-Your RP presumably gives you better odds than a visa
-I expect things will be easier in June
-a friend of mine got that special letter just 2 weeks ago, but procuring it was a PITA

I want to go to the US in May, myself. I'm less concerned a timely return than I am about the sky high ticket prices.

Hopefully what you say is true, but I have to finalize my plans in March, so want a solid Plan B in place. Right now my Plan C is to go through Taiwan (dual citizen), but I would have to quarantine for 2 weeks which I'm trying to avoid.

If you are able to go through Taiwan and use the Mainland Travel Permit to get into China then that is the best option you will have. Yes, it'll suck to quarantine twice, but maybe by that time they'll ease up on quarantine from Taiwan/HK/Macao. The wish list country you posted above doesn't exist currently.

if you're thinking about June, probably Turkey

South Korea technically has a quarantine requirement, but the rules mention that you can leave early if it's specifically for the purpose of leaving the country (you'd be out the full payment for quarantine, though, I think)
and direct flights to Shanghai seem really sporadic and only on Spring Airlines (...)

you may wish to consider, though, that if you stay in an interim country for less than 14 days, most destinations will consider you to have transited through that interim country (instead of originating) for the purposes of their (destination country's) entry restrictions - I don't know the specific details for China

I caught a news blurb over the weekend, effective today, March 1, TPE is allowing international transit if the transit is under 8 hours and flights under the "same airline program", whatever that may mean. It may change, but hopefully any changes will be for the better and not worse. It may be worth checking into and see if flights to/from China are included in this.

Yeah the above is my plan C. I want to avoid using Mainland Travel Permit to enter China though as all my bank accounts, driver's license, etc. are linked with my US ID..

Under the current requirements my plan is to stay 14 days or more.

I saw that too, but my understanding is under current rules China would consider anything less than 14 days as having traveled from the US.

I looked at where China Eastern currently has direct flights into PVG, and spot checked several. All of them require blood serum tests and the special green code from the local embassy. Sucks.

This rule stems from the Chinese immigration authorities. As it stands no transits are allowed at all since you won't be able to obtain the green QR code from the local embassy/consulate if you transit. You have to be a resident in the country of origin (of the direct flight to China) to obtain a green QR code that would then allow you to board.

Ok this is useful and effectively shuts down most options for me.

I'm not being funny but I believe that what you seek is what most people returning to China would want and it's just not possible right now for pretty much anyone irrespective of the country you travel from or your residency/citizenship status.

They've been very effective at sealing off the borders to incoming travellers and strictly controlling who gets in and what happens in the first few weeks once you are in. They have their reasons and whether you believe it's an effective method of controlling imported Covid cases doesn't matter. It's the process now.

At the very least, avoiding quarantine in China is not a realistic goal. It's difficult enough to get entry if you're not a PRC national right now.

PRC nationals with long term visas for the countries they are in (like a USA green card) are also being denied the QR code needed to board the plane and come back to China. It’s not a good time to be leaving China now if you want to get back in a timely manner.

Those jokes just write themselves :D

Speaking of China Entry...
 

Not if you're the, ah, butt of the joke... :td:

China makes COVID-19 anal swabs mandatory for foreigners

I think this was specific to the USA. This certainly hasn't been the case in low risk countries like Australia.

Yes it looks like under current circumstances re-entering China wouldn't be something pleasant that I would want to pursue.

My return flight would be the end of July / beginning of August so the gamble I'd take would be in June when I need to decide whether to exit China or not...

One could argue that 5 cm up the bum is less unpleasant than 8 cm up the nose...