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Originally Posted by MW147
(Post 33153277)
So far Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have been about 95% effective against any disease and 100% effective against serious disease. It's not going to get any better than that. And if China is going to wait for zero cases to start allowing people back in, they will never open back up. Eventually if they do want to re-open they are going to have to accept people vaccinated with non-Chinese vaccines.
As for Chinese vaccines, aren't there multiple domestic China vaccines in addition to Sinovac? From what I have read it is going to be quite a while before China fully vaccinates the population unless they ramp up production of all of their vaccines. I generally travel to China twice per year, around the time of the Canton Fair. The April fair is not happening, I am starting to doubt that the October fair will happen. Those are perfectly logical thoughts I’m just not convinced that we live in a logical world right now. And I think China may capitalize on that and isolate itself and economically dominate for a bit. Do they really need foreigners flying in and out in the short term? I really don’t know. My company saw the writing on the wall and offered us these expat gigs knowing that international travel with China was going to be a problem for a long time. |
Docs list for visa applications https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lYaTswuYYCTXCJO09EGR3Q
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Originally Posted by GloballyServiced
(Post 33152726)
I’m afraid you’re right which is unfortunate because it likely means the 14 day quarantine brain swab process isn’t going away for years. And that’s regardless of vaccination status. China is probably the only large or economically relevant country with the ability to actually do that too.
Considering I will want/need to internationally travel a few times per year to visit family or HQ, this makes me doubtful to want to extend my expat gig. That’s 4-6 weeks per year in quarantine, yikes. |
Originally Posted by moondog
(Post 33155895)
I think they will start to relax the rules within the next several months. During its strictest implementation, not only were people stuck in hotel rooms, but they weren't even allowed to order food from outside vendors. My own quarantine (over a year ago) was actually pretty chill. I wasn't allowed to go to work, but could otherwise roam freely.
Now the quarantine I’m currently in has an airport nasal swab, airport throat swab, and 4 different nasal swabs throughout quarantine. They also come take your temp for you instead of reporting it via wechat twice a day. They do allow food ordering now but that was more of a logistics thing than a safety thing I bet. If quarantine drops to 7 days or less that would be great but I don’t know if that’s really rooted in a scientific reason. |
Originally Posted by gudugan
(Post 33142404)
To illustrate this point, let's say there are two people:
Person A is a US citizen who already got a non-Chinese vaccine Person B is a Chinese citizen working in the US who also got a non-Chinese vaccine Note: No Chinese vaccines are currently approved in the US (and in all probability, won't be) The above announcement seemingly makes it easier for Person A to get a visa, but they still have to go through quarantine as if they had no vaccine. The above announcement is not relevant to Person B, who still has to quarantine as if they had no vaccine. Person A and Person B may both be willing to get a second vaccine to avoid quarantine, but otherwise, seems like there is no point. |
Originally Posted by GloballyServiced
(Post 33155952)
If quarantine drops to 7 days or less that would be great but I don’t know if that’s really rooted in a scientific reason.
The next iteration of the policy was 7 days in a designated hotel ROOM with food delivered outside your door...followed by 7 days at home (with almost no monitoring). Then, it was 14 days in a hotel room followed by 7 days at home. Most of my friends who did the hotel drill loaded up on food at Costco (or similar) before they came back, and told me it wasn't that bad. I'm hopeful that China will either send doctors to hotels to provide vaccines or permit foreign vaccines within the next several months. We'll just have to wait and see, but I think the powers that be know that the hotel drill isn't well regarded, and I believe they do care about our happiness to some extent. |
Originally Posted by UA_Flyer
(Post 33156104)
Could you elaborate why it is easier for Person A to get a visa? From the embassy announcement, it points to Chinese vaccine is required.
Prior to this announcement, the process is quite complicated with PU letters and a lot of extra steps. In either case one is still at the discretion of the embassy whether they will actually give it to you. And if Person A doesn't want to get a Chinese vaccine this announcement doesn't mean anything to them. |
Originally Posted by moondog
(Post 33156210)
I was able to do my entire 14 days "at home", but the reality of "at home" was that I could go anywhere except for my office and buildings/malls that checked health codes (not many).
The next iteration of the policy was 7 days in a designated hotel ROOM with food delivered outside your door...followed by 7 days at home (with almost no monitoring). Then, it was 14 days in a hotel room followed by 7 days at home. Most of my friends who did the hotel drill loaded up on food at Costco (or similar) before they came back, and told me it wasn't that bad. I'm hopeful that China will either send doctors to hotels to provide vaccines or permit foreign vaccines within the next several months. We'll just have to wait and see, but I think the powers that be know that the hotel drill isn't well regarded, and I believe they do care about our happiness to some extent. If China does change quarantine policy for vaccinated foreigners, ill be scrambling for it. That would be a cherished moment. Til then I’ll wait it out. |
I've noticed in China when a new rule is made, it'll only progressively get stricter and stricter, ill-regard to what's happening. Despite China's "success" in fighting COVID the rules around the nation is stricter, not easier. My friend in Chengdu told me that the new leadership decided to make stricter rules for Szechuan that made traveling in-and-out a bear.
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Originally Posted by Cathay Dragon 666
(Post 33160096)
I've noticed in China when a new rule is made, it'll only progressively get stricter and stricter, ill-regard to what's happening. Despite China's "success" in fighting COVID the rules around the nation is stricter, not easier. My friend in Chengdu told me that the new leadership decided to make stricter rules for Szechuan that made traveling in-and-out a bear.
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Originally Posted by Cathay Dragon 666
(Post 33160096)
I've noticed in China when a new rule is made, it'll only progressively get stricter and stricter, ill-regard to what's happening. Despite China's "success" in fighting COVID the rules around the nation is stricter, not easier. My friend in Chengdu told me that the new leadership decided to make stricter rules for Szechuan that made traveling in-and-out a bear.
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Originally Posted by tauphi
(Post 33161199)
China isn't alone in tightening inbound quarantine measures. Australia and NZ both went through a similar process after closing their borders back in March 2020. As to tougher local policies, this is highly dependent on where you are.
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Originally Posted by yoyo
(Post 33165064)
True. NZ is even banning citizens from returning (after 17 positives out of 23 came from India) from India which is a step further than China Entry policy. Not the direction I am happy to see countries going.
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Originally Posted by travelinmanS
(Post 33160690)
I believe the local officials get punished if they have an outbreak in their neighborhood, district, city, or province. The incentive for them is to be very careful less they lose the golden ticket job and their kids lose access to their lambos and Ferraris. The change can only come from top down and with the economy humming despite the border being closed, I just don’t see them opening up anytime soon.
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Given the showcase importance of the Olympics, does FT believe that China will open up before Feb 2020?
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