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Trump administration bans China passenger planes effective June 16

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Trump administration bans China passenger planes effective June 16

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Old Jun 12, 2020, 6:51 pm
  #166  
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Originally Posted by travelinmanS
I’d say there is no way to know if UA will actually fly these flights at all. Used to be the safest way was to book a mainland carrier at an astronomical price on their once a week flights but now that may be up in the air as well. Does your niece have a Chinese/HK/TW passport? If not, August entry seems unlikely.
She is a PRC citizen with US green card.

At this point, J fare offered by Chinese carriers is around 100,000 CNY. That's too much for her.

UA standard J award is 175000 miles. I can book her for 7 days so she is guaranteed a ticket.

Worst case UA doesn't run the flight. But then what's the point DOT fighting with CAAC?

Originally Posted by moondog
I'm thinking it would be reasonably safe for you to eliminate Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday from your calculus. I prefer flights on these days due to low demand, but Fridays and Sundays are the most popular. I'm also guessing that UA, DL, MU, and CA will spread out their flights across the peak days in order to avoid stepping on each others' toes.
Interesting tip. Appreciated. Here are the days.

CA LAX-PEK Sunday
MU JFK-PVG Wednesday
CZ LAX-CAN Sunday
MF LAX-XMN Monday
DL SEA-PVG Thursday

If all of them run, then Tue/Fri/Sat are the best bets for UA. If only CA/MU/DL run as speculated, then Mon/Tue/Fri/Sat.

Safest way to ensure a ticket is to book 7 tickets for the entire week. Would UA be upset about this practice?
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Old Jun 12, 2020, 7:40 pm
  #167  
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Originally Posted by kb1992


Interesting tip. Appreciated. Here are the days.

CA LAX-PEK Sunday
MU JFK-PVG Wednesday
CZ LAX-CAN Sunday
MF LAX-XMN Monday
DL SEA-PVG Thursday

If all of them run, then Tue/Fri/Sat are the best bets for UA. If only CA/MU/DL run as speculated, then Mon/Tue/Fri/Sat.

Safest way to ensure a ticket is to book 7 tickets for the entire week. Would UA be upset about this practice?
1. MF doesn't matter
2. The two Sunday flights do, but UA won't compete with them
3. They are also unlikely to go head-to-head with MU on Wednesday; i.e this is direct competition
4. Thursday is possible but because EWR and SEA are far apart, I say "unlikely"
5. This makes Friday and Saturday the most logical bets
6. I can't imagine that UA would care if you booked flights for the entire week, but why do so?
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Old Jun 12, 2020, 8:32 pm
  #168  
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Originally Posted by moondog
1. MF doesn't matter
2. The two Sunday flights do, but UA won't compete with them
3. They are also unlikely to go head-to-head with MU on Wednesday; i.e this is direct competition
4. Thursday is possible but because EWR and SEA are far apart, I say "unlikely"
5. This makes Friday and Saturday the most logical bets
6. I can't imagine that UA would care if you booked flights for the entire week, but why do so?
This makes sense. What if UA only runs SFO-PVG? What days of the week look more likely?

There is no downside to book the whole week. It guarantees a ticket. Award tickets can be refunded without penalty.
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Old Jun 12, 2020, 9:36 pm
  #169  
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Looks like it is not happening for UA, and DL is still waiting for approval for the one single weekly flight.

https://www-voanews-com.cdn.ampproje...l-left-out?amp

I heard indirectly that UA has made it known that even if they start a full schedule in July, it is likely all the flights will be full already because they have to accommodate those who purchased the tickets to travel in May and June onto the July flights first.
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Old Jun 13, 2020, 12:27 am
  #170  
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Originally Posted by UA_Flyer

I heard indirectly that UA has made it known that even if they start a full schedule in July, it is likely all the flights will be full already because they have to accommodate those who purchased the tickets to travel in May and June onto the July flights first.
I don't really think so.

UA has been selling tickets on multiple daily flights to China for months. Of course most of these flights, if not all, won't fly.

UA canceled all China flights for May and June. Pax who bought the tickets can ask a refund. Or buy another ticket using the credit.

There is NO such thing as UA" accommodates" them on future China flights.

The pax can change to the new flights but likely need to pay fare difference (no change fee).
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Old Jun 13, 2020, 4:06 am
  #171  
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Originally Posted by UA_Flyer
Looks like it is not happening for UA, and DL is still waiting for approval for the one single weekly flight.

https://www-voanews-com.cdn.ampproje...l-left-out?amp

I heard indirectly that UA has made it known that even if they start a full schedule in July, it is likely all the flights will be full already because they have to accommodate those who purchased the tickets to travel in May and June onto the July flights first.
1. CX is annoying because of the HKG transit, but this should work in August for a fraction of what the US and CN carriers are charging
2. UA miles are not especially useful for KB
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Old Jun 13, 2020, 4:34 am
  #172  
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Originally Posted by moondog
1. CX is annoying because of the HKG transit, but this should work in August for a fraction of what the US and CN carriers are charging
Thanks! This is interesting.

I thought the HKG transit does not apply “to/from China” passengers.

Is there a relaxation in August?



https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...ng-airport-and
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Old Jun 13, 2020, 8:43 am
  #173  
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Originally Posted by 889
"What a mess, and of course the new students and those fortunate or unfortunate to have managed to go home to escape the virus or for summer vacation will be facing the same problem soon, although new students probably shouldn't buy plane tickets until they have their visas in hand."

