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Trump administration bans China passenger planes effective June 16

Trump administration bans China passenger planes effective June 16

Old Jun 3, 20, 8:39 am
  #1  
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Trump administration bans China passenger planes effective June 16

Link to CNBC report

Based on timing, they are putting additional pressure China to restart Delta and United passenger flights by the middle of the month. Delta and United both have mid-month penciled in, and seem to be closely coordinating with the US government.

Thank goodness in my case me and my wife fly on the 6th, otherwise we would be completely screwed. Well, the $7000 we just spent on tickets to the US via the awful China Southern non-stop flight was pardon my French, a butt drilling, but a shutdown of flights is worse yet.
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Old Jun 3, 20, 8:50 am
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The order applies to Air China (601111.SS), China Eastern Airlines Corp, China Southern Airlines Co (600029.SS) and Hainan Airlines Holding Co (600221.SS), the sources said.

That's great, now air freight costs will continue to skyrocket. Who ends up paying for all this?


"With the COVID-19 pandemic affecting every major trade lane by April, international belly capacity was reduced by 75% compared to the previous year. Additional freighter and passenger-freighter flying increased capacity by a mere 15%, suggesting, “there is significant demand for air cargo which cannot be met owing to the cessation of most passenger flights,” according to IATA."
https://cargofacts.com/allposts/logi...-cargo-demand/

Last edited by anacapamalibu; Jun 3, 20 at 8:56 am
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Old Jun 3, 20, 8:59 am
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Originally Posted by anacapamalibu View Post
The order applies to Air China (601111.SS), China Eastern Airlines Corp, China Southern Airlines Co (600029.SS) and Hainan Airlines Holding Co (600221.SS), the sources said.

That's great, now air freight costs will continue to skyrocket. Who ends up paying for all this?


"With the COVID-19 pandemic affecting every major trade lane by April, international belly capacity was reduced by 75% compared to the previous year. Additional freighter and passenger-freighter flying increased capacity by a mere 15%, suggesting, “there is significant demand for air cargo which cannot be met owing to the cessation of most passenger flights,” according to IATA."
https://cargofacts.com/allposts/logi...-cargo-demand/
Think of this as a tariff on Chinese goods. Another nudge to encourage companies to move production to other countries that don't impose arbitrary flight restrictions.
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Old Jun 3, 20, 9:07 am
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The Chinese policy was ridiculous, arbitrary and unfair to both US airlines and to its own citizens. Trump is the only one crazy enough to stand up to them. Let’s see if it works.
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Old Jun 3, 20, 9:42 am
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Can they press Chinese suppliers to cut their prices? No
Can they absorb the higher costs themselves? No
Should they pass higher costs on to their customers in the form of price increases? Yes


Move to:
Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Canada, Mexico, Central America

China is a manufacturer US is a consumer. Let's impose tariff because of unbalanced trade.
Every car buyer in US should get paid from GM Chevy Chrysler Ford because they don't
buy anything from them.

Last edited by anacapamalibu; Jun 3, 20 at 9:51 am
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Old Jun 3, 20, 9:55 am
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Originally Posted by anacapamalibu View Post
The order applies to Air China (601111.SS), China Eastern Airlines Corp, China Southern Airlines Co (600029.SS) and Hainan Airlines Holding Co (600221.SS), the sources said.

That's great, now air freight costs will continue to skyrocket. Who ends up paying for all this?

/
There was no restriction on cargo flights. For example as of two weeks ago UA was flying 39 cargo flights a week into Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai using passenger planes. Not quite daily into Chengdu, 3X daily to Shanghai and 2X daily to Beijing. The four mainland carriers together will lose their one passenger flight a week each. Really not sure what CAAC is up to here. All airlines on both sides want to fly more between China and the US, except for AA.
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Old Jun 3, 20, 10:10 am
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Hong Kong (CX) doesn't seem to be included, although there's a prohibition on HKG transit to/from mainland China even though the airport is now open for transit (assuming that one doesn't need to enter to recheck a bag, etc.).

