of fraud, but don't you think that, on the whole, a requirement for, say, proof of a yellow fever vaccination substantially increases the number of people coming in that have actually had the vaccination?

Similarly here with an "immunity certificate" or proof of COVID vaccination - the goal doesn't have to be 100% compliance for it to work, the numbers just have to be high enough.

Deckter

I think you are underestimating that risk of fraud, considering that it's a certificate needed worldwide, not just useful for a few African nations, mostly by holidaymakers. Without a vaccine, it would immediately create two societies, the immunes, that get to travel for work and pleasure, maybe don't need to wear a mask anymore and "the plebs" that need to stay at home. Anyway, countries are opening up slowly, so we are able to travel as it is.

knownothing

FALSE INFO
The current thoughts are that you can. cf the USS Roosevelt where a good number of sailors got it twice https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...covid-19-again

GetSetJetSet

If catching it and recovering doesn't provide immunity, then presumably a vaccine won't either...so then what are we waiting for?

also

YOU CAN'T CATCH IT TWICE - SK

knownothing

Unfortunately not enough is known about the corono virus. We do know that "The novel coronavirus behind COVID-19 belongs to a family of viruses that has a very uneven track record with the human immune system, With the four seasonal beta coronaviruses that circulate and cause all the upper respiratory infections you see in your practice, those people lose immunity in months to a year or two,"

We don't know enough
Plus it mutates,
Not all + tests are accurate
There are many viruses which do not confer immunity
There are many documented cases of recurrance
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020...ing-immunity#1