Just to repeat in case any students in Mainland China are planning to return to America to continue their studies: if you've spent any of the past 14 days in Mainland China you cannot enter the U.S. unless you're a U.S. citizen, green-card holder or close relative of same (or diplomat or other very special case). That is, there's no exception for those holding student visas. To return to the U.S. you must first spend 14 days outside Mainland China, Schengen, the U.K. etc. Or wait until the U.S. changes the rules.
Realistically, where can a person from mainland China go for the fourteen days on the way to the USA, ideally where a visa would not be needed or some sort of electronic visa could be approved automatically? Note also that if a COVID-19 test is required prior to travel, this could be difficult to obtain in China.

Originally Posted by moondog
1. If they want to fly here, they can figure out a way to buy a ticket
2. Home based quarantine is now possible in most of China
3. In cases where it isn't, they're only looking at y300 per day to stay in a hotel, and they might be permitted to leave the hotel on day 2 or 3
In every case I know where a student in the USA returned to China this spring either permanently or (hopefully) just temporarily for the summer vacation period, the student was sent to a government quarantine center for fourteen days. In one case, the flight seemed to divert on the way to Beijing. In another case, there were two fourteen day periods in a government quarantine center, the second being without warning when someone in the same apartment building was infected.
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Old Jun 13, 2020, 9:02 am
  #174  
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"Realistically, where can a person from mainland China go for the fourteen days on the way to the USA, ideally where a visa would not be needed or some sort of electronic visa could be approved automatically?"

Hong Kong or Macau, which aren't included in the US ban. At present, HK doesn't allow entry to Mainlanders unless they've got documents permitting a stay in HK greater than 14 days -- most Mainlanders don't meet this requirement -- but entry to HK for Mainland people will probably ease by August.
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Old Jun 13, 2020, 9:14 am
  #175  
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Dynamic situation.
All rules could be subject to change without notice.

Hard to predict future of travel.

A cluster of dozens of new coronavirus cases in Beijing has prompted authorities to lock down parts of the city again, after nearly two months without any new local infections.

The outbreak has affected dozens of people, though most are asymptomatic, and raises concerns about how the virus might re-emerge, even in places where it appeared to be under control.

NYT..the Guardian.
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Old Jun 13, 2020, 10:08 am
  #176  
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Originally Posted by UA_Flyer
Thanks! This is interesting.

I thought the HKG transit does not apply “to/from China” passengers.

Is there a relaxation in August?

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...ng-airport-and
We hope so, but this stuff is difficult to predict, especially if there are more outbreaks. The appealing thing about HK is that there are multiple flights from PEK and PVG to there, and we can fly onward to the US and Europe. I get the fact that CAAC doesn't like this solution, but it's kind of tough to challenge if HK reopens for transit. Furthermore, CA would presumably support CX because it owns 29.9% of CX.
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Old Jun 13, 2020, 10:28 am
  #177  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
In every case I know where a student in the USA returned to China this spring either permanently or (hopefully) just temporarily for the summer vacation period, the student was sent to a government quarantine center for fourteen days. In one case, the flight seemed to divert on the way to Beijing. In another case, there were two fourteen day periods in a government quarantine center, the second being without warning when someone in the same apartment building was infected.
Beijing has special rules because it is the capital. I wouldn't dream of going there myself, even though it is now possible. But, quarantine in Shanghai is seriously no big deal, even if you are stuck in a hotel for 14 days. Spending $600 on a hotel is not going to crush anyone.

Can your students do summer classes in order to keep their visas active? You should look into this option because better both them and your university.
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Old Jun 13, 2020, 10:30 am
  #178  
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Originally Posted by moondog
We hope so, but this stuff is difficult to predict, especially if there are more outbreaks. The appealing thing about HK is that there are multiple flights from PEK and PVG to there, and we can fly onward to the US and Europe. I get the fact that CAAC doesn't like this solution, but it's kind of tough to challenge if HK reopens for transit. Furthermore, CA would presumably support CX because it owns 29.9% of CX.
Thanks. I have learned to trust your comments when it comes to China travel matters over the years. I would jump on the chance to fly in to China now if transit at HKG is an option when it is allowed for mainland China flights.
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Old Jun 13, 2020, 11:27 am
  #179  
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Originally Posted by moondog
We hope so, but this stuff is difficult to predict, especially if there are more outbreaks. The appealing thing about HK is that there are multiple flights from PEK and PVG to there, and we can fly onward to the US and Europe. I get the fact that CAAC doesn't like this solution, but it's kind of tough to challenge if HK reopens for transit. Furthermore, CA would presumably support CX because it owns 29.9% of CX.
I don't think it was the HK government that banned mainland transit. The direction must have came from someone high up in Beijing, way above the rank of CA management. HK transit will not ease without overall easing as Beijing is well aware of the loophole it creates. It would be interesting to see what Taiwan do, since Beijing consider them part of China, they are not under the restrictions, but their government don't listen to Beijing so they can relax the transit rules.
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Old Jun 13, 2020, 11:53 am
  #180  
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Originally Posted by moondog
Beijing has special rules because it is the capital. I wouldn't dream of going there myself, even though it is now possible. But, quarantine in Shanghai is seriously no big deal, even if you are stuck in a hotel for 14 days. Spending $600 on a hotel is not going to crush anyone.

Can your students do summer classes in order to keep their visas active? You should look into this option because better both them and your university.
Graduate students generally stay on campus for most of the summer to do research, not take summer school classes. They wouldn't lose their student visas.

Summer school classes tend to be the basic intro level courses, although a number of universities are offering more courses now than in previous summers, generally all online. There's unlikely to be much of interest unless someone still needs to satisfy a general education requirement or can find something of interest for a free elective.

The problem is the continuing students who have already returned to China for the summer, plus the (hopeful) new students of course. Even without the entry restrictions, my understanding is that every time a student from mainland China returns to China, they need to obtain a new student visa, including the interview in person at a consulate. I suspect that the standard is single entry student visas, although there should logically be some exceptions for graduate students who participate in international conferences.
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