AFAIK transit would still be allowed through SIN, ICN, HND, and NRT, with KIX perhaps also being possible and maybe TPE soon, although entry/quarantine requirements need to be checked carefully.
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Old Jun 3, 20, 1:29 pm
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I think the biggest impact will be on cargo/freight rates and availability and all the PPE coming over from China. UPS, most freight forwarders, etc. don't have their own cargo planes and buy space on commercial airliners.
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Old Jun 3, 20, 1:44 pm
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Originally Posted by pdxparse View Post
I think the biggest impact will be on cargo/freight rates and availability and all the PPE coming over from China. UPS, most freight forwarders, etc. don't have their own cargo planes and buy space on commercial airliners.
The impact of Trump's policy is relatively small, only 4 passenger flights per week impacted, one each from CA/MU/CZ/MF due to China's five one policies. Other airlines including UA/DL and Chinese carriers have been operating cargo only flights using passenger planes.
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Old Jun 3, 20, 1:49 pm
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In addition, I don't think many foreign carriers will want to try to resume PEK service given the Chinese rules about the planned diversion landing at some other airport for virus tests with many passengers also being forced to do the mandatory fourteen day quarantine there before continuing on to Beijing. The timing and crew eligibility would be a mess, plus there would be an unknown number of passengers entitled to take the domestic hop fourteen days later.
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Old Jun 3, 20, 2:44 pm
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Originally Posted by pdxparse View Post
I think the biggest impact will be on cargo/freight rates and availability and all the PPE coming over from China. UPS, most freight forwarders, etc. don't have their own cargo planes and buy space on commercial airliners.
There are hundreds of thousands of chinese students in US that can't afford $50K for a private jet seat to get back to China. If China opened up US flights..They could fill the cabins with passengers and freight on the way over, then return fully loaded with freight.
This would be very lucrative for airlines and reduce air freight rates. This squabble about airlines routes is not only costing business more money but affecting the health of people by delaying and increasing cost of PPE. The tariffs are a thorn in everyone's side,
just cancel them and get back to business.
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Old Jun 3, 20, 2:55 pm
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Originally Posted by anacapamalibu View Post
There are hundreds of thousands of chinese students in US that can't afford $50K for a private jet seat to get back to China. If China opened up US flights..They could fill the cabins with passengers and freight on the way over, then return fully loaded with freight.
This would be very lucrative for airlines and reduce air freight rates. This squabble about airlines routes is not only costing business more money but affecting the health of people by delaying and increasing cost of PPE. The tariffs are a thorn in everyone's side,
just cancel them and get back to business.
However, for many mainland Chinese students (namely, everyone but those who have finished their degree requirements and do not plan to do a further degree or internship/training program (or job) in the USA at this time), the lucky ones are currently still in the USA. Once they return home, prospects for being able to return to the USA to continue their studies/training/etc. are at best uncertain. Anyone in such a position who is currently in the USA (or in some cases, elsewhere but not in mainland China) would be well advised NOT to return to China at this time.

Anyone in the situation needs to clearly understand the constantly evolving rules and restrictions and consult with their current/future university foreign student offices before making plans for a TPAC flight.

BTW, my understanding is that Chinese undergrads in the USA are generally not getting financial aid, and there would certainly be some from families with sufficient resources to use charter flights if doing so were considered to be necessary.
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Old Jun 3, 20, 2:57 pm
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Originally Posted by anacapamalibu View Post
There are hundreds of thousands of chinese students in US that can't afford $50K for a private jet seat to get back to China. If China opened up US flights..They could fill the cabins with passengers and freight on the way over, then return fully loaded with freight.
This would be very lucrative for airlines and reduce air freight rates. This squabble about airlines routes is not only costing business more money but affecting the health of people by delaying and increasing cost of PPE. The tariffs are a thorn in everyone's side,
just cancel them and get back to business.
Even if Chinese passenger flights are banned, those students could still return home via Canada, Japan, or South Korea, no?
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Old Jun 3, 20, 3:02 pm
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Originally Posted by SamayoFoodie View Post
Even if Chinese passenger flights are banned, those students could still return home via Canada, Japan, or South Korea, no?
With China's Five Ones policy, all international flights into China has been at capacity. In conjunction with reduced flights everywhere, and transit restrictions (HK, TW, Singapore), it's very difficult and costly to find even connecting to China these days.
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Old Jun 3, 20, 4:06 pm
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Originally Posted by travelinmanS View Post
The Chinese policy was ridiculous, arbitrary and unfair to both US airlines and to its own citizens. Trump is the only one crazy enough to stand up to them. Let’s see if it works.
This is the only way to counter a rogue government disregarding all fairness and human decency.

For once I fully support Trump administration's action.

If China wants to escalate and ban cargo flight, that's fine. Let's see who loses more.
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